With the new caretaker government in power following deadly protests that ousted the Prime Minister, the next three to six months will be critical in revealing how India navigates its relationship with Bangladesh.
by Imtiaz Ahmed
I think three critical factors probably contributed to what Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said. First, he wanted to address the domestic constituency and assure the Indian people. It was pretty clear from what he mentioned in his speech, “We have to deal with the unexpected.” From the word “unexpected,” it became clear that he mainly meant the changes in Bangladesh, which have been seen as major setbacks for India by its media and as some Indian policymakers have indicated after August 5. I think India needed to assure the domestic constituency, “Look, it was unexpected, but we are looking into it,” “We are monitoring the situation, we know what is happening,” etc. I am sure much of India must have been thoroughly shocked, given that for the last decade or so, it had been saying that it had the best relationship with Bangladesh. Now, there is a missing point: India’s relationship was not with the people of Bangladesh; it was with a particular political party or group. And that has failed. I am sure they have now understood that it is far better to have a relationship with the people than with a particular group of people or political party.
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| The heavily polluted Buriganga River is a major river in Bangladesh, flowing past the capital city, Dhaka. Historically, it has been an important waterway, serving as a key trade route for centuries. [ Photo: stenincontest.com] |
The second point is that we are now in a multipolar world where India wants to acquire its position as one of the major powers. Its economy has already surpassed the UK and France in terms of volume. So, from that point of view, India also wanted to alert the US. Because the general narrative in India has been that the US was behind the uprising in Bangladesh, the defence minister also wanted to alert China at the same time. He tried to tell them that although changes have occurred in Bangladesh, India is prepared if anything happens. It has particularly alerted the US because India is involved with that country in many areas, including on the Indo-Pacific issue. But at the same time, India has increasingly shown that its foreign policy has to be The India Way (as per the title of the book of S Jaishankar). There’s a bit of consensus on that in India. While it has maintained a relationship with Russia despite the sanctions, it also has a relationship with China, particularly when it comes to BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and Myanmar. I think that was addressed in some way through this particular statement by the Indian defence minister.
The third factor is not to take Bangladesh for granted, as was done during the Awami League rule. So, I think that message has been put forward to the Indian hierarchies and the stakeholders. It is pretty straightforward because our chief adviser has pointed out a couple of things regarding Teesta water-sharing, border killing, reviving SAARC, and several other issues. Earlier, he also made a particular statement about the northeast. So, I think what the Indian defence minister wanted to say is that it is not going to be what it used to be in the last decade or so, when the Awami League was not a headache for them. Also, it wants to deal with Bangladesh’s new regime.
While these three factors are important, the ball is now in India’s court. It’s now up to them how they will deal with Bangladesh. But it’s too early. In the next three to six months, how India will deal with Bangladesh will become clear. If there is a meeting between the Bangladesh chief adviser and the Indian prime minister at the United Nations in New York, that could give us an indication of what kind of changes will come. But no doubt New Delhi is quite sure that this is a different regime from the Awami League one. So, they will have to deal with it accordingly.
Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Centre for Alternatives, Bangladesh, and a retired Professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka. He is also a Visiting Professor at Taylor's University, Malaysia.
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