Modi's third term was widely expected long before the voting started on April 19, and exit polls released by major media outlets indicated BJP's victory.
India’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has secured a majority of the seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament), winning the 2024 Indian general elections.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) released the official data on its website early Wednesday, suggesting that the NDA is all set to form the next government.
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| People watch the election results live on TV in Bengaluru, India on June 4, 2024. (Xinhua) |
Modi has won a historic third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Still, his victory was overshadowed by BJP’s low-than-expected seats in the Lok Sabha.
EXPECTED VICTORY
Modi’s third term was widely expected long before the voting started on April 19, and exit polls released by major media outlets indicated BJP’s victory.
The alliance led by the main opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party had previously refused to acknowledge exit poll data. Former INC president Rahul Gandhi called the exit polls “Modi media poll.”
A delegation of the opposition alliance leaders urged the poll panel on Sunday to ensure that all the guidelines are followed on the counting day on June 4, including declaring the postal ballot results before the outcome of the electronic voting machines is announced.
Instead of national security, voters this year were more concerned about issues like the economy, employment, development, and India’s international status.
Some phases of the election saw voter turnout dip noticeably compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, according to the ECI. Factors such as hot weather, lack of new issues, the BJP’s widely predicted win and intensified ethnic conflicts were believed to have contributed to the result.
Political analysts said the lack of momentum has dampened hopes of a huge majority for the BJP.
BELOW EXPECTATIONS
The BJP did win the election, but with a surprisingly slim majority — far below its target, and indications from almost all exit polls.
As a result, Modi and his party will have to be more dependent on allies to cross the simple majority mark to form India’s next government.
Previously considered disorganized and ineffective, the opposition alliance led by the INC achieved unprecedented unity and put significant pressure on the ruling party.
Observers believe that the BJP’s less-than-expected performance has multiple reasons, including overestimated economic achievements, intractable social issues, and the opposition’s solidarity.
The opposition alliance focused on significant difficulties faced by ordinary Indians such as employment, livelihood, inflation, welfare and income. Some of their proposals, such as “equitable distribution of wealth,” resonated widely with disadvantaged groups in India.
The opposition-held southern states could also deprive the BJP of the supermajority it seeks, although Modi has made multiple campaign trips to the wealthier southern states this year.
Experts doubted the effect of the moves as voters in southern India have been more resistant to BJP’s Hindu nationalist narrative.
UPCOMING CHALLENGES
Most of the social issues raised by the opposition during the campaign would not be easily resolved under the country’s current development model. However, losing the simple majority makes it much more difficult for Modi and his BJP to push any significant reform.
The financial market gave an immediate response: the Indian stocks suffered a dramatic plunge on Tuesday, and foreign investors sold the most on record.
The BJP said in its manifesto released before the election that it had brought the country from being among the “fragile five” to its place among the “top five” economies despite the global turmoil and the once-in-a-century pandemic.
However, some media outlets and experts believed that the actual economic performance was not as good as the government claimed, and the benefits of development have not truly reached the lower strata of society.
This led to persistently high unemployment rates in the country. A pre-poll survey by the Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies found that over half of the 10,019 respondents expressed worry about price increases and job scarcity, as reported by the Hindustan Times.
Indian farmers have protested in the past months, demanding a law to guarantee a minimum price for crops, farmers’ pensions, and debt waiver, among others.
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