In the coming years, the country will lose its status as one of the least developed countries, which grants it various trade and financing privileges.
by Kazi Anwarul Masud
Sheikh Hasina’s fall in Bangladesh highlights history’s cruel irony. The ousting of the leader signifies the end of a period marked by the very oppression her father fought against during Bangladesh’s inception. While writing this article, I incorporated segments from noted Indian analyst Commodore Uday Bhaskar and partly from the world-famous British magazine The Economist. These references do not detract from the essence of the article.
 |
| Hasina |
INTRODUCTION
An unexpected and dramatic development plunged Bangladesh into turmoil on Monday when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina abruptly resigned after 15 years in power and fled to India in a military aircraft. This ignominious exit followed weeks of student-led protests over the job quota system and brutal reprisals by security forces. Images of jubilant protesters ransacking the Prime Minister’s residence underscore the intensity of the anti-Hasina sentiment. This situation mirrors what occurred in Colombo in July 2022, when then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka amid similar protests and the ransacking of the presidential palace. Bangladesh, a relatively young nation, was known as East Pakistan before gaining independence in 1971 after a liberation war with Pakistan, in which India played a major role.
FLIGHT OF SHEIKH HASINA DESCRIBED AS SECOND LIBERATION OF BANGLADESH
The unseating of Hasina has been described as the second liberation of Bangladesh. This is deeply ironic as Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was the founding father of the fledgling nation and had fought against the oppressive and genocidal rule of the Pakistani army. The same charges are now being levelled against his daughter, adding to the trauma of Bangladesh’s collective memory.
BANGLADESH ARMY PROMISES TO CONTROL THE TROUBLED NATION
Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, appointed in June, has taken control of the troubled nation. He has assured that an interim government will soon be formed. The country’s parliament has been dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections, a key demand of the student protesters. The army, which has long played an influential role in Bangladesh’s politics, will continue to do so to manage the current turbulence. It will oversee the formation of an interim government and prepare the country for free and fair elections, which Hasina neglected over the past decade.
DR MOHAMMED YUNUS APPOINTED CHIEF ADVISOR
Nobel Peace Prize winner and microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus has reportedly been appointed as the chief adviser to the interim government, a demand made by students wary of another cycle of army rule. Even so, the army will need to stabilize a domestic political environment marked by deep fissures and a divided public.
CONFUSING POLITICAL SCENARIO IN BANGLADESH
Bangladesh, predominantly Muslim, is divided between an old guard supportive of Pakistan and its Islamic ideology and veterans of the 1971 liberation war who inherited Mujib’s mantle and share his vision of a moderate, secular state. The Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party are the main political parties, but the now-banned Jamaat-e-Islami party has emerged as a significant voice and could be included in the interim government. The current protests appear to have gained traction organically, with no clear political affiliation or direction aside from demanding better governance and free and fair elections. Assuaging public discontent and dealing with bitterly opposed political factions will be difficult for the interim government. The economy appears fragile, and major international backers have distanced themselves from Hasina’s administration due to its policies of domestic repression. Under Hasina, Bangladesh engaged with all major powers but appeared to tilt towards India. South Asian states have sought to balance their engagement with both New Delhi and Beijing, with China increasing its presence in the Indian periphery in recent years, much to Delhi’s dismay.
HASINA’S FLIGHT IS A MAJOR SETBACK FOR INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY
The manner in which Hasina fled the country is a significant setback for Indian foreign policy, given Delhi’s substantial support for her rule due to security and strategic considerations. As a result, India might find itself alienated from both Bangladesh and its people. Delhi’s immediate priority will be to ensure Hasina’s personal safety and political status. Reports suggest that the UK is unwilling to extend full protection from potential investigations, while the United States has refused to comment on claims that Washington revoked Hasina’s visa. If Hasina stays in India for an extended period, it will not be the first time she has received such shelter. When her father was assassinated in 1975, then-Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi provided protection and helped her return to Bangladesh to strengthen the country’s nascent democracy. Ironically, Hasina is now accused of undermining the same democratic impulse in a ruthless manner. This tarnishes the Sheikh Mujibur legacy, poignantly symbolised by the imposing statue of Bangladesh’s founding father being torn from its pedestal in Dhaka. The rhythms of history can be unforgiving of authoritarian hubris.
VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE ECONOMIST
As mentioned earlier, the exit of Sheikh Hasina was dramatic, as described by the British magazine The Economist. On August 5th, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, fled the country she had ruled with an increasingly harsh grip since 2009. She was driven out by a vast display of people power on the streets of Dhaka and will be replaced by a caretaker government backed by the army and led by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace laureate.
OUSTING HASINA TERMED AS “SECOND LIBERATION”
Many Bangladeshis are calling it a “second liberation,” half a century after independence. Yet, to fulfil the promise of the moment, Bangladesh must do more than oust an ageing autocrat; it must also clean up a corrupt political system. The good news is that the economy is resilient and civil society is robust. The problems lie in venal political dynasties and enfeebled institutions that have failed to stand up to them. Yunus has a short time to set the country on a democratic path. His success or failure will shape the lives of 173 million Bangladeshis and influence the rivalry between China, India, Russia, and the West.
RIGGED ELECTION AND WITHDRAWAL OF ARMY SUPPORT LED TO SHEIKH HASINA’S DOWNFALL
Bangladesh has been in turmoil for some time. A rigged election in January confirmed that the country had descended into thuggish one-party rule. In July, mass student protests erupted against the reimposition of job reservations for descendants of liberation war veterans, which protesters viewed as patronage for Sheikh Hasina’s party, the Awami League (AL). The unrest evolved into a broader uprising, and the government responded with a shoot-to-kill curfew. Over 450 people have died. After the army withdrew its support for Sheikh Hasina rather than spill more blood, mobs ransacked her palace. They vandalised statues of her father, who led Bangladesh to independence and around whom Sheikh Hasina had built a personality cult. Yunus, 84, a revered microfinance pioneer, now finds himself in charge. It is not yet clear who will be in his administration, how it will function, or for how long. For much of the time since Bangladesh’s break from Pakistan in 1971, it has endured either military rule or a messy form of democracy, with power alternating between two dynasties, the AL and its rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Things seemed to improve in 2008 when Sheikh Hasina won a free election. Economic growth, already robust, approached 7% annually for the next decade, driven by garment manufacturing. Rising incomes and active NGOs helped reduce poverty, boost literacy, and increase women’s participation in the workforce. Bangladesh was a star among emerging markets. Diplomatically, Sheikh Hasina maintained close ties with India while also forging military and commercial links with China and seeking cordial relations with the West. However, at home, she grew increasingly oppressive. Many opposition politicians were imprisoned before the last election, which was widely criticised as farcical and boycotted by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
ECONOMIC WOES AFFECTED POLITICAL STABILITY
Two-fifths of young people lack regular employment. The AL controlled the allocation of everything from teachers’ jobs to graduate openings in business. Since 2020, inflation and capital flight have undermined stability. The country’s foreign reserves have fallen by more than half since 2021, to $19 billion. In 2023, Bangladesh took out a $4.7 billion loan from the IMF to stabilise its balance of payments. Disillusionment has spread from the street corner to the boardroom.
PROFESSOR YUNUS’ DIFFICULT TASK TO RESTORE ORDER
Professor Yunus faces an immensely difficult task. His priority should be to restore order and prevent waves of retributive violence, which have previously blighted Bangladeshi politics. This means ensuring that the caretaker government, while led by technocrats, also includes representatives of the protesting students and all political parties, including the AL. Avoiding pressing dangers will be even harder. The country could fall prey to Islamist extremism, as Pakistan has. If the financial squeeze worsens, Bangladesh could become dependent on China for cheap loans and arms, destabilising relations with neighbouring India and potentially eroding democracy further.
FRESH ELECTION MIGHT RESTORE A REFORMED BNP
A fresh election might restore an unreformed BNP to power. Having suffered persecution under Sheikh Hasina, its leaders are eager to regain control. Yet, the BNP also has a record of thuggery and cronyism. Professor Yunus needs to act swiftly. The unelected caretaker government must not remain in office for too long, lest it lose legitimacy or, worse, its military backers be tempted to cling to power indefinitely. Professor Yunus should therefore aim to hold proper elections on a reasonable timescale, but first, he will need to clean up institutions that Sheikh Hasina captured, such as the electoral authority and the courts. Economically, the government should seek more external funding to mitigate the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis and pursue a crucial new trade deal with the European Union. The existing generous terms for Bangladesh’s garment exports will expire in 2029.
PROFESSOR YUNUS ASKS POLITICAL PARTIES TO COME UP WITH NEW FACES
In the coming years, the country will lose its status as one of the least developed countries, which grants it various trade and financing privileges. Most importantly, Professor Yunus must encourage the political system to embrace new ideas and leaders, reflecting the aspirations of the country’s young, growing, and increasingly urban population. This requires ensuring that new parties can form and campaign without harassment and asking the AL and BNP to install new leaders who are not part of the founding dynasties. Sclerosis at the top has poisoned politics, a tall order in Bengal. Despite its daunting problems, including severe vulnerability to climate change, Bangladesh has advantages. Unlike most troubled countries, it has an economy capable of rapid growth.
CONCLUSION
The West has a moral duty to support Professor Yunus. As a leader with moral authority, Yunus deserves backing, especially if his military backers try to interfere. America, Europe, and Japan, as Bangladesh’s major markets and sources of finance, have influence. India, which has often backed strongman rule, needs to contribute as well: if it desires a stable neighbourhood, it should advocate for democratic renewal and offer financial support. Bangladesh matters and must not be allowed to fail.
Kazi Anwarul Masud is a retired Bangladeshi diplomat. During his tenure, he worked in several countries as the ambassador of Bangladesh including Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and Germany
Post a Comment