International Influence in Sri Lankan Elections

After Sumanthiran announced the decision of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), they realized that not only Ranil’s Sirikotha headquarters but also Anura’s JVP headquarters were filled with excitement.

by Upul Joseph Fernando

In the electoral history of  Sri Lanka, there is a single signal or sign that shows where the international community stands. That signal is the minority parties. Among the minority parties, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in the North is significant. The leader of the main party within the TNA, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), Sritharan, recently went to London and stated that before traveling to London, he met with the South African and Canadian ambassadors in Sri Lanka and discussed the matter of fielding a Tamil common candidate from the TNA.

Ahead of the Presidential Election Scheduled for September 21: Attendees at Sajith Premadasa's Political Rally

Though Sritharan won the party leadership, there is a court case challenging his appointment. Despite winning the leadership with 134 votes, allegations of election fraud were made, and an injunction was issued against him. Following this, Sumanthiran has been managing the party, and the Central Committee of the party has accepted his leadership, largely due to his international recognition. Sumanthiran is the one who raises the issues of the people in the North to the international community. The people of the North know this. Though there is some discontent among the people of the North regarding the international community, as they feel the international community did not support the LTTE during the war, the belief that the international community is there to protect them influences their stance during elections.

A senior leader of ITAK, Maavai Senathirajah, initially criticized the Central Committee’s decision to support Sajith, but he did so due to personal issues with Sumanthiran. However, he later withdrew his criticism and stated that he supports the party’s decision to back Sajith, owing to international pressure. Sridharan is funded by the international community in the Tamil diaspora; it is likely that Sridharan will similarly change his stance as Maavai Senathirajah did in the future. Otherwise, Sridharan’s London visit may extend to other countries as well.

The other issue is that Sridharan has obtained a liquor license from Ranil’s government. Some members of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) who support the Tamil common candidate received licenses from Ranil’s government. Sumanthiran and other Tamil leaders are threatening to expose them, so they are hiding, also they are hiding for fear that Ranil might expose them if they support Sajith.

After Ranil became president, the international community thought he would unite the United National Party (UNP) and bring the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) under his control. They even supported Ranil’s economic plans with assistance from the IMF for this purpose. However, Sajith skillfully managed to keep the SJB and the Samagi Jana Sandhanaya national parties under his leadership. After that, the international community started losing hope in Ranil. At the time, Ranil himself was spreading news in the media about his possible collaboration with Sajith, where Ranil would become the presidential candidate and Sajith the prime minister, which was an effort to draw the attention of foreign nations as they distanced themselves from him.

The international community eventually abandoned Ranil due to his undemocratic actions and his disregard for court rulings. However, they watched closely to see who would take the lead between Ranil and Sajith during the presidential election. This was because Ranil and his advisors had convinced the international community that Ranil had a ‘silent vote,’ which would come out as soon as the election was announced, potentially splitting the SJB into two or three factions.

Weeks after the nominations were submitted for the presidential election, Sajith’s rallies continued to attract large crowds without faltering, while Ranil’s gatherings drew only small numbers. Even in public opinion polls, it became clear that Sajith was ahead of both Anura and Ranil. Initially, Hakeem’s party, Rishad’s party, Digambaram, and Mano Ganesan publicly declared their support for Sajith. Later, Sumanthiran announced that the Central Committee of the ITAK had met and decided to support Sajith.

Sumanthiran’s statement was a political bombshell for Ranil’s election campaign. Ranil and the masterminds behind his campaign, who had been dreaming of Ranil’s victory, were suddenly awakened. Sumanthiran mentioned that there are a million Tamil votes in the North and East. When those votes were combined with the votes of Rishad, Hakeem, Digambaram, and Mano, it became clear to them that Sajith would easily secure the 5.5 million votes he received in 2019. Realizing this, they understood that Sajith was standing close to victory, and thus the president’s faction began a campaign to support Anura to win.

The first phase of this campaign was to promote the idea that Sajith and Ranil should join forces because Anura was going to win. This campaign was started by Talatha, who had defected to the UNP out of fear of investigations into corrupt dealings. They used Talatha for this purpose.

The second phase of the campaign was to push the narrative that Sajith couldn’t defeat Anura. Ranil started spreading this message on every platform. Through both these campaigns, Ranil was indirectly saying that no one could defeat Anura.

Ranil is no longer addressing the Pohottuwa (SLPP) voters. He is now appealing to UNP supporters and minority groups. Ranil knows that if he splits the Pohottuwa vote, the advantage will go to Anura. He also knows that if he weakens Sajith by splitting the UNP and minority votes, Anura will have a better chance of winning. It seems that Anura, without any shame, is seeking Ranil’s help. Otherwise, why would the JVP media have amplified Talatha’s departure from Sajith’s camp on social media?

It has become evident to the anti-JVP and anti-Sajith UNP supporters, as well as Pohottuwa supporters, that Ranil is giving Anura oxygen through a cylinder. Realizing this, they fear that votes intended for them may now go to Sajith to defeat the JVP. This is why Ranil is now accusing Sajith of inflating Anura. The truth is, at present, the common enemy of both Anura and Ranil is Sajith. Knowing that he can’t win, Ranil’s goal is now to ensure the UNP’s enemy is defeated.

In 1994, after the UNP’s defeat in the general election, Gamini Dissanayake, in an attempt to form a UNP government, held discussions with the Muslim Congress, a coalition partner of Chandrika. Ranil stepped down as prime minister and, through President Wijetunga, had Chandrika appointed as prime minister, breaking Gamini’s dream of becoming prime minister in a UNP government.

In the 2010 presidential election, Fonseka, the common candidate put forward by the UNP, said that Ranil caused his defeat by pulling him down. In the 2019 presidential election, Sajith publicly stated that Ranil made a deal with Gotabaya to ensure his defeat. Now, Ranil is trying to help Anura win. Anura, too, is using Ranil to drag down Sajith so that Ranil’s sins will fall upon Sajith and pave the way for Anura to win. The deal between Anura and Ranil is visible, especially since the independent state television channel brought Anura onto its show the night before the postal vote, inflating Anura’s image.

The international community is aware of this. After Sumanthiran announced the decision of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), they realized that not only Ranil’s Sirikotha headquarters but also Anura’s JVP headquarters were filled with excitement. The international community has played a role in three elections in  Sri Lanka.

The first was the 1994 general election, where the US embassy provided security for Chandrika on the day of the vote. The second was the 2015 presidential election, where Mahinda publicly stated that the US defeated him in that election. In this third presidential election, the role of the international community is quite clear—they are here to support victory, not to ensure defeat.

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online newspaper.