The World has to ineluctably come together to build a global infrastructure and a global fund that would be based on unfailing global communication that hyperconnectivity would require.
by Dr. Ruwantissa Abeyratne in Montreal
“The crisis has also brought home a central tenet of our megatrends approach: that disruption does not come from technologies and business models alone. It can equally be unleashed by national elections, climate disruption or, in this case, a pandemic”. ~ Ernst & Young, Megatrends 2020 Report
Most everything related to our existential lives that connected the world, be it global transportation, health, demography, urban population trends and even information technology, took a drastic and unexpected turn with the pandemic where the world turned inward and introspective, and revolutionized how we connected through the internet. At present, the world lays emphasis on e-business that has prompted e-Business Institute to say: “ The world was changing at a remarkable pace before coronavirus accelerated the need for change. These changes – to business and the way we live our lives – were being driven by five Megatrends that will continue to heavily influence the post-COVID world. Three of these Megatrends – demographic shifts, the environmental crisis and hyperconnectivity – can be considered immutable ‘irreversible’ shifts. The other two – the health revolution and diversity (or the new normal)– are societal trends”. This analysis has not only left out two megatrends that were largely recognized at the start of this year – namely the economic shift from the West to the East and rapid urbanization – but has also added on two social megatrends – health revolution and diversity.
Of these, only the health revolution appears arcane as the others have been literally beaten to death by numerous writings over the past two years, including two books, one written by the author and another groundbreaking book published by Aviation Strategies International Institute – a division of Aviation Strategies International which is a global consultancy headquartered in Montreal.
On the Health Revolution e-Business Institute says: “The global wellness industry is now worth in excess of $4.5 trillion, bolstered by the $828 billion physical activity market, according to research by the Global Wellness Institute. Health and wellness apps and gurus, vitamin supplements, yoga, nutrition, dieting. People living 50 years ago or so would have thought it extraordinary that these phenomena are so heavily influencing the way that we live our lives. And the way that we spend our money. But there really has been a biological mind shift. Global organic food sales have broken the $100 billion barrier. People are focusing on their physical and mental wellbeing. And technology-enabled consumers are taking control of their health. Health & Wellness interest is fueling trillions of dollars in spending – Image source: eBusiness Institute And think, too, not just of the impact COVID-19 has had on the sales of cleaning and sanitation products during the pandemic but how new long-term cleanliness habits will have formed during this period... People are still likely to be anxious about hygiene when trying these products, meaning that they will be likely to avoid in-store testers and samples. Augmented reality and livestreaming have enabled people to test products in a virtual and highly personalized manner during lockdown, and it’s likely that this trend will strengthen in the new world”.
According to Ernst & Young, there are four types of forces active in a pandemic world: Primary Forces which have existed since pre COVID-19 times and are active today - technology, globalization, demographics and environment - which remain the root causes of disruption; Megatrends which interact between the waves of primary forces to create new megatrends; Future Working Worlds riven by the socio economic effects of the pandemic which are the global order, firms and markets and households and individuals; and Week Signals which are waves of primary forces whose biggest impact is further in the future. Their likelihood and the scale and nature of their impact are more uncertain.
All the reasoning and factors adduced in the above discussion by the two eminent institutions are valid. However, these have to be taken from a systemic perspective which is a significant deviation from most current thinking - that megatrends exist as mutually exclusive transformative forces. In this context, the most critical and relevant factor is the link drawn by Ernst & Young between Primary Forces and Megatrends where Megatrends are envisioned as interacting with Primary Forces to create new Megatrends. This is staring at us in the face, calling for a new approach that can be subsumed in one sustained practice of global cooperation that has overtones similar to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.
The World has to ineluctably come together to build a global infrastructure and a global fund that would be based on unfailing global communication that hyperconnectivity would require. The basis for this infrastructure would transcend sovereignty the same way a multilateral treaty would but go beyond to be considered an instrument and practice of customary international law which no country can recuse itself from. The first step would be to make existing Megatrends systemic. This would not be difficult as they are already integrally linked. The needed exercise would be to determine how they are linked. The second step would be to place them within an overarching umbrella of global public health. States should standardize their internal practices the same way rules of the air are standardized, requiring mandatory compliance. A close look at harmonizing the guidance offered by various bodies addressing air transport – which is the primary conduit of infection – is also needed within the broad spectrum of any proposed infrastructure and fund.
The fundamental truth behind the aforementioned approach is contained in a statement by The One Campaign …:” Viruses don’t pay attention to borders or geographies, so neither can we. People need to keep standing together, supporting each other, and acting on the simple premise that this pandemic is bigger than all of us and we’ll defeat it if we stand and act as one. We stand with the most vulnerable, whether they live across the street or across the ocean.
We’re going to stand with our communities, in every neighborhood, town, city, and country where we live. That includes standing with Africa and the people and countries that are most vulnerable to the threats posed by the pandemic. This is about principle, and solidarity, and what’s right.
But it’s also about what’s smart: we can’t defeat a global pandemic anywhere unless we win everywhere. We’re going to organize, mobilize, activate, and advocate around three key lines of effort”.
The most challenging aspect of this discussion would lie in what new Megatrends might appear with the clash of Primary Forces. One Megatrend might be the shift from reliance on global supply chains to reliance on regional or local supply chains; another could be a shift from national sovereignty to sovereign responsibility in the context of global public health; another might be to veer from existing global and international institutions which have been mired by nationalistic and populist attitudes from member States to a truly global institution which implements collective sovereign responsibility in facing current and new megatrends; another Megatrend could be a shift from the traditional assessment of a country’s GDP to include quality of life, education and the value offered by fine arts as intrinsic elements of life that boost civic consciousness; yet another would be that urbanization could be strengthened and encouraged as centers for excellence in health services, thus converting existing infrastructure from being office complexes to residential units and relegating business to the advantages offered by information technology; another possible emergence would be the transformation of air transport from being an affordable utility for business practice to being a luxury as businesses increasingly use information technology to transact business.
One would hasten to add that these are all plausible scenarios that may or may not mature as circumstances evolve. For the most part, the most glaring Megatrend still stands as the collective intelligence of the world community in finally getting rid of the virus spread and preparing for future disasters of this kind.
Dr. Abeyratne is the author of Megatrends and Air Transport: Legal, Ethical and Economic Issues, published by Springer in 2018. He is also a co-author of Global Megatrends and Aviation: The Path to Future-wise Organizations published by Aviation Strategies International Institute in 2019.
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