Kyiv's forces launched the largest invasion of Russia since WWII
by Alexander Ziperovich
For the past four days, elite Ukrainian soldiers have been mounting a major offensive deep into Russia, supported by American and German armored vehicles, in what is a stunning cross-border invasion that has shocked the Kremlin, and which could potentially reshape this nearly 30-month war. After a long and dismal period of being mired in grim attritional combat, following the failure of its recent southern counteroffensive, Kyiv appears to be shifting tactics, and is bringing the war home to Russian territory in a way not seen before.
Incredibly, this marks the largest invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War, though unlike Hitler’s war of annihilation, Operation Barbarossa, this Ukrainian strike is entirely defensive, carried out against territory Russia has used to brutally attack Ukraine.
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| Armed Forces of Ukraine [File Photo] |
In any case, Vladimir Putin’s suddenly facing the most serious domestic security crisis since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted Wagner mutiny nearly marched on Moscow in June of 2023. Clearly, there were major intelligence and military failures by Russia that Ukraine has exploited, even as the incursion continues into its fourth day, unstopped and unbroken. If nothing else, it’s a major embarrassment for the Kremlin, and for Vladimir Putin personally.
Surprise, surprise
By Friday, Ukraine’s 80th Air Assault Brigade and several other fast moving units had gouged deep holes in Russia’s thinly defended border defenses, with fighting raging in numerous settlements at least 6 miles inside the Kursk region of Russia, with Ukrainian forces controlling roughly 130 square miles of Russian territory altogether.
Using the advantages of speed, audacity, and surprise, Ukrainian armored columns appear to have captured the settlements of Darino, Sverdlikovo, Gogolevka, Goncharovka, and Nikolaevo-Darino. They’ve entered the regional city of Suzdha, taking hundreds of Russian prisoners, and seizing a gas-metering station used to sell petroleum to Hungary and Slovakia. Ukrainian forces also successfully attacked a military airfield near Lipetsk, some 50 miles from the border.
Notably, the incursion appeared to demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to execute a successful combined arms maneuver, with artillery support, roving air defense bubbles, and electronic warfare systems enabling fast forward momentum for Ukraine’s mechanized attack. It’s a striking example of what NATO has been training Ukraine’s military to accomplish on the battlefield: complex, multifaceted operations relying on a synergy of different forces and units, or what the Pentagon calls combined arms combat.
Without directly acknowledging it, on Wednesday President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to refer to the attack: “The more pressure is exerted on Russia — the aggressor that brought war to Ukraine — the closer peace will be.” For his part, Vladimir Putin said “the Kyiv regime has launched another major provocation,” accusing Ukrainian forces of “firing indiscriminately” at “civilian buildings, residential houses, and ambulances.” That’s a deeply rich accusation from the man who authored this bloody conflict, and who’s forces have routinely engaged in chilling crimes against humanity on and off the battlefield, and who is currently wanted by the ICC for overseeing the kidnapping of Ukrainian children en masse, among other war crimes.
Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top military official, estimated that at least 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers participated in the invasion, even as the Russian Defense Ministry confidently (and falsely) asserted that it had repelled the attack. Regardless, it’s clear this is the largest Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory since the war began in 2022, and a clear departure from past cross-border strikes, which were mostly limited to small probing actions undertaken by Russian rebels and anti-Putin partisans, rather than Ukrainian regulars.
U.S. Stryker and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles were photographed taking part in the attack, leading to questions about whether Washington would support this kind of invasion, launched with Western weapons and armor. But State Department spokesman Matthew Miller quickly said that Kyiv has the right to defend itself against attacks launched from Russia, offering the same rationale used to justify cross-border strikes with American missile systems like the ATACMS and HIMARS.
Apparently, the U.S. has no problem with the attack, particularly given Ukraine’s struggles and setbacks on the battlefield recently, and Russia’s mounting gains. Rather, it’s part of the White House’s long and steady loosening of Ukraine’s rules of engagement with American weapons in Russian territory, as the war has dragged on and on, even as the risk of escalation remains ever present, with Vladimir Putin still regularly threatening to unleash nuclear war against his enemies.
Predictably, Russian state television is fulminating about the attack, with hardline propagandist Sergey Mardan suggesting Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons against the Ukrainian formations operating in Kursk, thus nuking Russia’s own territory. It’s the kind of reckless and insane rhetoric that’s become absolutely routine on wartime Russian state TV, as Russia’s professional propagandists rant and rave, demonizing Ukraine and idealizing nuclear war.
Still, despite the cartoonish propaganda emanating from Russia, the risk of nuclear escalation remains very real, particularly as Putin’s war bleeds further into Russian territory. Until this conflict ends, the specter of nuclear war will continue to haunt our civilization and humanity itself.
Strategic morass
Today, Putin convened his Security Council to discuss the situation, as his military commanders moved to send reinforcements to the areas under attack. Russian state television showed columns of soldiers, armor, rocket launchers, and artillery streaming toward the action, even as Ukrainian forces continued to make progress in and around the Kursk region.
Anticipating severe retaliation from the Kremlin, Ukrainian authorities evacuated 20,000 people from the neighboring Sumy region of Ukraine, the area from where the attack was launched.
In any case, it’s unclear how much farther Ukrainian forces will be able to move within Russia, nor what the larger strategic implications might be of this invasion. On some level, it’s likely to be a psychological balm for a traumatized and fatigued Ukrainian population, and a boost for morale in a military depleted by relentless combat against a vastly larger adversary.
During the last six months, the Russian military has made slow, grinding advances in the Donetsk region and elsewhere, at massive human cost, approaching something like 180,000 casualties in the last six months alone, with Ukraine estimating 582,910 Russian casualties since the war began.
That offensive is now thought to be at or near its culminating point, and it’s unclear if Ukraine’s advance into Russia might compromise the frontline in Ukraine itself. It’s believed that Russia likely has enough domestic troops on hand to deal with the Ukrainian breakthrough without withdrawing troops from the front in Ukraine, though that remains to be seen, at this point, and depends on exactly how far the Ukrainian breakthrough goes.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s invasion is likely designed to show the Kremlin and the world that despite 30 months of brutal and relentless warfare, the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain viable, dynamic, and committed to victory. Likewise, the move is also probably designed to boost Kyiv’s prospects at any future negotiations with Moscow, if and when serious discussions begin. It’s the kind of bold operation conducted by Ukraine earlier in the war, when lightning advances retook Kherson and Kharkiv, and came close to causing a full-blown collapse of the Russian lines.
However, we’re a long way from those days. Kyiv’s most important ally, the U.S., is consumed by its own upcoming elections, which could spell the end of American support for Ukraine if Donald Trump prevails. At the moment, though, it’s encouraging to see Ukraine changing the equation on the ground. If nothing else, it demonstrates that for all the blood and tears and suffering, Ukraine remains utterly undefeated. Instead, Ukraine’s still capable of humiliating the dictator in Moscow that unleashed this nightmare, and that’s something to celebrate.
Alexander Ziperovich is a Political analyst and Opinion columnist. He writes about politics, justice, foreign affairs, and culture, dissecting the larger historical and social context behind important events.
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