Sajith’s key advantage lies in the fact that he starts with 5.5 million votes, which he secured in the last presidential election.by Upul Joseph Fernando
‘This is the first election in Sri Lanka where one cannot predict a winner…’
This observation comes from an expert who conducts election polls in Sri Lanka, and it is a valid one. Since 1947, every election in Sri Lanka has followed a familiar pattern—there has always been a ruling party and an opposition party. Either the ruling party wins, or the opposition does.
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| File photo of Ranil Wickremesinghe with Sajith Premadasa during a previous election rally. |
In this election, however, there is no incumbent government. The opposition is vying for the 6.9 million votes that were with the previous government. The closest parallel might be the 1988 presidential election, but even in 1988, there was a ruling party, albeit a weak one. The opposition was split between the SLFP and the JVP. The JVP did not field a candidate for the 1988 election but aimed to divide the votes of Mrs. Bandaranaike, the main opposition candidate.
The ruling party at the time was represented by the UNP, whose candidate was Ranasinghe Premadasa. He won the presidential election, which was thought to be unwinnable without minority votes. At the time, the alliance between the JVP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party was gaining momentum. According to J.R. Jayawardena’s biography, businessmen who had formed the UNP were uncertain of Premadasa’s chances. Instead of financially backing him, they supported Mrs. Bandaranaike, convinced that she would win. But Premadasa secured victory, largely thanks to the support of the plantation sector and the Northern and Eastern minority votes. Key figures such as Thondaman, Ashroff from the Eastern Province, and the North’s E.P.R.L.F. were critical to his win. Mrs. Bandaranaike, on the other hand, relied solely on the Sinhala Buddhist wave.
Here are the districts where Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988:
Gampaha
Kalutara
Galle
Matara
Anuradhapura
Jaffna
With the exception of Jaffna, these districts were predominantly Sinhala-Buddhist. Meanwhile, Premadasa triumphed in most districts where minorities resided, such as Colombo, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Jaffna, Vanni, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, and Kegalle. In Sinhala-Buddhist majority areas, Premadasa won by small margins.
Here’s a breakdown of Premadasa’s key wins:
He won Colombo by 22,000 votes.
He won Hambantota by 1,855 votes.
He won Kurunegala by 16,439 votes.
He won Polonnaruwa by 6,219 votes.
In the plantation, Northern, and Eastern districts, Premadasa secured a significant majority. Despite his losses in major Sinhala-Buddhist districts, Premadasa still managed to capture 50% of the total vote.
‘Is the same going to happen this time…?’
It’s hard to say, but when we analyse how the elections are shaping up in the districts, the current competition between Sajith and Anura bears similarities to the 1988 contest between Premadasa and Mrs. Bandaranaike. In 1988, O.C. Abeygunasekara and the JVP fragmented Mrs. Bandaranaike’s vote base, and even some UNP members were intimidated by the JVP’s poll boycott, which put Premadasa at a disadvantage.
Today, when Ranil splits Sajith’s votes, and Pohottuwa votes that would have gone to the JVP are also fragmented, Namal and Dilith are similarly weakening the Pohottuwa vote, just as the JVP and O.C. did in 1988.
Looking at the districts, the struggle between Mrs. Bandaranaike and Premadasa in 1988 mirrors the current rivalry between Sajith and Anura.
In Colombo, as in 1988, Sajith is likely to win. Anura will likely take second place, with Ranil possibly in third. It’s uncertain whether Namal will surpass Ranil.
In Gampaha, Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, but Sajith seems more likely to win this time. The Catholic Church, which openly supported Mrs. Bandaranaike back then, is even more active now. Sajith may edge out a small victory, with Ranil and Namal battling for second and third.
Anura is expected to win Kalutara, where Mrs. Bandaranaike triumphed in 1988, with Sajith likely in second place.
In Matara, the heartland of the JVP, Anura is also expected to win, with Sajith trailing in second place.
In Kandy, as Premadasa did in 1988, Sajith is likely to win, with Anura in second place.
In Galle, despite Mrs. Bandaranaike’s 1988 victory, Sajith and Anura are neck-and-neck this time. Either could take the district.
Hambantota, a stronghold for both the JVP and Pohottuwa, is expected to go to Anura this time, unlike Premadasa’s win in 1988.
In Kurunegala, where Premadasa triumphed in 1988, Sajith is again favoured, having launched his campaign there. Anura will likely come in second.
Anura is expected to win Anuradhapura, where Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, with Sajith in second.
In Polonnaruwa, where Premadasa won in 1988, Anura seems more likely to win this time, although Sajith could challenge him if he can attract votes from Maithri and Roshan Ranasinghe’s supporters.
Moneragala is expected to go to Anura, even though Premadasa won there in 1988. Sajith may place second. In Badulla, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988. Ranil and Anura will compete for second place. In Nuwara Eliya, as in 1988, Sajith is expected to win, with Ranil and Anura fighting for second place. In Kegalle, Sajith is expected to win, with Anura in second, as was the case in 1988. Matale should also go to Sajith, with Anura trailing, similar to 1988. Ratnapura, which Premadasa won in 1988, will be a close contest between Sajith and Anura this time.
In Puttalam, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988, with Ranil and Anura competing for second place. In Batticaloa, Ampara, and Trincomalee, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988, with Ranil and Anura vying for second place. Vanni is also expected to go to Sajith, as it did to Premadasa in 1988, with Ranil in second. In Jaffna, Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, but this time Sajith is expected to win, with Ranil in second. Thus, Sajith has a high chance of winning 15 districts, while Anura may win 5. Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa will be closely contested. Even if Anura wins both, he will secure 7 districts in total.
‘So, does this give Sajith an advantage?’
Sajith’s key advantage lies in the fact that he starts with 5.5 million votes, which he secured in the last presidential election. Hakeem, Rishad, Mano, and Digambaram, along with Sajith, are fighting to retain those votes. The missing factor is the Tamil National Alliance, which has yet to announce its support. Ranil, who did not back Sajith in 2019, controls 500,000 to 600,000 votes, while the TNA holds around 400,000 votes, with Sajith starting from 4.5 million.
‘So, Ranil is eating into Sajith’s minority votes?’
As much as Ranil chips away at Sajith’s minority vote, Pohottuwa votes that would have gone to Anura are also being divided. UNP and minority votes are fracturing faster than Pohottuwa votes that could have gone to Anura.
From the 2020 general election results, it’s clear that Ranil can disrupt Sajith’s minority vote base. At the time, the UNP was still a massive party, while the Samagi Jana Balavega was newly formed. The media ranked Pohottuwa first, the UNP second, and the Samagi Jana Balavega after the JVP.
Anura secured 400,000 votes in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections. He now needs an additional 4.1 million votes, which must come from the 6.9 million votes Gota received in 2019. Among these 6.9 million are votes from Pohottuwa MPs who have now sided with Ranil, Mahindaist Pohottuwa voters that Namal has won over, as well as the votes of Wimal, Udaya, and Dullas. Thus, these 6.9 million votes are now divided across five camps. Sajith will capture some of these votes thanks to support from Dullas, Dayasiri, Chandimal, Dilan, Shan Wijayalal, Godahewa, and others.
‘And if the Pohottuwa vote is divided, how can Anura win those districts alone…?’
Therein lies the problem. Namal entered the fray at the last moment. If Namal continues with the Mahinda frenzy, there is a possibility that he will lose to Ranil. Then he will break the Pohottuwa vote going to Anura.
Apart from Anura’s 400,000 votes in this presidential election, Anura, Ranil, and Dilith have promised votes yet to be cast. In that case, Namal has a vote base from Mahinda. Sajith has a fixed base of 4.5 million votes. Sajith is currently winning. This is true regardless of any polls done on social media.
Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online newspaper.
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