What will come next? A bloody conflict, or could this herald a breakthrough?
by Victor Cherubim
Ukraine’s strike on the Russian border, the largest by a foreign force since World War II, has dramatically altered the course of the war, at least for now. Ukraine launched a long-range attack against three Russian air bases, including one reportedly located just 400 meters from the border. This was a drone strike, the first of its kind since the beginning of the conflict. The area around Savasleyka Airfield in the Nizhny Novgorod region, believed to house jets that drop glider drones on Ukrainian territory, was targeted.
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| A multistorey residential building in Kursk, Russia, was hit, according to local authorities, by debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [Anatoliy Zhdanov/Kommersant Photo via Reuters] |
Russia claimed it has downed 117 Ukrainian drones, while Ukraine reported shooting down a Russian SU-34 fighter jet on 14 August 2024 in the Kursk region. This claim remains unverified, but it has led to a mass evacuation.
Ukraine stated that the operation was aimed at protecting itself from long-range strikes launched from Kursk. A Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman asserted that Ukraine is not interested in capturing the region but is focused on protecting its people. The situation remains difficult, as Ukraine’s Western allies have indicated they were not given prior notice of the raid. A Russian spokesman claimed that the front was stabilised and that they were regaining control. Both sides acknowledged that the incursion was aimed at improving Kyiv’s negotiating position.
In light of these reports, war analysts note that Ukraine has no immediate plans to withdraw, likely due to the sensitive nature of the ongoing operation in Kursk. However, the mood is not one of jubilation; war is war. Some observers liken the significance of this latest operation to the liberation of Kherson in southern Ukraine in late 2022.
The big question is: Can Ukraine sustain its position in the long term? This is perhaps doubtful. Will this change the dynamics of the war, or will it increase Ukraine’s negotiating power, especially in the context of a possible initiative? The outcome remains uncertain.
The war, as it stands today, is far from over. Was Russia caught off guard, or did it intentionally draw its enemy into its territory? This is difficult to determine. President Putin has not provided any further details on what Russia’s response might be.
What will come next? A bloody conflict, or could this herald a breakthrough? In my layman’s opinion, the answer may depend on who the next U.S. President is. A large-scale incursion over several months may not be militarily feasible. But for now, Ukraine has changed the public narrative from being on the defensive.
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