In the American scheme of things, of course, Biden’s willingness to agree to relaxation of the sanctions regime will significantly depend on Iran’s cooperation in security issues.
by M. K. Bhadrakumar
Iran’s new foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in an interview with Japan’s Kyodo news agency on August 22 set the foreign policy compass under President Masoud Pezeshkian in a new sequencing of priorities. Araghchi said as a crucial step toward removing sanctions on Iran’s economy and normalising trade with the international community, the Foreign Ministry will seek to manage tensions with Washington and rebuild ties with European states. He called for “earnest, focused, and time-bound negotiations.”
Later, he disclosed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emphasised two missions: “The first mission is to neutralise sanctions, which the whole government should follow. Our first goal is to neutralise the sanctions and its impacts on the people.”
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| Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (L) received President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet ministers, Tehran, Aug. 27, 2024 |
The foreign minister added, “Our priority is our neighbours. Our second priority is to expand the field of diplomacy to Africa and East Asia. The third priority is the countries that stood by Iran in difficult situations.”
Four days later, at a ceremony held at the Iranian Foreign Ministry on August 27 to honour and introduce Araghchi, Pezeshkian also underscored that his government’s priority is to look for ways to get the sanctions removed.
Earlier on the same day, while receiving Pezeshkian and his cabinet colleagues, Khamenei signalled his approval for renewed negotiations with the US over Iran’s nuclear program. (here)
These are of course opening shots. When a big ship changes course, it cannot but be over a wide arc that is hardly visible to viewers. Without doubt, Iran is at a historic crossroads in its long and difficult journey since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
The salience is that the Axis of Resistance is not topping Iran’s foreign-policy priorities. That vector plausibly continues in the matrix but somewhere lower down, for sure. Make no mistake, what we are hearing from Tehran is about direct negotiations with the US as the number one priority as the means to get relief from western sanctions, which is an imperative for accelerating the economy and is the lodestar for Iran’s national policy. Iran’s neighbours are keenly watching. To be sure, the Middle East is on the cusp of change.
Araghchi received phone calls from the foreign ministers of France and Germany, the British Foreign Secretary as well as the EU’s foreign policy chief to convey their congratulation on his appointment while also hinting they are ready for nuclear talks. (here, here and here)
The format of the talks needs to be decided. There is no question that the Western powers — the US and EU-3 — will not want the JCPOA format that included Russia. The Ukraine conflict is a geopolitical reality causing a breakdown in relations between the West and Russia.
Perhaps, the Western powers may have an open mind on involving China, being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and, given China’s influence with Iran. Indeed, the Biden administration is recalibrating the US-China “competition” with a view to lower tensions.
The 3-day visit to Beijing by Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his extensive consultations lasting fourteen hours with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi have been described as “in-depth, candid, substantive and constructive.” Importantly, President Xi Jinping received Sullivan at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The Chinese side, in an exceptional gesture, arranged a meeting for Sullivan with one of China’s vice chairs of the Central Military Commission, Gen. Zhang Youxia, who is Xi’s deputy. Indeed, the US and China agreed to work toward a phone call between Xi and Biden in the coming weeks, and Sullivan indicated the two could meet in person at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or Group of 20 summits later this year.
It is entirely conceivable that Sullivan’s discussions with Wang Yi touched on the Middle East crisis, which is a top foreign-policy priority for Biden, especially for its impact on the November 5 elections in the US. In the Chinese readout, Xi is quoted as telling Sullivan, “As two major countries, China and the United States should be responsible for history, for the people and for the world, and should be a source of stability for world peace and a propeller for common development.”)
Coming back to the JCPOA, both Tehran and Washington are on the same page that the 2015 nuclear deal cannot be resuscitated and is off the table. Which means, a new format of negotiations and a fresh agenda need to be agreed upon.
Enter Norway. What lends enchantment to the view is a phone call received by Pezeshkian from the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on Thursday. The Iran nuclear issue and Middle East crisis prominently figured in the conversation. Norway is a EU / NATO member country with strong credentials as a mediator to negotiate international disputes, and is one of the US’ closest and most trusted allies.
In this overall backdrop, the “return” of former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the diplomatic arena is noteworthy. He will be holding the position of vice president for strategic affairs in the new government. Araghchi used to be Zarif’s deputy as nuclear negotiator in the Hassan Rouhani administration. The team is back on the saddle. Both are regarded highly in the Western capitals.
There is a great sense of urgency in kickstarting the nuclear negotiations, since Iran continues to expand its stockpile of uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels. But Washington’s objective will also be to engage Tehran on the range of regional security issues. The Western powers are particularly focused on Iran’s perceived military support for Russia in the Ukraine war.
In the American scheme of things, of course, Biden’s willingness to agree to relaxation of the sanctions regime will significantly depend on Iran’s cooperation in security issues. By keeping Russia out in the cold, Americans would probably have an edge, but Zarif and Araghchi are skilful negotiators, too.
Supreme Leader has conveyed in no uncertain terms that he fully backs Pezeshkian’s presidency. Khamenei’s decree on the Presidency says: “I endorse their [nation’s] vote for the wise, honest, people-oriented, learned Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian… With sincere prayers and wishes for his success, I would like to remind that the nation’s vote and my endorsement will remain intact as long as his consistent approach in following the straight path of Islam and the Revolution continue.”
Ayatollah Khamenei’s message is as much to the Iranian nation as to the Western audience.
M. K. Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat by profession. Roughly half of the 3 decades of his diplomatic career was devoted to assignments on the territories of the former Soviet Union and to Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Other overseas postings included South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Turkey. He writes mainly on Indian foreign policy and the affairs of the Middle East, Eurasia, Central Asia, South Asia and the Asia-Pacific.
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