According to The Economist, “the main reason for worrying about Mr. Dissanayake is not that he is a zealot; it is that he has little experience in government.”
As Anura Kumara Dissanayake embarks on his presidency, the clouds of political uncertainty are gathering over Sri Lanka, raising questions about his ability to navigate the turbulent waters ahead. Sworn in on September 23rd after a contentious run-off election, Dissanayake’s leadership comes with a controversial past. His party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), originated as a Marxist-Leninist movement responsible for two violent uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of Sri Lankans. While he has distanced himself from this “gory past,” the shadows of history are difficult to shake.
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| [Cartoon by: Awantha Artigala] |
According to The Economist, “the main reason for worrying about Mr. Dissanayake is not that he is a zealot; it is that he has little experience in government.” This lack of experience raises red flags as he attempts to implement painful reforms necessary for stabilizing the economy while managing the expectations of a populace desperate for change. The reality is stark: the economic landscape, devastated by the previous regime’s corrupt policies and misguided experiments, leaves little room for error.
Dissanayake campaigned on promises to eradicate corruption and renegotiate deals with the IMF, yet there are fears he might abandon these commitments. The potential fallout from such a decision could plunge Sri Lanka back into the economic crisis that sparked widespread protests and the ousting of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. As The Economist aptly notes, “if he reneges on that agreement, as some fear, Sri Lanka could be plunged back into economic crisis.”
Moreover, his leftist coalition holds a mere three of 235 parliamentary seats, casting doubt on his ability to secure the necessary support for any ambitious reforms. The looming elections in November may not provide the political stability that Sri Lankans are hoping for, as Dissanayake might find himself governing with a fragile coalition that includes members of the very establishment he pledged to dismantle.
For a nation still reeling from the impacts of economic mismanagement and political unrest, the prospect of disappointment hangs heavy in the air. The JVP, despite its revolutionary roots, is unlikely to support an investigation into the atrocities committed during the civil war, leaving many questioning the government’s commitment to reconciliation and accountability.
As Sri Lanka braces for an uncertain future, Dissanayake’s presidency is built on shaky ground, and the consequences of failure could reverberate through the nation for years to come. The people of Sri Lanka must confront the stark reality: with so many uncertainties ahead, the hopes for a better tomorrow may well rest on the shoulders of a leader with a troubled legacy and untested resolve.
Original Editorial
Anura Kumara Dissanayake: Sri Lanka’s New Ex-Marxist President
He is not as bad as he sounds, but the risk of disappointment is high
The political background of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who was sworn in as president of Sri Lanka on September 23rd after winning a run-off election, looks alarming. His party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), began as a revolutionary Marxist-Leninist movement that led two unsuccessful but bloody uprisings against the Sri Lankan state in the 1970s and 1980s. Tens of thousands of Sri Lankans were killed or simply “disappeared” in the insurrections and their suppression, which overlapped with a civil war between the government and Tamil rebels. To his credit, Mr. Dissanayake (widely known as AKD) has distanced himself from this gory past. Upon becoming party leader in 2014, he apologized for the killing of thousands of people by the JVP during the second, more brutal uprising when he was part of its student wing, and stated that the party would never again take up arms. (There has never been a similar apology for atrocities committed by those in power at the time.) He has also further softened the JVP’s ideology.
The party had been downplaying its Marxist origins for years, disavowing class struggle and its old rejection of private property (though members still call each other “comrade”). In his campaign this year, Mr. Dissanayake struck a conciliatory tone, stressing national unity and voicing support for a market economy. Since 2022, when mass protests ousted the then-president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a coalition assembled by the JVP and its associates has won broad support among middle-class Sri Lankans, whose living standards have been devastated by the economic crisis and the austerity policies designed to fix it.
The main reason for worrying about Mr. Dissanayake is not that he is a zealot; it is that he has little experience in government, barring a brief stint as agriculture minister two decades ago. Somehow, he must continue with painful reforms to keep the economy stable without alienating the people who elected him (see Asia section). It is an almost impossible task. The economy collapsed under Mr. Rajapaksa’s corrupt, eccentric regime, which divvied up power among the president’s relatives and indulged in outlandish policy experiments. Trying to turn the nation’s farms organic overnight, Mr. Rajapaksa banned imports of chemical fertilizers, causing food production to collapse and living standards to plummet. Sri Lanka defaulted in April 2022. Three months later, a crowd stormed Mr. Rajapaksa’s palatial residence, and he fled the country.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, his successor, brought down inflation, stabilized the currency, and struck debt-restructuring deals with the IMF and other creditors, including India and China. However, he failed to alleviate the economic pain felt by ordinary people and did little to curb graft or safeguard the rights of dissidents. He was also seen as too close to the Rajapaksa government that wrecked the country in the first place.
Mr. Dissanayake campaigned on promises to root out corruption and renegotiate the deal with the IMF. If he reneges on that agreement, as some fear, Sri Lanka could be plunged back into economic crisis. So, he is more likely to stick with it. But this means he will have little space to cut taxes or raise welfare spending, as he has promised. Debt payments are expected to gobble up half the budget next year, and Mr. Dissanayake’s ideas for boosting growth remain maddeningly vague. A failure to ease economic suffering could infuriate his supporters, undermining a government that is already weak. Mr. Dissanayake’s leftist umbrella group held just three of 235 seats in the parliament he dissolved this week and is unlikely to win a majority in the elections now scheduled for November.
So, he will probably end up governing with a fragile political coalition, possibly including members of the old establishment he promised to oust. Sri Lankans hoping for a reckoning with the past are likely to be disappointed, too: despite its rebellious history, the JVP is unlikely to support an investigation of atrocities committed during the long civil war.
Any or all of these issues may well hobble Sri Lanka’s new leader. Despite Mr. Dissanayake’s clear mandate, his presidency is built on shaky ground in a country that has little room for error. Wish him luck.
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