A decade ago, President Putin declared his intention to downsize Russia’s conventional forces and rely more on nuclear weapons. This shift went largely unnoticed in the West amid the anti-Putin hysteria.
by Eric S. Margolis
A furore has erupted in North America over reports that Russia plans to expand its armed forces by an additional 180,000 men, bringing the total to 1.32 million. This increase brings Russia close to matching China’s armed forces, which number about 2 million active soldiers. The pro-war right in the US and Europe is heralding this expansion as a harbinger of a looming East-West conflict, echoing the old Cold War refrain, “The Reds are Coming.”
This scenario mirrors World War II when British propaganda convinced many that Hitler’s Germany sought global conquest, whereas, in reality, Germany aimed to restore its pre-World War I borders. A similar situation unfolded with Stalin’s Soviet Union, as both imperial powers had been ravaged post-1918 by French and British imperialists, with American complicity. Germany, in 1914, was driven to war out of fear of a two-front conflict involving France, Britain, and Russia.
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| File photo of Red Army during USSR [Anatoly Morozov/МАММ/МDF/russiainphoto.ru] |
Large numbers can be intimidating, but Russia’s 1.32 million soldiers must be viewed in the context of its vast expanse of 17 million square kilometers and over 12 time zones, stretching from Eastern Europe to the frozen Barents Sea. With more than 100 ethnic groups and religions, Russia remains one of the last great 19th-century empires, including breakaway Ukraine.
The sheer scale of Russia’s borders and its need for stability require a large military presence. During World War II, the USSR mobilized an astounding 34 million soldiers, while the USA deployed 16 million and China at least 14 million. By comparison, today’s numbers seem modest.
Despite the current numbers, Russia’s 1.32 million soldiers and the new 180,000 recruits will strain its already fragile economy. One factor that allowed Stalin to mobilize such a large force was the significantly lower cost of wartime equipment in the 1940s compared to today.
Russia is aware that the US plans to deploy its formidable Navy and Marine Corps against its Pacific provinces, particularly Vladivostok. This region relies on two vulnerable rail lines, the Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainlines, for connectivity with the rest of Russia. During a visit to Beijing, Chinese intelligence officers indicated that the Chinese People’s Army could potentially seize Vladivostok in just two days.
Russia’s naval forces face significant strategic weaknesses, a fact highlighted by the disastrous Russo-Japanese War of 1904. Today, with much of Central Asia independent and Moscow struggling to maintain control in the Caucasus, as evidenced by the Chechen Wars, Russia’s capacity to project power is further strained.
Maintaining control over its vast territory likely necessitates a million-plus strong army. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which stretches over a 1,000 km border, demands even more troops, underscoring the immense challenges Russia faces.
A decade ago, President Putin declared his intention to downsize Russia’s conventional forces and rely more on nuclear weapons. This shift went largely unnoticed in the West amid the anti-Putin hysteria. Consequently, the Red Army was significantly reduced, with its tank armies and air forces cut back in line with broader European trends. The US-engineered coup in Kiev further complicated matters, revealing that the once formidable Red Army had become a paper tiger, led by ineffectual generals.
Once, the mighty Red Army inspired fear. Today, that power seems a distant memory.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis, September 2024
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