Up to now COP 26 can only boast some apparent success – the global Methane Pledge, signed by more than 90 countries aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
by Victor Cherubim
A COP Report published on 9 November 2021 at the Climate Talks predicted the world is on course for 2.4 C warmer by 2100 even with all this year’s COP Pledges factored in.
UK Minister and COP President Alok Sharma said “we are making up progress but negotiating teams have a mountain to climb over the next few days,” that is ahead of the summit’s scheduled finish date, Friday 19 November 2021. He further said, “The time has come to find consensus on areas of political divergence.”
Up to now COP 26 can only boast some apparent success – the global Methane Pledge, signed by more than 90 countries aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
Besides, more than 100 countries - home to around 85% of the world’s forests have committed “to end Deforestation and start Reforestation by 2030”. These activists say are medium term pledges that are quite possibly achievable. They go on to say that the problem is this success on methane and deforestation will not be enough.
According to Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change to keep global warming to what was agreed in Paris Conference four years agoto 1.5 degrees C requires a reduction in total Greenhouse Gas emissions of 8% every year until 2030. This is far less than the 6.4% reduction in emissions that followed the global lockdown due to COVID-19 between 2019 and 2020.
What is seen or as it stands, is that carbon dioxide emissions cannot fall by the necessary amount by 2030, without a massive and necessary reduction in the amount of energy consumption by 2030.
What is equally evident is that energy consumption could not happen without an incentive to the poorer nations. In simple language, money has to be pumped in to the largest and the poorest countries to accelerate the decarbonisation of electricity generation through fossil fuel.
Leg up in lobbying at COP 26?
Developing countries attending COP 26 Glasgow have also been pushing hard for developed countries to be forced to revise their commitments known in the Climate jargon as “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDC). As soon as possible, perhaps, as early as next year 2022, whilst Developed Countries are dragging their feet.
At the other end of this spectrum are countries like China, India, Russia, U.S., Australia, and Saudi Arabia, who have their own individual reasons to be unwilling to go along with the demands of the Developing countries for immediate aid to counter climate change. There seems to be strong resistance from Developed countries on financial support “for loss and damage”.
Russia and China have recognised that the many in the Developed World have ditched coal for clean energy like UK years ago and are way ahead in Climate Changeover. China has recognised the problem and that perhaps, may have been one reason for not attending COP 26 at Glasgow. Inflation has picked up in China as oil prices surge. Inflation has jumped to 1.5% in October 2021 from 0.7% in September 2021 – a 13 month high. With this in mind China has within a short period started rationing its electricity supply to industrial firms without too much publicity.China is the dark horse which may upset all western calculations and may come up trumps, because it has within its power to ration fuel.
India has approached this problem of controlling greenhouse emissions in a different way. India will meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030. India says it will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes from now onwards till 2030. India will get its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 Gigawatt (GW) by 2030. At the same time it is couched in getting a fair share of the US$100 billion finance aid.
Saudi Arabia delegation has naturally blocked efforts to write in greater Climate ambition. Who knows whether it has funded the 503 fossil fuel lobbyists at Glasgow to have a corporate influence at COP 26? The Fossil Fuel Lobby is larger than the delegation of any country at COP 26.
Past US President Barak Obama in his speech to the Delegates at COP 26 summed up by stating: “the world is collectively and individually falling short in fighting Climate Change.”
Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of Britain as the host is playing it cool, crossing his fingers and hoping for the best. Britain among the Developed World has every reason to play its cards close to its chest now, having fooled the world by “outsourcing” its energy dependency on fossil fuel industries to the “developing world” and is relying heavily on leading the world in the New Industrial Age.
Post a Comment