AK Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa Neck and Neck in July Voting Intent, While Ranil Wickremesinghe Sees Surge in Support
The latest update from the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) for July 2024 reveals that National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa are running head-to-head in voting intent. According to the provisional estimates of the Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, Dissanayake is slightly ahead with 37% of support, while Premadasa follows closely at 36%. However, both candidates fall below the 40% mark among all adults.
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| Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake |
Meanwhile, support for incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe has surged to 23%, marking a continued increase from previous months. The survey found that support for a generic Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate has remained static at 4%, with Namal Rajapaksa officially declaring his candidacy only in August.
Demographic Analysis: Youth and Minority Groups
The report highlights several key demographic differences among the leading candidates’ supporters. Dissanayake’s strongest base comes from the youth, where he secures a majority with 54% of the vote. His popularity is also notable among Sinhala voters (41%) and the wealthiest third of the population (42%).
In contrast, Premadasa holds the lead among the poorest third of voters, securing 42%, and enjoys significant backing from minority groups, with 51% support among Sri Lankan Tamils and 65% among Muslims.
Wickremesinghe’s Age-Driven Support
Wickremesinghe’s growing support is most apparent among older voters, with 38% of those aged 60 and above backing the president. His appeal is also stronger among women (26%) compared to men (17%), with his support evenly distributed across other demographic groups.
Analyst Insights
Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya, SLOTS polling director, attributes Dissanayake’s strength not only to his appeal among younger voters but also to his ability to capture a significant share of disaffected voters who had previously backed former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In comparison, Wickremesinghe’s initial rise in support came from this same group, while only one in five voters who supported Premadasa in 2019 now back the president.
Methodology and Future Updates
The IHP’s MRP model for this update is based on data from 19,015 interviews conducted between October 2021 and August 2024. The July 2024 data includes 701 interviews, with a margin of error estimated at 1-3%. The model uses multilevel statistical methods to assess voting intent based on respondents’ demographic characteristics, smoothing out month-to-month variations.
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