The injustices and war in Palestine have become a critical issue of the global Muslim world. ISKP understands that any contribution to this issue will significantly support its rank and file, while also swaying influence in favour of the group.
by Rashane Jude Pintoe
The tentacles of terrorism have stroked the hearts of peace-loving people since time immemorial. The South Asian region alone has witnessed brutal chapters of terror and insurgency by multiple threat actors and groups – the rise of bloody communist insurrections like Sri Lanka’s JVP (now-NPP) in the late 80s, the brutal 30-plus years of LTTE terrorism ending in 2009, and the rise of Islamist terror groups in South Asia are just a few examples.
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| A man is seen in a destroyed building at the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip, June 3, 2024. (Photo by Mahmoud Zaki/Xinhua) |
The Islamic State (IS) rose as one of the most devastating terror entities in the 2010s, with so-called Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi rising to fame as the declarer of the IS caliphate in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Operational through extremist adaptations of Salafi ideology, IS Central was supposedly defeated – at least militarily – after multiple operations against the group by US-led coalitions, Russia, Iran and local governments. The symbolic fall of IS Central could be ascribed to the death of al-Baghdadi when US forces raided his compounded in Syria’s Idlib Province in October 2019.
However, this supposed fall of the IS Caliphate in territorial terms does not mean the end of the group, or the end of any of the group’s affiliates – especially the dangerous Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP). Taking its name from an old Persian term meaning the region encompassing parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia, ISKP peaked in 2017 with attacks and fatalities throughout Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan. Officially declared as a ‘wilayat’ (province) of IS in January 2015, ISKP openly opposes the Taliban, former Afghan government, Pakistan government, US-led coalitions, and any other group or military that do not subscribe to IS ideological brand.
The devastating attack at the death anniversary commemoration of General Qasem Soleimani in Iran in January 2024 was attributed to ISKP. Over 100 people were killed in explosions. Likewise, the deadly Crocus City Hall attack in Russia in March 2024 was also committed by the ISKP, resulting in around 145 deaths. After the resurgence of the Taliban, ISKP activity in and out of Afghanistan has increased. This also comes at a time of fresh leadership in ISKP, presently led by Sanaullah Ghafari, alias Shahab al-Muhajir, since 2020. ISKP under al-Mujahir has revolutionised its tactics and strategies to wage powerful and symbolic attacks against its enemies, including the devastating Abbey Gate bombing at the Kabul airport during the final leg of US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 that killed around 170, including 13 US servicemen.
The rise of ISKP is not to be understated. In a threat assessment written in April 2024, the author warned that the current political and security landscape of the United States could allow for ISKP penetration through the US Southern Border with Mexico, which has increasingly become a porous-like border due to political, social and security dilemmas. It was predicted that fighters from Central Asian countries would be used for this attempt, as they would attempt to blend in with other illegal immigrants flowing into the US from the South. Subsequently, in June 2024, eight Tajik nationals with ties to ISKP were arrested in the New York, Los Angeles and Philadelphia after having crossed the Southern border – exactly as warned in the threat assessment.
Now, it is paramount to understand that ISKP holds the capability and will to launch attacks in the region, especially against India and China. The author makes this suggestion based on analysis of ISKP trends and statistics, as well as its propaganda narratives in recent times. The continuous condemning of India, India’s BJP leadership and Hindus in general are cause for concern. Citing issues that affect the Muslim population such as attacks against Muslims by Hindu chauvinist groups, the building of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the closing down of Islamic organisations in India, and the general anti-Muslim rhetoric in India, ISKP warns the nation that it will have its revenge. Likewise, the Uyghur Muslim issue in China is also discussed and leveraged by the ISKP.
Given the continuous attacks against ISKP by the former US-led coalition in Afghanistan, former Afghan government, the Taliban and other anti-ISKP groups in Afghanistan, ISKP’s strength and might reduced significantly in the final years of the previous decade. However, with the botched US withdrawal in 2021 and the subsequent rise of the Taliban, and fresh leadership of ISKP, the group is on an upward trend of operation and expansion.
One of the group’s primary objectives is winning the war of influence – to be seen as the ‘truth’ amongst jihadi groups and mujahideen who claim to fight Holy wars in the name of Islam (in reality, this is a mere perverted distortion of the peaceful tenets of Islam). In order to win the war of influence, ISKP seeks to win over potential recruits, radicals as well as the general Muslim population. To do this, the group will attempt to utilise, milk and exploit the most pressing issue of the Muslim world – Palestine.
The injustices and war in Palestine have become a critical issue of the global Muslim world. ISKP understands that any contribution to this issue will significantly support its rank and file, while also swaying influence in favour of the group. This is not to say that peaceful Muslims would support ISKP just because the latter supports the Palestinian cause, but rather that ISKP will attempt to stand out amongst other terror groups. To do this, ISKP will attempt to launch attacks against Zionist and Jewish targets, in the name of revenge for Israel’s actions in Palestine. Like the attack on Chabad House, a Jewish centre, during the 26/11 attack in India, Jewish targets in the region and beyond are likely to be targeted.
It is important that the security and intelligence community in the region consider the threat of ISKP seriously and urgently. The obscure nature of the group’s core and operations, as well as the use of encrypted messaging platforms for communication and propaganda, has made analysis and evaluation of the group particularly complex. A multi-pronged approach ought to be followed to monitor cross-border travel of potential terrorists, dismantle sleeper cells in urban locations as well as de-radicalise extremists who have subscribed to the IS-brand of Salafi Wahabbism.
It is imperative that governments take immediate action against the threat before any significant attack takes place in the region.
Rashane Jude Pintoe is a researcher on international and national security. He is a research analyst at the Global Peace Institute, UK. He was formerly attached to the Institute of National Security Studies under the Ministry of Defence, Sri Lanka. He specialises in global insurgencies, Islamist extremism and counterterrorism. Having multiple pieces of research publications to his name, Rashane also writes on topics relating to terrorism, peace and the status quo of the political attributes in both Sri Lankan and foreign aspects.'
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