Belt and Road Initiative: A Critical Analysis

The initiative encompasses more than 60 countries (though figures vary), affects nearly 62 percent of the world’s population, and includes over 30 percent of global gross domestic product.

by Kazi Anwarul Masud

The Asia-Pacific region seems captivated by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which primarily focuses on developing infrastructure in participating countries. According to Eric Brown, a research analyst specializing in geopolitical economic risk, the BRI aims to connect China with both neighboring and distant regions along its southern and western frontiers through a massive infrastructure investment project. This includes roads, rail lines, ports, energy pipelines, and digital networks. The BRI promises to invest one trillion dollars, significantly more than the Marshall Plan used to rejuvenate the European economy. The initiative encompasses more than 60 countries (though figures vary), affects nearly 62 percent of the world’s population, and includes over 30 percent of global gross domestic product. Despite these impressive metrics, the BRI still addresses only a fraction of the region’s larger infrastructure needs.

This aerial photo taken on April 26, 2023 shows a construction site of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), a major infrastructure project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kelantan, Malaysia. (Xinhua/Zhu Wei)

ADB Estimates South Asia Will Need $26 Trillion Investment by 2030

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that Asia will require more than $26 trillion in investment between 2016 and 2030. The international community is also aware of the trade tensions between the USA and China, which could potentially trigger a global recession. Additionally, the BRI might aim to establish a China-led economic sphere in Eurasia, potentially replacing the West-led economic system that has dominated since World War II.

China’s Activities in the South China Sea Are Concerning

Critics argue that Bretton Woods institutions and their allies operate within a rule-based and legally enforceable system, whereas China’s activities in the South China Sea seem assertive and have raised concerns among neighboring countries with competing claims. Furthermore, despite existing proposals, the specific physical and conceptual boundaries of the BRI remain unclear. There is no definitive timeline for completion, and some projects that began before the official launch date are included retroactively. While the BRI’s infrastructure portfolio includes transportation networks, energy systems, and expanding elements like electronic, space, and polar infrastructure, little progress has been made aside from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is not widely accepted in Pakistan. For any international initiative to be successful, it must be mutually beneficial to all parties involved. The BRI aims to facilitate the export of overcapacity in equipment, steel, and cement; promote the internationalization of the Chinese currency; diversify energy trade; and foster rural economic development in western and southern regions of China that have not shared in the country’s remarkable economic growth.

BRI is Expected to Benefit China in Improving Foreign Market Diversification

The BRI is expected to benefit China by improving foreign market diversification, enhancing competitiveness, and potentially establishing a central political and economic power in Eurasia. Naturally, questions arise about the funding of BRI projects. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), comprising 93 member states, is a competing institution to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the New Development Bank (NDB), made up of BRICS countries, is also expected to support sustainable development and infrastructure projects in member countries.

Western Powers’ Discontent with China’s Attempt to Establish a Multilateral Bank Rivaling the ADB and World Bank

From the outset, the US has been displeased with the establishment of the AIIB, seeing it as a rival to the ADB and World Bank. Additionally, the US and Europe have expressed concerns about China’s authoritarian governance system.

The West Can Take Heart as China Faces Stagnant Growth

The West can find some reassurance in Minxin Pei’s conclusion in “China’s Trapped Transition,” which suggests that China has entered a phase of stagnation. Pei argues that China’s political system cannot be reformed due to entrenched corruption and the lack of institutional infrastructure to address these issues. Pei describes China’s situation as “self-destructive political dynamics inherent in an autocracy caught up in rapid socioeconomic change.” Fareed Zakaria notes that scholars believe there is a “zone of transition” for authoritarian countries, typically between $5,000 to $10,000 per capita GDP (in purchasing power terms), and China is at the upper end of this range. Given China’s level of economic, social, and educational development, it is unusual that China, among Asian nations, has seen almost no movement toward political reform.

Corruption and Slowdown in China’s Growth

Minxin Pei attributes the lack of reform to a corrupt but unified Communist Party that fiercely guards its power. Consequently, the Hong Kong protests are unlikely to result in an Eastern European-style upheaval similar to the fall of the Soviet Union, and may more likely lead to another Tiananmen Square incident. China’s policy of providing loans has led to “debt diplomacy,” with some recipient countries now struggling to repay their debts. Examples include the Hambantota Port in  Sri Lanka and a Chinese-funded railway link in Laos.

Conclusion

There has been a significant shift from strong initial endorsement of the BRI to growing negativity and concern. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged caution, suggesting that the BRI could make partner countries “vassal states.” A Council on Foreign Relations report has expressed Indian concerns that the BRI might be a strategy to dominate Asia, warning of a “String of Pearls” geo-economic strategy where China could create unsustainable debt burdens for its Indian Ocean neighbors and potentially control regional choke points. While President Trump may view India as a counterweight to China, countries like Bangladesh must adopt a balanced approach with both nations. Despite our natural affinity with India, we must prioritize our national interests wherever they may lead.

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a retired Bangladeshi diplomat. During his tenure, he worked in several countries as the ambassador of Bangladesh including Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and Germany