This scenario is not easy to visualise as it has been in preparation since the end of World War II in 1945. This may be seen at that, any provocation was enough to take preventive, and proportionate measures of NATO forces.
by Victor Cherubim
The haunting sound of air raid sirens were ringing out on Kyiv this morning Thursday 24 February 2022 at 7 AM, with Russia at war with Ukraine or vice versa, confirming what so many observers had predicted and anticipated. It started at dawn around 5 AM Russian time,targeting airports, military airfields, factories and main supply routes, with smoke rising from Russian Cruise Missiles strikes to a military base outside Kyiv, perhaps, where amunitions were being supplied by NATO and the US.
Ukrainians say Antonov International cargo and troop transport airport, North West suburb of Kyiv according to reports was attacked, and multiple chopperswere seen in the sky. War Correspondents state, Russia is said to have destroyed a Ukrainian airbase.
Odessa, the home of the Ukrainian Navy may have also been targeted. Ground Troops,according to observers, simultaneously attacking Kharkov and Mariupol and other eastern Ukraine cities.There is scant, if any authentic information.
Ukrainian authoritiesmaintain that they shot down a Russian helicopter outside of Kyiv. There are also unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops have taken Chernobyl the antiquated nuclear site inside of Russia. What we know for sure is that Ukraine has declared “martial law” and called up their volunteer reserve, which many analysts fear.
Russia has recognised the two breakaway recluses of south east Ukraine as independent on Monday 21 February 2022. Many were given Russian passports years ago. They are the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as the Ukrainian government accused Moscow of unleashing a full scale war.
It is too early to say how much of this news is fake.
War to “De Nazify” Ukraine
This scenario is not easy to visualise as it has been in preparation since the end of World War II in 1945. This may be seen at that, any provocation was enough to take preventive, and proportionate measures of NATO forces.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministers of Russia and the United States, Lavrov and Blinken were meeting today at Geneva talks, aimed at defusing the situation.
Historians would state that between 1932 and 1933 more than 3 million people starved to death in Ukraine in large part due to “Soviet Collectivisation”. In 1938 Neville Chamberlain abandoned the then Czechoslovakia.
President Vladimir Putin is on a goal to win back and rebuild the Russia’ Empire. But, what happened nearly a century ago and what is happening today is in many ways different. Would you imagine, we are now living in a technocratic world where wars are won and lost due to tech reasons?
What then is different today?
The world of today is more technocrat than sheer muscle power. Alarming news headlines around the world is bad news for millions of investors, savers, but more so for ordinary people, who as we know are ordinarily struggling to make ends meet.
Oil prices have sky rocketed to 2014 levels when a barrel of Brent Crude reached over $105, with oil giants like Shell and BP and Gazprom of Russia, all see red as the crisis deepens.
The source in the price of oil is terrible news of the consumer as well as for business. It is stoking further inflation with energy bills keep going up and food prices creeping up as Ukraine and Russia are both big suppliers of gas and oil, as well as food to Europe.
Supermarkets in Europe and the UK are already seeking alternative sources of supply, which could jack up prices.
Sanctions will it work?
Sanctions has been a tool when diplomacy failed? Its effect although put into effect at the touch of a button, is a long term strategy. Will sanctions work?
British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson told the House of Commons today (24 Feb.2022) that Britain will slap a host of economic sanctions against Russia with full asset seizure of VBT Russia’s Bank which has assets totalling £154 billion, and stopping them from accessing Sterling and Clearing payments through the UK, stopping one half of Russia’s trade currently in US Dollars and Sterling immediately.
German Chancellor, Olaf Sholz announced that he has ordered the withdrawal of a key document needed for the certification of the Russian/German Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Germany today is different to the days of Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, market economics plays a very important part in today’s world. The rouble Moex Index fell 45 % to 1,690.13 and was later down 31 % in London.The above figures means little to ordinary citizens either in Moscow or London or for that matter anywhere.
The European Union President, Ursula von der Leyen was more than rhetoric; “we will weaken Russia’s economy based on its capacity to modernise, freezing Russian asset base in the EU and stop the access of Russian banks to European financial markets.”
Strangely, all these preconceived ideas are well known to Russia, and it has taken relevant measures to accommodate them, and even find ways to alleviate. What can we expect, if sanctions don’t work?
What is a worry to Russia?
What Russia wants to inflict is a quick, sharp shock to NATO and its expansion on the borders of Russia.
What Russia may be worried that its citizens, including the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk who were given Russian passports on application in 2008 and 2014 after the Crimea invasion, don’t get too weary of a long drawn out war – a war without end –
andfeel disillusioned or willing and wanting an early demise?
The practicalities of the German certification and British sanctions will hardly be felt immediately. It will take time to impact. German certification process, like most processes, do not automatically imply that Russia will now necessarily send even lower volumes of gas to Germany and overall to Europe. This decision is not grounded in physical infrastructure considerations, but on political basis.
Do my readers think that the Russiansare fools to cut off gas lifeline in Germany?
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