What Lessons For India From Ukraine Crisis

 There is  grim possibility of China and Pakistan joining together  and starting armed confrontation with India at any time in future.

by N.S.Venkataraman 

When Ukraine President spoke to Indian Prime Minister Modi over telephone, it is reported that Ukraine President sought India’s political support for Ukraine in the present hour of grave crisis faced by it. It is further reported that Mr. Modi  responded to the appeal by stating that   war and hostility should end in Ukraine immediately and was further reported to have offered India’s services to mediate peace between Ukraine and Russia.  It appears that Mr. Modi was eloquently silent by not offering political support to Ukraine.

One wonders as to what would have been the thought process of Mr. Modi in his mind set , when he was speaking to Ukraine President over telephone. Obviously, Mr. Modi must have been wondering whether India too would have to face a similar situation as faced by Ukraine now, in the event of war with China / Pakistan.

Most nations have sympathised with Ukraine and  offered  sort of lip support but are  unwilling to intervene with military force with strength to save Ukraine from occupation. Of course, US and NATO countries have responded to the Ukraine crisis by extending sanctions against Russia ,  even though  it  is still not clear as to what extent they would go in imposing the sanctions, in view of the dependence of several NATO countries on Russia for their energy ( crude oil and natural gas) requirement.

India has two hostile neighbours namely China and Pakistan and India shares long border with these  two countries . China and Pakistan have not concealed their hostility towards India and are claiming Indian territory as their own, with Pakistan occupying substantial area of Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) and China occupying thousands of kilometres of Indian territory and still claiming more area like Arunachal Pradesh in north east India.  Both these hostile neighbours have used every opportunity to nag India and oppose India in several world forums.

There is  grim possibility of China and Pakistan joining together  and starting armed confrontation with India at any time in future.

If and when such confrontation would take place in a big way, what sort of support India would get from other countries ?

In all probability, Russia would stay neutral  to avoid  antagonising China , just as India stood neutral in the United Nations Security Council , when a resolution was sought to be passed condemning Russia.

In the case of other countries like USA, countries in Europe, Asia, Middle east and Africa,   almost all these countries would express their concern in  the event of military conflict between India on one hand and Pakistan and China on the other but would  not go beyond this and would  refrain from coming to India’s support in any significant way.   All these countries would be more interested in protecting their  trade relations with China and therefore,  would ensure that China would not be displeased.  Of course, UNO would pass a cosmetic resolution asking India,  China and Pakistan to refrain from military conflict and resolve the issues.

In the case of Ukraine, USA and Europe voiced their strong support for Ukraine, in view of the geopolitical issues in Europe. However, in the case of a military war between India and China/ Pakistan, India would not get even this level of support.

The possibility of this grim situation  would have been weighing in the mind of Mr. Modi, when he was speaking to the President of Ukraine over telephone.

In the case of Ukraine, Russia  supported some divisive and secessionist      forces in Ukraine and extended recognition to two regions in Ukraine as independent country.

In the case of India too, there are  reports of some groups getting support from China and Pakistan to create conflicts in India, using the conditions of democracy and freedom of speech in the country. Therefore, just as it happened in Ukraine, in the case of  India too, China and  Pakistan can create internal issues for government.

In such situation , there is no option for India other than strengthening it’s military base with modern and sophisticated equipment.  One can be sure that Modi government is taking necessary steps to strengthen the military base.   Still, this remains a question as to what extent, India could build military capability to confront China.

It is reported that India not supporting the UNSC resolution against Russia has displeased many countries , as the emerging world view is  that  Russia’s military actions in Ukraine should be condemned and   Russia should be made to leave Ukraine.

Though India claims that it has not supported Russia but stayed neutral  by abstaining from voting in UNSC , the perception around the world  is India has supported Russia for all practical purposes. This  action of Modi government could certainly turn the world opinion against India , in the event of war like situation with China / Pakistan.

The fact is Modi government has difficult choice to make in taking sides in the Ukraine crisis and has taken a calculated risk by  giving an impression of being neutral. 

The President of Ukraine has made it more difficult for Mr. Modi now ,by calling him  over telephone and seeking political support , in a condition where the overwhelming sympathy for Ukraine all over the world is very much evident.

When Prime Minister Modi finished telephone talk with the President of Ukraine,a thought must have crossed his mind atleast momentarily,  about the plight of Tibet at the hands of China and as to how the entire world let down Tibet at the time of it’s grave crisis, when Chinese troops massacred innocent Tibetans . Then, India too let down Tibet just as India has now let down Ukraine by remaining neutral in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.