In recent years, Quad members the US and India have bolstered Sri Lanka’s military capabilities, with additional support from Japan and Australia. Since declaring bankruptcy, Sri Lanka has increasingly depended on foreign assistance for military and infrastructure needs, even as the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa administration plans to reduce the Army to 100,000 by 2030. Chinese and Indian investments in various sectors, particularly in the Northern and Eastern regions, highlight the evolving landscape. The 99-year lease of the Hambantota port to China in 2017 significantly impacted the situation, raising questions about the $1 billion received and the $12.5 billion borrowed by the Yahapalana government at high interest rates, which warrants investigation by the then Auditor General.
by Shamindra Ferdinando
Having congratulated Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared that the former’s triumph at the Presidential Election marked a new chapter in China-Sri Lanka bilateral relations. The Chinese President called for deeper friendship and cooperation while proposing, what he called, a journey of mutual progress and prosperity.
Indian Premier Narendra Modi emphasized the importance of Indo-Lanka relations in the context of India’s Neighbourhood First policy and Vision SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region). Modi, too, declared his keenness to work closely with President Dissanayake.
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| Outgoing American Ambassador to Sri Lanka meets with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Colombo yesterday. |
Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha was the first Colombo-based foreign envoy to meet President-elect Dissanayake at the Pelawatte headquarters of the Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP), the leading party in the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB)/National People’s Power (NPP). Jha was followed by Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong. Both meetings took place at the JVP’s Pelawatte office on Sunday (22). On hand was MP Vijitha Herath, who received the Foreign Affairs portfolio two days later, hours before President Dissanayake dissolved Parliament at midnight on Sept. 24.
Dissanayake contested the Sept. 21 Presidential Election on the JJB ticket, his second attempt to win the country’s highest office. Dissanayake suffered a humiliating defeat at the 2019 Presidential Election.
In his congratulatory message Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to a new chapter in China-Sri Lanka relations against the backdrop of an unprecedented election result that brought an end to the two-party system. Obviously, both China and India intended to pursue their strategies meant to consolidate their position. The Asian nuclear powers are opening a new round here at a time the world is in deepening turmoil with two major conflicts – the Israel war in Gaza taking a deadly turn with the Jewish state attacking Lebanon, and Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine.
Putin quite rightly issued the warning in the wake of Western powers preparing to fire their long range missiles, positioned in Ukraine, at vital targets in Russia, using their intelligence inputs to guide them.
Bankrupt Sri Lanka has been trapped in the China-India conflict with the US throwing its weight behind New Delhi. Vijitha Herath, in his new capacity as the Foreign Minister, now faces the daunting task of steering the foreign policy scene without antagonizing either China and India. Having served as a parliamentarian since 2000, Herath is well-versed with long simmering issues and the developing situation as both powers seek to consolidate their positions here quickly.
The new President and his Foreign Minister are in an unenviable situation. The JJB will have to address opposing Chinese and Indian concerns as Sri Lanka’s major lenders wield immense clout.
As the leader of both the JVP and the JJB/NFF Dissanayake has the edge on all opposing political parties at the forthcoming General Election. Having already bagged the all-powerful Presidency and the Cabinet, the JJB/NFF, established in 2019, has a clear opportunity to comfortably win the November parliamentary election. But, dealing with longstanding Indian-US and Chinese concerns, as well as interests, would be quite challenging and problematic, as well.
Having been part of the UNP led political alliance that backed retired war-winning General Sarath Fonseka and then Prime Minister Maithripala Sirisena at the 2010 and 2015 Presidential Elections, respectively, the JVP cannot be unaware how the US brazenly pursued its interests, even at the expense of political stability here. The new President and his Foreign Minister face a herculean task in managing relations with New Delhi and Beijing.
Another issue of serious concern is Indian fishing fleet brazenly poaching in Sri Lankan waters. Successive governments have failed to address this vital issue. The poaching issue has taken a turn for the worse with some fishers responding aggressively to the Sri Lanka Navy efforts to contain the situation.
Acid test
Soon after the parliamentary election next month, the new government will have to take a stand, publicly, on the current year-long ban on visits by foreign research vessels imposed on January 1, 2024. Relentless US and Indian pressure compelled the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government to declare the ban that was only meant to bar Chinese vessels. The move quite obviously angered the Chinese.
During an official visit to Japan in early July 2024, the then Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, PC, told the state-owned news agency NHK that the ban would be reversed to ensure Sri Lanka has a neutral voice in the dispute of others.
“The government cannot have different rules for different countries and only block China. Sri Lanka will not take sides in a dispute between others,” Sabry said. The former Minister should have explained as to why in the first place the government declared a moratorium on ship visits if Sri Lanka remained neutral in disputes among other countries. Unfortunately, the ground realities are different.
In fact, India resents Chinese ship visits. In the run-up to the Sept. 21 Presidential Election, destroyer HE FEI and two amphibious warfare ships WUZHISHAN and QILIANSHAN arrived in Colombo. The Chinese move underscored the pivotal importance Beijing attached to such visits. During August, before the arrival of Chinese vessels, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Spruance and USS O’kane visited Colombo. They were followed by frontline Delhi class destroyer INS Mumbai. Interestingly, Chinese and Indian vessels arrived in Colombo on the same day (Aug, 26).
Both China and India will continue to test the new Sri Lankan administration. Whatever the Chinese and Indian game plans are, Sri Lanka won’t be able to appease both parties, simultaneously. Closer to the General Election, a section of the media would take up the issue afresh with the focus on Chinese conducting intelligence missions in the guise of research in Sri Lankan waters. Foreign Minister Herath, in his new capacity, attended the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. That was the first public function that he attended since taking oaths as the Minister. He holds scores of portfolios, in fact, portfolios that had been held by over 30 parliamentarians are now shared by three – President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya and Vijitha Herath
Among those present on the occasion were former Presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena. Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong used that opportunity to stress the vital importance of bilateral relations in the context of what he called China-Sri Lanka strategic cooperative partnership based on sincere mutual assistance and ever-lasting friendship. The Ambassador predicted the relationship would continue to gain great momentum on a higher level.
Ambassador Qi Zhenhong didn’t mince his words when he tore into the US-led camp. “We are all equal members of the international family. However, today’s world is far from being fair and just, with hegemony, high-handedness, and bullying being prevalent. The Law of the Jungle which leaves the weak at the mercy of the strong is resurfacing and clamours of “Might is right” are forcing their way. Humanity has once again reached a crossroads in history.”
With Foreign Minister Herath among the invitees, Ambassador Qi Zhenhong emphasized several important points. (1) The Communist Party of China (CPC) role in building a ‘great modern socialist country’ and national rejuvenation through Chinese modernization.’ (2) Move to implement more than 300 major reforms by 2029, ahead of the 80th founding anniversary of the People’s Republic of China (3) China’s imports from developing countries expected to exceed US$ 8 trillion between 2024 and 2030 (4) Commitment to Belt and Road cooperation (5) China-Africa cooperation in the context of cooperation among the global south and, finally (6) China-Sri Lanka relations spanning over 2000 years.
Let me reproduce the section that underscored the importance of continuous China-Sri Lanka relations at a time the latter was under tremendous pressure to restrict cooperation with the emerging Super Power.
Ambassador Qi Zhenhong said: “History has proven that no matter how the international situation changes or whether facing traditional or non-traditional threats, the Chinese government and people always stand firmly with the Sri Lankan government and people. China remains a trustworthy friend and reliable partner to Sri Lanka. Facts have repeatedly shown that the closer and deeper the cooperation between China and Sri Lanka, the more capable Sri Lanka will be in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, development and dignity, and in playing a bigger role in regional and international affairs.”
In contrast, Washington cuts a sorry picture, with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the likes, during their numerous visits to West Asia to ostensibly bring about a ceasefire, calls on regional players not to exacerbate the situation, especially after each major terrorist act carried out by Israel that is funded and armed to the teeth by the literal American deep state to carry out such acts. Recently during one such visit to Europe to garner support for the other conflict Washington is involved in up to its neck in Ukraine, a Polish member of the European Parliament plucked up the courage to ask him to get lost in public under the glare of the TV cameras.
While many honourable and wonderful members of the Jewish community, as well as a majority of Americans with a conscience are publicly speaking out against the continuing genocide that the despicable right wing Jews are committing against Palestinians with the full complicity of the same insidious deep state that President Eisenhower warned against more than a half century ago as the dangerous US military-industrial complex, to grab whatever lands the Arabs continue to hold between the Jordan River and the Sea, it is shocking to watch proverbial cheap Jews like Blinken continue to carry out this public charade destroying whatever standing the US has left in the world. But since much of the mainstream media is under the control of the deep state the world does not get to see the true picture of the sinister happenings yet.
However, the issues at hand, including the Israeli attack on Lebanon, including the target killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, cannot be discussed without taking into consideration the Oct, 07 Hamas raid on the Jewish State. It would be a grave mistake on the part of those opposed to Israel to believe Tel Aviv and Washington could ignore threats whatsoever. Yemen may become another theatre of war unless the Houthi movement ceased attacks.
What would be Sri Lanka’s stand on the developing situation in the Middle East?
Counter strategy
Obviously, Sri Lanka is in a dilemma. A developing crisis that may have far reaching consequences. Just weeks ahead of the recently concluded Presidential Election, India declared her intentions. Their National Security Advisor Ajith Kumar Doval’s meeting three main presidential candidates, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, accentuated the state of play. Eyebrows were raised when Pathfinder Foundation presented two vital policy documents which essentially dealt with post-Aragalaya economic direction (Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka: Policy Challenges for the New Government) and entire gamut of Indo-Lanka projects/issues (Bridging Borders: Enhancing Connectivity Between India and Sri Lanka). Clearly the Pathfinder move had the blessings of New Delhi as the document that dealt with Indo-Lanka matters was handed over to Doval before Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and top JJB official Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe received copies of the same. Dr. Abeysinghe accepted it on behalf of Dissanayake.
New Delhi reached an understanding with the then President Wickremesinghe regarding high profile project that dealt with maritime, air, electricity, economy and finance and land route between Dhanushkodi in India and Mannar in Sri Lanka -four-lane 40 km sea bridge estimated to cost as much as USD 4.9 bn. Wickremesinghe, elected by the SLPP parliamentarians in July 2022 as the eighth Executive President to complete the remainder of ousted leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s five-year term, pursued a questionable agenda.
Would President Dissanayake abide by the consensus on the controversial sea bridge? Such an arrangement and such other foolish measures could automatically result in Sri Lanka losing its independent status, jealously guarded for over two millennia. Would the new administration revisit this vital issue or go ahead with it in line with the consensus blindly reached by the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government with India?
The Presidential Election campaign conveniently discarded foreign policy issues. Three major contestants and the ruling party SLPP’s candidate Namal Rajapaksa never addressed foreign policy matters during the campaign. The parliamentary election campaign, too, wouldn’t take up the vital issues for obvious reasons. Utterly corrupt and irresponsible political parties seemed to be wholly incapable of appropriately addressing matters of utmost national importance.
Accountability issues
The new government should disclose its position on the ongoing Geneva process. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in the last week of August 2022 released a “comprehensive” report on the human rights situation here through as usual their blinkered eyes and as expected beating their breasts, while they and their pet INGOs continue to turn a Nelsonian eye to what is happening, especially in Palestine. It dealt with an entire range of post and pre-war developments, at the end issuing a series of recommendations. Successive governments simply rejected UNHRC criticisms but the process continued and now has reached a critical point.
The following section in the August report highlighted the gravity of the developing situation. The High Commissioner recommended that the Human Rights Council and Member States, as applicable:
(a) Cooperate in investigating and prosecuting alleged perpetrators of international crimes committed by all parties in Sri Lanka through judicial proceedings in national jurisdictions, including under accepted principles of extraterritorial or universal jurisdiction, through relevant international networks and mutual legal assistance processes, and in cooperation with survivors, families, and their representatives;
(b) Consider using other international legal options to advance accountability in Sri Lanka;
(c) Explore, as part of a wider range of accountability measures and consistent with international law, further targeted sanctions such as asset freezes and travel bans against individuals credibly alleged to have perpetrated gross international human rights violations or serious humanitarian law violations;
(d) Review asylum measures with respect to Sri Lankan nationals to protect those facing reprisals and; and
(e) Support OHCHR to continue its monitoring and reporting and its strengthened work on accountability for human rights violations and related crimes in Sri Lanka.
The Presidential Election was held in the middle of 57 sessions of the UNHRC (Sept. 09 to Oct 09).
Having backed the candidature of war-winning Army Chief the then General Sarath Fonseka at the 2010 Presidential Election, the JVP (JJB/NFF hadn’t been around at that time) cannot absolve itself of the responsibility for defending the armed forces on the Geneva front. The JVP threw its weight behind Fonseka at the time the party was under the leadership of Somawansa Amarasinghe.
In spite of the JVP having suffered at the hands of the armed forces during the 1971 and 1987-1990 insurgencies, the party not only backed Fonseka at the Presidential Election, it accommodated the warrior in a political grouping that contested the 2010 General Election under the symbol of Democratic National Alliance (DNA). The JVP-led DNA that had been founded in Nov 2009 won seven seats, including two National List slots.
The winning group, included Fonseka (later arrested and jailed by the Rajapaksa government.) The Sinha Regiment veteran was later jailed by a court martial and had to vacate his seat on Oct. 7, 2010. After a failed legal bid to save his MP status, Fonseka was replaced by Jayantha Ketagoda on March 8, 2011). The DNA group included Arjuna Ranatunga (former Minister) and Tiran Alles (former Minister), Anura Kumara Dissanayake (former Minister), Vijitha Herath, Sunil Handunneti and Bimal Ratnayaka.
What would be the new government’s stance on the accountability resolution Yahapalana Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe co-sponsored it in Oct 2015? The JVP had been an integral part of that administration (2015-2019) after having backed the UNP strategy since the end of the war in May 2009. Anura Kumara Dissanayake who succeeded leader Somawansa Amarasinghe in Dec. 2014 quit the UNP-led alliance to form JJB/NFF in July 2019. The JVP or JJB/NFF conveniently remained silent on the controversial co-sponsorship of the resolution against the war-winning military and the wartime political leadership.
Wartime Commanding Officer of the Mi-24 helicopter gunship squadron retired Air Vice Marshal Sampath Thuyakontha, current Defence Secretary can brief the JJB/NFF leadership of the urgent need to address unsubstantiated war crimes allegations. New Foreign Minister Herath should examine the 2022 Canadian declaration of genocide here during the conflict taking into consideration the overall war crimes threat. Sri Lanka never bothered to counter Canadian strategy. The former government didn’t do anything except simply denying and denouncing highly politically motivated Canadian moves.
How do we counter the threat posed by those countries bending backwards to appease Tamil citizens of Sri Lankan origins baying for separate state here? Shouldn’t we be mindful of other commonwealth countries or those being influenced by Tamil Diaspora following the Canadians. The way the Canadians antagonized India in a bid to appease voters of Indian origin must prompt us to reexamine our lukewarm response.
Shamindra Ferdinando is a Deputy Editor of a Colombo-based daily newspaper, The Island.
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