The ongoing Corona crisis in India has effectively repudiated the “demographic dividend” theory, which now appears to be an utopian thought.
by N.S.Venkataraman
The recent decision of the Government of China to allow families to have three children has once again focused the global attention about the population policy of the governments. Alarmed by it’s over population scenario, Chinese government ordered several years back that no family should have more than one child. With the dictatorial regime of China and known for it’s readiness to impose draconian measures to implement decisions, people of China simply obeyed the government’s directive to adhere to the one child family norm and the population growth steadily decreased. Now, the situation in China has undergone one full circle and the government finds that with the longevity of life due to medical advancement, the proportion of the aged population in China has increased, with the number of youth (working hands) reducing in the overall population, that could create a crisis in future.
The question is whether the population of a country should be compulsorily restricted and controlled ?
In sharp contrast to the scenario in China, India is a free and democratic country , where the decision of the government on any matter would be shaped by public opinion and preference of citizens.. India too has been discussing the need for checking the population growth for several decades now and many soft measures to check the rise in population have been introduced, which has not resulted in the desirable level of de growing the population.
There are also vague and confusing discussions in India about what is called a “demographic dividend” , which means that a higher level of population could mean greater number of working hands and consequently larger output of goods and services.
However, the ongoing Corona crisis in India has effectively repudiated the “demographic dividend” theory, which now appears to be an utopian thought.
During this Corona crisis, one reason that the second wave of Corona spread rapidly and uncontrollably in India has been due to the density of population. With such a high level of population density, the social distancing norm has gone for a toss and many people think that the lack of observance of social distancing norm is the biggest issue in tackling the Corona crisis in India today.
In such a scenario, discerning observers are of the firm view that any idea questioning the need for population control is absurd and counter productive.
While under population could create some manageable problems, over population inevitably causes economic and social stress and serious public health issues. This is the biggest problem faced by India today due to it’s high population density.. With such a crowd of people all over India which is constantly growing , no measures taken by the government are adequate enough to meet the needs of the people and the society. This has become very evident during the Corona crisis.
Some people tend to compare the size of the USA and it’s population with that of India . Such people seem to conclude that even with the present size of India ( which is less than that of USA), if India were to have only the population level of the USA, then India could be as prosperous a country as the USA, particularly considering several natural advantages that India has.
In any case, the ongoing Corona crisis in India is a clear pointer to emphasise the fact that overpopulation with high density is the primary problem in tackling the Corona crisis today. Now, the debate on over population versus under population has been firmly decided in favour of controlling the over population, even if it would lead to under population.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the last seven years of his governance, has taken some extraordinary and innovative measures to implement economic and social reforms in the country. Some positive results have already been seen and several other measures are in the work in progress stage.
What causes concern is that while Mr. Modi has taken several proactive measures, he has not paid attention to the adequate level to check the population growth in India. In the absence of Mr. Modi speaking about the need to control the population, the population control strategy is not a subject of national discussion today in India.
I hope that in the next three years of his present term of office, Mr. Modi would stress on population control and effectively explain to the people that the Corona crisis proved difficult to overcome only due to over -density of the population of the country. He must convince the people that the larger family size is not only an economic issue but also a health issue of serious proportion.
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