Following the worst economic crisis in Sri Lankan history, the magic of the Rajapaksa clan is on the wane. Ranil Wickeremesinghe is now the go-to man
by Ashok K Mehta
It’s Day 54 of ‘Gota Go Home’ protests. The protestors representing all sections of society have thinned but the resolve to get President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to step down has strengthened. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a single National List seat Prime Minister rejected by the electorate, is now being opposed by protestors as ‘No Deal’ referring to payback by Gotabaya for Wickremesinghe protecting the family when he was the Prime Minister.
The words ‘incredible’, ‘impossible’ and ‘unthinkable’ pop up in relation to the impending political demise of the Rajapaksa clan and apparent rise of Wickremesinghe. In 2013, Mahinda Rajapaksa, the patriarch who was forced to resign last month, when asked by Al Jazeera about the Rajapaksa magic, said: “What can I do? People elect us! They can also throw us out.” That is certainly their fate in or before the next elections. Gotabaya has not done what he had promised: A 15-member all-party interim Government. Instead, it is a full Government dominated by his SLPP, defectors from SLPF and Tamil EPDP. Wickremesinghe has been appointed Finance Minister (no one wanted the job), Minister for Stabilisation and National Politics.
The protestors’ profile is interesting: Educated and savvy on social media, they are blocking entry to presidential secretariat, PM’s residence and are arrayed on the iconic Galle Face Green. Most Colombans come to walk on a straight track along the seashore created by Charles Ward in the 19th century to keep Sri Lankans fit. Protestors want an interim Government for economic stabilisation; repeal of 20A which restored extraordinary powers to President; and early elections with a new electoral system. The draft of 21A is to be presented in Parliament shortly.
This economic crisis is the worst in Sri Lankan history. The euphoria after the triumph in the ethnic war led to reckless spending focused on development, with China being the favoured source of funding and construction. A bankrupt Colombo is to start negotiations with IMF and World Bank for a debt relief package. For Sri Lanka, it is India’s 1991 moment. IMF conditionalities will lead to more pain and hardship for the people who are enduring power cuts and shortage in food, fuel and medicines. Two immediate IMF requirements will be rollback of tax cuts in 2019 and reduction in the defence budget, calls for which are being made since the war was won on May 18, 2009.
For former Colonel Gotabaya Rajapaksa personally, defence cuts will be most challenging. Already UN agencies have been demanding dismantling of several task forces led by Generals and equivalent, created by him. Sri Lankan Army’s 100,000-force will have to take a haircut. So will the 1.93 per cent defence budget which is 12.3 per cent of Government spending. IMF will want defence spending shaved by nearly 1 per cent, which Gotabaya will be unable to do. But his successor may do it at the risk of antagonising the military, which was placed on a pedestal by the Rajapaksas. Remember, Sri Lankans respect and revere their soldiers who terminated the 30-year-long war against LTTE.
Meanwhile, Wickremesinghe is preparing an interim six-month budget while working on debt restructuring and a macro-economic plan. China is unwilling to restructure its debt. Wickremesinghe is trying to forge an international consortium for assistance and has called for bridging funds. India has emerged the leader in reaching out with relief assistance “guided by democratic norms and interest of Sri Lankans”. This is a far cry from the IPKF era where everything Indian was suspect and abhorred. India, which has extended a $3.5bn assistance package since January is well on its way to retrieving lost goodwill and strategic dividends won by China. Similarly, Tamil Nadu has provided assistance to the Tamil North. Further, India and Japan — once the biggest donors to Sri Lanka — have decided to jointly help the island nation. Japan was rebuffed twice when two awarded projects — Eastern Colombo Terminal in a trilateral venture with India and Sri Lanka, and a light rail project in Colombo — were rescinded.
In ongoing debate among protestors and other Sri Lankans, the unprecedented uprising is not considered politically driven, despite goons instigated by the establishment leading the counterattack against protestors demanding Rajapaksas’ resignation. These attacks and reprisals are seen as the State creating fear and insecurity to retain power. Interestingly, Tamils have not joined the protests though on May 18, for the first time, Sinhalese took part in remembering Tamil victims of the Colombo war. This is the first positive step towards reconciliation. Wickremesinghe has appointed a committee for protection of protestors and given them a voice on national policy in Parliament.
Social media has played a pivotal role in the demolition of the Rajapaksas. It has been credited with national awakening to the failures of politicians. The Rajapaksas are known to have used a TV channel owned by their friends to propagate their narrative. But it was outed. India has also come under the scanner. It is being accused of supporting the corrupt Government. But India House in Colombo was quick to reiterate that it was being guided by democratic norms and the interests of the Sri Lankans. This is India’s moment to seize.
Wickremesinghe has taken the pressure off President Rajapaksa. But it can’t last long. The Rajapaksas have been found out.
(The writer, a retired Lt Gen, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)
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