Putin Is Preparing a Long War Against the West

Ukraine was one of 15 Soviet republics, and Putin used a lengthy article published on the Kremlin website to explain why he believed Russia's southern neighbour and its people were an integral part of Russian history and culture.

by Kazi Anwarul Masud
 
NEGOTIATIONS WERE UNDERWAY TO END THE WAR IN UKRAINE THROUGH A SUMMIT BETWEEN THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT AND UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT

The German daily Die Welt has just revealed the existence of a 17-page peace agreement that could have ended the war in Ukraine just weeks after Russia began its invasion. Negotiators from both sides had worked hard on the agreement between February and April 2022, and the original version of this special document has now been made available to the German media. “In March 2022, only a few conditions were missing for the resolution of the conflict, which was to be ‘negotiated by Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit meeting – which never took place’.”

Vladimir Putin attends an inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, May 7, 2024. Russia will overcome all obstacles and achieve its goals in development, Vladimir Putin said Tuesday when he was sworn in as Russian president. (Xinhua/Cao Yang)


RUSSIA INSISTED UKRAINE RENOUNCE ALL MILITARY ALLIANCES, INCLUDING NATO MEMBERSHIP

Die Welt reports the conditions issued by Moscow to Kiev: the renunciation of all military alliances, including its membership in NATO, the adoption of permanent neutrality, “partial demilitarisation, the reduction of Kiev’s ground army to 85,000 soldiers instead of one million, and the maintenance of Russian troops in Crimea, annexed since 2014.” What could Ukraine expect in return? Its right to self-defence. “In the event of an armed attack against Ukraine, the guarantor states would have undertaken to help Kiev exercise its right to self-defence, as guaranteed by the United Nations Charter, within a maximum period of three days.”


PUTIN’S LAMENTATION OVER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION


In December 2021, President Vladimir Putin lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago as the demise of what he called “historical Russia,” stating that the economic crisis which followed was so severe that he was forced to moonlight as a taxi driver. Putin’s comments, released by state TV, fuelled further speculation about his foreign policy intentions among critics, who accuse him of planning to recreate the Soviet Union and possibly attack Ukraine—claims the Kremlin dismissed as fear-mongering. “It was a disintegration of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union,” Putin said of the 1991 breakup, in comments aired as part of a documentary film titled Russia. New History, reported by the RIA state news agency. “We turned into a completely different country. What had been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost,” Putin remarked, referring to the 25 million Russian people in newly independent countries, part of what he called “a major humanitarian tragedy.”


PUTIN CLAIMS UKRAINE WAS PART OF THE SOVIET REPUBLICS


Ukraine was one of 15 Soviet republics, and Putin used a lengthy article published on the Kremlin website to explain why he believed Russia’s southern neighbour and its people were an integral part of Russian history and culture. This view, however, is rejected by Kyiv as a politically motivated and oversimplified version of history. The West has accused Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops near Ukraine in preparation for a possible attack.

MOSCOW’S FEAR OF NATO’S EXPANSION INTO FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS

The Group of Seven wealthy democracies warned Moscow of massive consequences and severe costs if it attacked Ukraine. For Moscow, the growing NATO embrace of neighbouring former Soviet republics—and the perceived possibility of alliance missiles in Ukraine targeted against Russia—is a “red line” it will not allow to be crossed. Putin has demanded legally binding security guarantees that NATO will not expand further east or place weapons close to Russian territory. Washington, however, has repeatedly affirmed that no country can veto Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. In 2014, Russia seized the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine, prompting the West to impose sanctions on Russia. The Kremlin insisted that Russian troops posed no threat and that Moscow was being demonised for moving troops around its own territory. Putin and Biden have agreed to hold more talks.


PUTIN AND JOE BIDEN AGREE TO HOLD MORE TALKS AMID TENSIONS OVER TROOP BUILD-UP NEAR UKRAINE

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to hold more talks amid tensions over a Russian troop build-up near Ukraine. The Kremlin expressed that Putin would like to meet in person at some stage. East-West relations, which have sunk to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, remain strained by the Russian military presence near Ukraine.

CONCLUSION

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014 and backed separatists who took control of a swathe of eastern Ukraine that same year and who continue to fight Ukrainian government forces. The G7 warned Moscow that further military aggression against Ukraine would result in massive consequences and severe costs in response. “We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future,” the G7 stated. A Russian Embassy statement released before the joint G7 document was reported criticised Britain’s frequent use of the phrase “Russian aggression” during the G7 meeting as misleading, claiming it was designed to rally the G7 against Russia. “Russia has made numerous offers to NATO on ways to decrease tensions. The G7 forum could be an opportunity to discuss them, but so far we hear nothing but aggressive slogans,” the embassy statement said.

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a retired Bangladeshi diplomat. During his tenure, he worked in several countries as the ambassador of Bangladesh including Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and Germany