Key Figures and Critical Thresholds You Need to Know for Sri Lanka's 2024 Election on September 21
by Our Political Affairs Editor
As Sri Lanka gears up for its 2024 presidential election, the stakes are higher than ever. With a total of 17.1 million (171,00,000)registered voters and a high turnout projected at 80%, the race is expected to be intensely competitive. The key figures are striking: candidates will need a minimum of 6,840,100 votes to secure victory in the first round, a daunting target that demands not just solid voter bases but significant new support.
The major players are already making headlines with their strategies to capture the crucial new votes. The SJB, with a strong but insufficient 2,771,980 votes from the last election, faces a Herculean task of adding over 4 million new votes to challenge effectively. Meanwhile, the NPP, starting from a modest 445,958, must rally an additional 6 million voters—a tall order that underscores their uphill struggle. The UNP, led by Ranil Wickremesinghe, finds itself in a particularly precarious position, needing a staggering 6.6 million new votes to overcome its current deficit of just under 250,000.
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| An election campaign rally in a Colombo suburb ahead of the presidential elections on September 21. |
Adding complexity to the race is the distribution of 1 million new votes. If these are split evenly, the SJB and NPP could each gain an extra 400,000 votes. However, even this boost will not suffice for either party to reach their targets. The SJB would still be short by nearly 3.7 million votes, and the NPP would need to bridge a gap of almost 6 million votes. In contrast, Rajapaksa’s Podujana Peramuna, which secured 6.85 million votes previously, is well-positioned to leverage its existing support and potentially capture the presidency without needing a substantial influx of new votes.
As the election date of September 21 approaches, the political landscape remains fluid, with campaigns intensifying and voter sentiment shifting. The battle for Sri Lanka’s presidency is set to be a dramatic and high-stakes contest, with each party working tirelessly to sway undecided voters and maximize their appeal. With such high voter expectations and a complex array of variables, the 2024 election promises to be a pivotal moment in Sri Lanka’s political history.
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ELECTION 2024: Key Numbers
Total Registered Voters: 17,100,000
New Registered Votes: 1,000,000
Probability of Voting: 80% of 17,100,000 = 13,680,000
Votes Needed for Victory (First Count): 6,840,100
Last Election Results (August 2020)
SJB Votes: 2,771,980
NPP Votes: 445,958
UNP (Ranil) Votes: 249,435
Rajapaksa (Podujana Peramuna) Votes: 6,853,690
Additional Votes Needed for Victory
SJB: 6,840,100 – 2,771,980 = 4,068,020 new votes needed
NPP: 6,840,100 – 445,958 = 6,394,142 new votes needed
UNP (Ranil): 6,840,100 – 249,435 = 6,590,665 new votes needed
Distribution of 1,000,000 New Votes
If we assume 80% of these new votes will be distributed to the major parties, that’s 800,000 votes.
Distribution Assumptions:
Equal Distribution between SJB and NPP:
Each would get 400,000 additional votes.
Votes for SJB:
Previous Votes: 2,771,980
Additional Votes: 400,000
Total: 3,171,980
Additional Votes Needed: 4,068,020 – 400,000 = 3,668,020
Votes for NPP:
Previous Votes: 445,958
Additional Votes: 400,000
Total: 845,958
Additional Votes Needed: 6,394,142 – 400,000 = 5,994,142
Votes for UNP (Ranil):
No new votes added to the assumption
Previous Votes: 249,435
Additional Votes Needed: 6,590,665
Potential Victory Scenarios
SJB:
Votes Required: 3,668,020
Feasibility: With an additional 400,000 votes, they would still need 3,668,020 new votes to secure a victory.
NPP:
Votes Required: 5,994,142
Feasibility: With an additional 400,000 votes, they would still need 5,994,142 new votes to secure a victory.
UNP (Ranil):
Votes Required: 6,590,665
Feasibility: They would need to overcome their current deficit without additional new votes.
Can Rajapaksa Collect the Required Votes?
Rajapaksa (Podujana Peramuna): They secured 6,853,690 last time. They may not need new votes if they can maintain or slightly increase their previous support. However, their electoral bases have dwindled.
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