What COP26 Will Not Discuss – The Outer Space Angle

 One of the popular misconceptions in  the uninitiated mind could be that COP/26 is addressing the spectrum of environmental disasters that have befallen the world.  This is far from the truth.

by Dr. Ruwantissa Abeyratne in Montreal 

This article contains extracts from a  book chapter written by the author and published recently in Outer Space, Issues for Humankind: Issues of Space Law and Policy: Eleven Publishers:2021 

If one applies a sports analogy to the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP/26), this article was written at “half time” with one of the two weeks of the Conference to go.  By this time “commitments” – to use the term loosely – had been arrived at on such matters as eliminating deforestation and methane emissions but sclerotic steps were still being attempted to arrive at the most important subjects such as coal mining, fossil fuels and gas. In the first week of the Conference there was much bravado and gusto in heralding steps for the distant future but not much has been said so far about immediate steps to be taken, although  climate change is already happening and showing signs ominous progress towards disaster.

One of the popular misconceptions in  the uninitiated mind could be that COP/26 is addressing the spectrum of environmental disasters that have befallen the world.  This is far from the truth.  There are 9 serious threats to our planet in the context of mother nature  and climate change is but one of them.  They are: climate change; ocean acidification; chemical pollution; nitrogen and phosphorus loading; freshwater withdrawals; land conversion; bio diversity loss; air pollution; and Ozone layer depletion.  This article discusses Ozone layer depleting caused by outer space activities.

The commercial space exploration industry is booming. Estimates of revenue generated by this industry in 2019 were considered to be quite substantial, where 95% of the total  income of $366 billion earned was found to be from the goods or services produced in space for use on earth: i.e. for the benefit of earth related activities such as telecommunications and internet infrastructure, earth observation capabilities, national security satellites to name but a few . Furthermore, in May 2020 the first humans in space sent by a commercial space entity SpaceX marked a historic event. In addition to being a significant technological feat, this marks not only a tremendous technological achievement, but also a seminal indication that a burgeoning “space-for-space” industry that is calculated to providing goods and services to  space bound tourists was looming.  However, commercial space travel in all its visionary promise brings to bear a complexity and attendant issue endemic to transportation - pollution.  

It is now known that both solid rocket motors (SRMs) and liquid rocket engines (LREs) adversely affect the protective cover of the global ozone layer in various ways. Commercial space activities involving rocket launches are responsible for combustion emissions which alter the composition of the atmosphere, both by what are known as transient changes that occur in proximity to the launch site which impact  air quality in the lower troposphere and more long-term changes in the composition of the Stratosphere. The steadily increasing launch of commercial satellites has given rise to the growing awareness among regulators and the scientific community of the deleterious effects of such activity on the stratospheric ozone layer.

The view that rocket emissions should be regulated was seen as early as 1994  and has been steadily advanced since. One view is that “As the space industry heads toward a future with two or three launches every day, the anticipated surge in emissions directly into the Stratosphere (assuming current propellant types) would push the climate impacts of rocket emissions to be comparable in magnitude to other sources of climate change that receive intense study by international groups of scientists, engineers, and scholars”.

A joint study conducted in 2009 by the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University voiced concern on  the absence of stringent regulation applicable to the burgeoning global market for rocket launches and the calculable damage to  Earth's stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come as the commercial space industry grows exponentially .  A statement issued by the University of Colorado at Boulder unequivocally articulates the potential threat to the Ozone layer: “As the rocket launch market grows, so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions…if left unregulated, rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs."  The same study went on to say that while emissions from global rocket launches in the first decade of the 21st Century that depleted the ozone layer were small – less  than a few hundredths of 1 percent annually – the rapid growth of the commercial space industry in the coming decades would overtake  other ozone-depleting chemicals which were declining in the Earth's Stratosphere .  This view comports with academic opinion  reflected in other published scientific findings .

The middle and upper Stratosphere, which contains ozone, is solely impacted adversely by compounds that are produced by human activity and emissions from rocket combustion fuels are the only source that destroys ozone in these areas.  As the Stratosphere and troposphere are vastly distanced from each other, these emissions resulting from combustion tend to settle in the Stratosphere.  A fortiori, an accumulation of these emissions from  rocket launches aggravates effects on the ozone layer. Stratospheric ozone levels are controlled by catalytic chemical reactions driven by only trace amounts of reactive gases and particles.9 Stratospheric concentrations of these reactive compounds are typically about one-thousandth that of ozone. Deposition of relatively small absolute amounts of these reactive compounds can significantly modify ozone levels.  However differently rocket engines are designed, every one of them discharges particles that are detrimental to the cover provided by the ozone layer.

One expert view is that it is not so much the gaseous emissions from the rocket that damages the ozone layer but other particles: “Small pieces of soot and a chemical called alumina are created in the wakes of rocket launches. They then get injected into the Stratosphere, the layer of Earth’s atmosphere that begins six miles up and ends around 32 miles high. Research shows that this material may build up in the Stratosphere over time and slowly lead to the depletion of a layer of oxygen known as the ozone layer”.  This view is supported, with an added comment by other commentators: “Rocket exhaust has two main effects on the atmosphere. First, chemical reactions deplete the ozone layer. This has, historically, been the main concern about rocket emissions because solid rocket motors inject chlorine directly into the ozone layer and chlorine has been subject to international regulation since 1987. More recently, a second concern has come to light. Particles injected into the Stratosphere absorb and reflect solar energy, changing the flow of radiation in the atmosphere, heating the Stratosphere and cooling the surface, respectively. This radiative forcing has the effect of changing the Earth’s albedo and so the amount of solar energy injected into the atmosphere. These thermal changes also deplete the ozone layer”.

The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer of 1985  is the main multilateral treaty that applies to the issue of the depletion of the Ozone layer. The treaty entered into force on 22 September 1988.The essence of the treaty lies in Principle 21 of the Rio Declaration – that  although States have been accorded the inherent right by the  Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental policies, yet responsibility devolves upon them to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdictions.  The Preambular clauses of the treaty allude inter alia to precautionary measures that could be taken both at national and international level to protect the ozone layer through international co-operation and action and should be based on relevant scientific and technical considerations,

Pursuant to this mandate, States Parties to the Vienna Convention adopted the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 1987  under the basic premise that States Parties had an  obligation under the Vienna Convention to take appropriate measures to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer, and that world-wide emissions of certain substances can significantly deplete and otherwise modify the ozone layer in a manner that is likely to result in adverse effects on human health and the environment.  The Protocol, along with the Vienna Convention, achieved universal participation on 16 September 2009 making these two instruments  the first treaties of any kind in the history of the United Nations system to achieve that aspiration .

There are two factors for consideration in a discussion of this issue: health implications brought about by the penetration of radiative effects of the Sun; and remedial measures through the polluter pays principle. With regard to adverse effects of Stratospheric ozone depletion caused by rocket propulsion, there has not been much awareness demonstrated by the international community.  Some implied reference exists in United Nations General Assembly Resolution 45/94 -   adopted at its 68th plenary meeting on 14 December 1990 - which quotes the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, that  everyone has the right to an adequate standard of living for his or her own health and wellbeing and that of his or her family and to the continuous improvement of living conditions and that increasing environmental degradation could endanger the very basis of life. The Resolution goes on to say that the Rio Conference of 1992 and its Declaration elaborate strategies and measures to halt and reverse the effects of environmental degradation in the context of strengthened national and international efforts to promote sustainable and environmentally sound development in all countries.  It also focuses on the importance for all countries to take effective actions for the protection and enhancement of the environment in accordance with their respective capacities and responsibilities and considering the specific needs of developing countries and that, as the major sources of pollution, the developed countries have the main responsibility for taking appropriate measures urgently.  In pursuit of these objectives the Resolution inter alia calls upon Member States and intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations dealing with environmental questions to enhance their efforts towards ensuring a better and healthier environment .

It could be a matter of time before pollution by rocket propulsion in the Stratosphere becomes a matter for international legislation through a treaty such as the Montreal Protocol. This type of pollution affects nations at the global level and therefore any treaty  addressing the issue, irrespective of the number of ratifications it receives, could develop into customary international law .  Such a treaty must be “of a fundamental norm creating character such as could be regarded as forming the basis of a general rule of law” .There is both precedent and an analogy.  The precedent is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which established a 200-mile exclusive economic zone – a principle which was adopted by the international community through opinio juris much before the treaty was concluded and adopted by the community of nations. There is strong argument among legal scholars that, in similar manner, Principle 21 of the Rio Declaration which effectively precludes States from indulging in activity resulting in  extra territorial adverse effects on the rest of the world, is already a peremptory norm or jus cogens at customary international law .  If such a new peremptory norm of general international law were to emerge, any existing treaty or local law which exists would be automatically obviated.

It can be said with some justification that international law is the thread which runs through the fabric of international politics and provides the latter with its abiding moral and ethical flavor. Without principles and practices of international law, foreign policy would be rendered destitute of its sense of cooperation and become dependent on  national self-interest. As President Woodrow Wilson once claimed: " It is a very perilous thing to determine the foreign policy of a nation in the terms of material interests ... we dare not turn from the principle that morality and not expediency is the thing that must guide us, and that we will never condone equity because it is convenient to do so"

This statement, made in 1950, has great relevance today, when continued progress is being made in technological and economic development and policy decisions of States have far reaching consequences on a trans-boundary basis. Nation States are becoming more interdependent, making decisions made by a particular State in its own interest have a significant negative impact on the interests of other States. Therefore, ethics in foreign policy has largely become a construct which combines cultural, psychological and ideological value structures. Within this somewhat complex web of interests, decisions have to be made, which, as recent events in history have shown, require a certain spontaneity from the international community.

States come together as one in times of crisis and remain with each other at other times mainly because international relations have been a rule-based system. Therefore, deviating from established rules of international law would act to the detriment of international unity and global cooperation among States. The first step toward ensuring a cohesive international consensus system is to continue building a rules- based, cooperative democratic global system which does not succumb to individual acts of a capricious nature. Such a global system would not only ensure peace among nations but would also confront injustice, poverty, disease, and environmental hazards.