The ideology that the JVP has inculcated in its cadre is different from its pronouncements on the public stage and TV talk shows. Nobody knows what that ideology is.
Here is the final part of the interview, following the publication of Part Two yesterday. In this segment, Dr. Dayan Jayatillake focuses on the forthcoming presidential elections in Sri Lanka.
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| A juxtaposition of leaders, with Dissanayake's image merged with Pol Pot's 1980s photo posing with his grandchildren in Anlong Veng |
Q. As we approach the final phase of this interview, Sri Lanka is set for a presidential election in one week. How do you perceive this election compared to the previous eight? President Wickremesinghe claims to have rescued the country from a deep quagmire, while Sajith Premadasa, whom you appear to support, argues that he seeks genuine legitimacy through a popular mandate. Why do you believe President Wickremesinghe may not be the right choice at this juncture? What makes Sajith Premadasa a more suitable candidate?
A: Sajith Premadasa is more of a (moderately) progressive Realist than either President Wickremesinghe or the JVP-NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. He is a centrist who combines an excellent education; an upbringing with political, social and international exposure; a deep, second-generation concern for the poor and the needy; extensive experience in government and opposition, and a rare commitment to the combination of rapid economic growth and rapid socioeconomic equity. I think Sajith has a basically correct economic paradigm, and that’s the most important starting-point. He also leads a broad coalition, the Samagi Jana Sandhanaya, which has a number of highly competent and experienced former Ministers from centre-left administrations.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is the ultimate representative of the Old Guard, the ancient regime, who believes in continuity without change and a neoliberal economic policy. He is driving an agenda of total privatisation and foreignisation, i.e. the liquidation of the state sector of the economy.
Anura Dissanayake has little experience in Government and administration, is an utterly untested personality who explicitly condemns the last 76 years of Sri Lanka’s achievement since Independence in 1948 and promises complete ‘system change’ This reminds of either Boris Yeltsin who changed the system and caused Russia including Russia’s economy to collapse, and Cambodia’s Pol Pot who had a concept of Year Zero, because he condemned and rejected everything that had gone before. I regard Anura’s nihilism as dangerous to Sri Lanka.
Q. Anura Kumara Dissanayake is also expected to secure a significant portion of the vote. However, some pre-election analyses may be manipulatively biased and misleading, driven by ulterior motives, and tailored to influence specific segments of the electorate. If Dissanayake were to win, what would be the likely scenario for Sri Lankan society?
A: I think that there will be a flight of capital to start with. Anura and the JVP-NPP have some bright academics, mostly management economists, with them, but no one with either top-notch credentials or real-world experience. I do not see how Anura can successfully address the economic crisis. He doesn’t have the requisite theory, praxis, or partners/allies.
Q. I saw some political commentators arguing that what is happening in the country is a power shift from the Elite class to the non-elite class. Some well-educated individuals also believe this. Having witnessed a series of internal conflicts within the JVP due to various reasons, including ideological differences, it is rare to see in-depth political views beyond the focus on popularity driven by manufactured hatred towards opponents, as seen with the NPP. Do you think that the JVP or its broader alliance has any projections for structural changes, similar to those observed in other countries, from Castro’s Cuba to Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo’s recent election victory in Mexico?
A: I have long urged the JVP-NPP (publicly and privately) to learn from the successful experiences of the Left in Latin America. I refer to Pink Tides 1 and 2. A hallmark of these waves was the pluri-party coalitional character of their project. A keyword was Frente Amplio or Broad Front. In its insular arrogance which dates back to its inception in 1965, the JVP-NPP has refused to study and incorporate the best practices of left success stories from Latin America to Nepal or even a state like Kerala.
Q. I recently spoke with a journalist from a Tamil daily who mentioned that during a meeting at Viyath Maga, a platform supporting Gotabaya Rajapaksa, you explicitly stated that Gotabaya was not the right choice and then promptly left the meeting. As we know, shortly afterwards President Rajapaksa was forced to leave the office and tendered his resignation from abroad. In my opinion, that was one of the most disgraceful events in Sri Lankan politics. Given your predictions at that time, if Sajith Premadasa does not win, what scenarios might unfold?
A: My first critique of Gotabaya and prediction of his failure was well before he was elected President. I did so in my regular column ‘At Variance’ in the Daily Mirror, in mid-2018, while slamming his much-applauded speech at the Viyath Maga -2 at Shangri-La the previous day. I focused on his economic doctrine and predicted the conflict that would ensure!
As for Anura, we have to understand that his party, the party he leads, the JVP, dominates the political movement he leads, the NPP. The JVP is led by its Politbureau and Central Committee, the complete composition of which we know nothing about. The highest decision-making body of the JVP is the party Congress. I don’t think even a well-informed journalist like you knows of the number of party Congresses in the JVP’s history; the last one and its dates; and the decisions of the last Congress. I certainly don’t.
This is vital because the party will be guided when in Government by the doctrine and decisions of its last Congress which its Central Committee and Politburo are pledged to uphold, as its party leader Anura Dissanayake. You cannot successfully operate a complex, vulnerable Open Economy inserted into the world economy, with such secretive ideological ‘software programming’.
The political structure of the JVP and the NPP which it dominates are in contradiction with the needs and requirements of decision-making and navigation of the open economy which is reeling from a debt crisis. At best, Sri Lanka under Anura and the NPP will be like it was under Dr NM Perera and the LSSP in 1970-1975. At worst we will be like Venezuela without the oil!
Q. Recent media reports and YouTube commentators have speculated about potential violence following the upcoming election, possibly leading to a state of emergency. This speculation echoes concerns similar to those experienced in India in 1975 when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared a state of emergency amid political turmoil and unrest. Understanding the nature of political violence in the country, do you foresee a potential for such escalation in the future? If the situation worsens, what should be the response of political leaders and other responsible parties to prevent or address such a scenario?
A: The ideology that the JVP has inculcated in its cadre is different from its pronouncements on the public stage and TV talk shows. Nobody knows what that ideology is. The JVP’s refusal to repent over at least the murders of leftists during the 1980s is a bad sign. Even now, the JVP-NPP leaders sound as if they aren’t sure whether they are trying to win an election or win a revolution—the same ‘revolution’ they attempted in the 1980s, 35 years ago — through electoral methods.
It would have been much safer if the JVP-NPP had experienced democratic electoral partners and allies – like Dullas Alahapperuma—but as Anura delightedly admits, they “shut the door” on such a strategy. Therefore, I cannot rule out post-election turbulence stemming from their unpublished doctrines and ideology endorsed at their clandestine party Congress.
Q. Regardless of the election outcome, the new president will face significant challenges despite their promises. With the national debt exceeding USD 100 billion and essential services like education, health, and food facing budget cuts, how should the new leader begin addressing these issues?
A: As President Premadasa did in 1989, with an All-Parties Conference, in order to ascertain on what issues a broad national consensus can be arrived at and what that consensus can be.
Q. Considering the three main contenders, how do you foresee Sri Lanka’s situation in 2025 in terms of their leadership capabilities, foreign policy, and other critical areas?
A: If Sajith is the President we shall be fairly OK all-round. The economy will be managed relatively rationally, guided by Sajith’s cautious pragmatism; poverty will be reduced through timebound programmes ; foreign policy will need a little sorting out, but I think that the Parliamentary balance after an election will ensure that on economics, Constitutional change and international relations, Sajith’s SJB doesn’t stray too far from a middle path and the parameters of the national consensus sourced in the island’s ethos.
Q. Finally, following the presidential election, a parliamentary election will determine the composition of the new government with around 3,000 candidates vying for 225 seats. Given the current lack of traditional political parties and the rise of political alliances, what do you anticipate for the outlook of the new government?
A: I look forward keenly to the parliamentary election to produce a representative parliament which will serve as both support and counterweight, catalyst and corrective, to the newly elected President.
Concluded
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