It should not be forgotten that the presidential elections are held in the backdrop of IMF-proposed austerity measures which has imposed subsidy cuts and heavy taxation.
by R Hariharan
Thirty-nine candidates filed their nominations for the presidential elections to be held on September 21. However, the number of candidates stands reduced with the passing away of one of the nominees Mohammed Ilyas, aged 78, on August 22 after brief illness. There is no woman candidate, though Sri Lanka boasts of electing Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranaike as the world’s first female prime minister as early as 1960. Among the 38 aspirants, 22 are from recognized political parties, while 16 are contesting as independents. Some of the candidates are veterans of many presidential elections in the past. Apparently, they are in the fray perhaps to split local votes, while enjoying the perks and publicity of contesting the presidential poll. In any case, all major political parties – the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the United National Party (UNP) and its clone Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) – are split over supporting interim President Ranil Wickremesinghe, contesting as an independent. This is reflected in the support groups of the contestants.
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| Presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa addressing a political campaign rally. |
The real contest is between three men: Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, leader of the opposition SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake representing the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) led National Peoples Power (NPP) combine. Namal Rajapaksa, the scion of the Rajapaksas, is in as an afterthought when Dhammika Perera, billionaire businessman and former minister of investment promotion, declined to contest on SLPP ticket. The other well-known names in the fray are Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka (independent) who led the Sri Lanka army to victory against the Tamil Tigers and Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, seasoned politician of SLPP, representing National Democratic Front, a combine of minor parties. Aragalaya activist Nuwan Bopage is endorsed by the Frontline Socialist Party, formed by dissidents of JVP.
Internal wranglings among Tamil parties have split their strength after the largest Tamil party – the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) – skewed its political narrative. Now, Ariyanethiran, former ITAK MP, has filed his nomination as an independent candidate, endorsed by the EPRLF, PLOTE, TELO and Tamil Peoples Alliance. ITAK MP Sumanthiran aptly summed up the impact of this mindless move in his X message: “If the Tamils vote in large numbers for Ariyanethiran, the course of Tamil politics will take a more extremist turn. If they do not vote so, the Tamil nationalist cause will be weakened. Whatever the result, the ultimate losers will be Tamils.”
Muslim politicians are on the backfoot, particularly after the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Both Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and Bathiudeen-led All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) are supporting SJB. They had no other option, after the Rajapaksas patronised anti-Muslim fringe elements of Buddhist clergy.
The Institute for Health Policy (IHP)’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent for July 2024 showed that Dissanayake and Premadasa leading neck and neck (37 percent and 36 percent respectively each within the margin of error) but with both at less than 40 percent of all adults. IHP also said July saw a continuing surge for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose support grew to 23 percent. At the time of the survey, the SLPP had not declared Namal Rajapaksa as its candidate. However, support for a generic SLPP candidate remained unchanged at 4 percent.
Manifestos galore
Dissanayake: Opinion polls always do not translate into votes; we have seen it in India and in Sri Lanka. However, both Premadasa and Dissanayake are attracting huge crowds in election rallies. Dissanayake’s past record as a minister was not memorable; he had fared poorly in the last presidential election. So, his lead in the opinion poll is apparently driven by youth, who had rallied together during Aragalaya protests. However, Dissanayake has been bending over backwards to refurbish his image. His 233-page long election manifesto’s title “A Prosperous Nation, A Beautiful Life” is aspirational, trying to cash in the systemic collapse the country had faced. According to him, the manifesto was developed through extensive discussions and analysis with stakeholders across 39 sectors and industries over the past two years. It outlines a summary of its plans for the development of various sectors, including engineering, IT, the economy, social issues, education, and health.
Premadasa: Sajith Premadasa’s SJB manifesto focuses on the well-trodden path of refining existing systems. The manifesto titled ‘A win for all’ consists of 5 pillars, including, building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing Government service, protecting quality of living and safeguarding the nation. Dr Harsha de Silva outlined the party’s 10-point comprehensive plan to steer Sri Lanka towards sustainable economic growth, centred on transparency, accountability and inclusive development. He asserted the party’s “model is a synthesis of economic freedom, the belief in markets and economic justice, the belief in equity and everybody gets a piece of the pie.” SJB promises to create an independent public prosecutor to eliminate conflicts of interest in corruption cases involving the Attorney General’s office. The Party’s plan also includes introducing public procurement laws, e-procurement platforms, asset recovery regulations and enhancing transparency in public financial management. On economic stabilisation it outlined measures to manage the debt crisis, continue negotiations and engage with the IMF to amend certain terms while maintaining debt sustainability.
Wickremesinghe: Despite low ratings, President Wickremesinghe is banking on his performance as Interim President. He has been listing his achievements in the economic turnaround after the country was declared bankrupt. In Phase I he focused on addressing the immediate foreign exchange crisis, which helped reduce fuel queues, improve the availability of essential items, shorten power cuts and resume food production. To prevent major food crises cash transfers were made to vulnerable communities. In Phase II, the root causes of macroeconomic vulnerabilities were addressed to stabilize the economy. Comprehensive reforms in fiscal and monetary policies, State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the financial sector. This enabled the country to move from a primary budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2021 to a surplus of 0.6% in 2023. Inflation has also dropped significantly and key economic indicators such as foreign reserves and the exchange rate have shown marked improvement. It came at the cost of severe austerity measures and hike in taxation rates, increasing the burden on the common man. Conscious of this, Wickremesinghe is taking up with the IMF a proposal to raise the income tax band from Rs 500,000 to Rs 720,000. However, there were glaring aberrations of corruption and misgovernance under his watch. Despite this, as a suave dealmaker, Wickremesinghe has been able to attract support across all the national parties including and some of the minor parties.
Namal: SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa is banking on an economic vision aimed at doubling the economy from $ 90 billion to $ 180 billion within a decade. He has emphasised a two-part strategy focusing on immediate relief package and a sustainable integrated growth plan built on the foundational principles of “Mahinda Chinthanaya”. How he proposes to do it in a decade when his family has ruined the economy is a matter of fantasy!
India watch
NSA’s visit: Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, visited Colombo to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with member states of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) and the Charter for the Establishment of the CSC Secretariat in Colombo on August 30. Apart from India, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka are members of CSC. He had official talks with President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. He also met with leading presidential candidates including Sajith Premadasa of SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of NPP. The NSA also met representatives of various political parties, including Tamil leaders from the North, East, and Upcountry. He is reported to have told them not to “waste the votes of the Tamil people” [by voting to common Tamil candidate] and try to negotiate with a candidate who could win and secure the aspirations of the Tamil people through talks. The NSA’s visit showed India’s keen interest in the presidential poll in Sri Lanka.
Indian and Chinese naval ships in Colombo: The Colombo Port saw warships of India and China making a port call on the same day – August 26. India’s guided missile destroyer INS Mumbai made the first port call. The Indian warship was bringing spares for the Dornier maritime patrol aircraft used by the Sri Lanka Navy. It was the eighth Indian warship to visit Sri Lanka this year. Hours later, three PLA-N warships— guided missile destroyer Hefei and amphibious dock landing ships Wuzhishan and Qilianshan — also reached the port. The Chinese warships were visiting Colombo for three-day resupply after completing Peace-Unity 2024 joint exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, according to Chinese media. The warships of the two nations successfully conducted a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) with SLNS Vijayabahu separately on August 29.
End note
It should not be forgotten that the presidential elections are held in the backdrop of IMF-proposed austerity measures which has imposed subsidy cuts and heavy taxation. Steep increase in prices have reduced the disposable income of most of the people. Jean Jacque Rousseau said “Those that are slow in making a promise are the most faithful in performance of it.” This applies to current situation when Premadasa and Dissanayake are making promises to remove systemic aberrations. While Wickremesinghe is riding his success in triggering the economic recovery, Premadasa is harping on his father Ranasinghe Premadasa’s performance as a President to improve the system. On the other hand, Dissanayake wants a radical systemic change. So ultimately the voter has two alternatives to choose: Between Wickremesinghe, the Deal maker, and Premadasa, the Lotus eater, who can improve the existing system for complete economic recovery? Or, trust Dissanayake to introduce a new socialist system to take the country to complete economic recovery.
Col. R Hariharan is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies
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