Taking the Megatrends in the order mentioned above, the drivers of the global economic shift from West to East are geo politics; global income inequality; volatility and weakness of the global economy; the changing industry supply chain; shift to a knowledge-based economy; privatization; data transparency; and the changing nature of work and the future of work.
by Dr. Ruwantissa Abeyratne in Montreal
No one would argue that the Pandemic has altered much of our day to day life both personally and professionally. Much of the world’s population, which had revelled in lively social intercourse, was forced to retreat into its burrows under a global lock down. Until early 2020, the world had a clear perception of Megatrends – large and transformative forces that were affecting our existential lives: the economic shift from the West to the East; rapid urbanization; demographic shift; technological change; hyperconnectivity and climate change. In other words, a megatrend is a global direction towards which a large transformative force drives the entire world. It is not sectarian, affecting merely a part of the world; region; or country. Megatrends affect our existential life and connect everything: data; processes; humans; and geo-political instability. Thus, Megatrends represent an important shift in the progress of a society.
Megatrends are driven by what are called “Drivers” such as: globalization; competition; digitalization; decreasing lifestyle satisfaction; terrorism; entrepreneurial mindset; geo political challenges; emergence of alternative lifestyles; increasing energy demands; wearables (smartphones et.al); drones; augmented and virtual reality; blockchain and cryptocurrencies; 3D printing; biotechnology; robotics; cyber deceit; and sustainability (which is the key driver of innovation). These Drivers are often misquoted and wrongly regarded as Megatrends, which they are not.
Taking the Megatrends in the order mentioned above, the drivers of the global economic shift from West to East are geo politics; global income inequality; volatility and weakness of the global economy; the changing industry supply chain; shift to a knowledge-based economy; privatization; data transparency; and the changing nature of work and the future of work. In terms of Rapid Urbanization, the drivers are global ageing; growth of the middle class in Asia; consumption; population evolution; growth of mega cities; shifting ethnic identities and innovations in medical technology. Demography is influenced by changing patterns in employment; focus on technology; social values; geo-political instability; strength of governance; and increasing influence of alternative regional and global institutions.
Along comes a new driver, the Covid-19 Pandemic – the biggest and the most unexpected of drivers – and we are now compelled to evaluate the Megatrends in a new light. Taking the economic shift from the West to the East, preliminary indications are that the East has weathered the Pandemic crisis better economically than the West and therefore the shift that existed before the invasion of the Pandemic will continue irreversibly. In the context of urbanization E-Business Institute forecasts that “It’s quite possible that urbanisation will be slowed by restrictions on travel and movement. Rural areas have also seen relatively few COVID-19 infections and deaths, and it may be that people might be less willing than they were to move to urban areas because of their concerns about new coronavirus spikes”. These concerns would be intensified if a vaccine does not work for a sustained period of time and the world would have to go through wave upon wave of deadly contagious diseases.
The forecast goes on to say that “[T]he impact on jobs and economies may also stunt the growth of the middle class and limit the amount of money people have to spend on non-essential goods. Sadly, the UN reports that global poverty could potentially grow for the first time since 1990– a significant step backwards in the noble ambition to reduce hunger and inequality across the world”.
Of the Megatrends - whether driven by the Pandemic or not - climate change and demographics are irreversible, as well as the economic shift. The two critical areas on which the Pandemic may have some effect are technological advancement and hyper-connectivity. Both these Megatrends, like other Megatrends that are inter-connected to each other, are intrinsically linked. To determine the effect of the Pandemic on any of the Megatrends one must consider the Pandemic as a driver of the Megatrends and the centrifugal point through which any scenario can be built.
There are four scenarios to envision as plausible: that the Covid-19 virus might stay on continually, whether in Pandemic form or not; that the Pandemic and the virus will go away like the SARS virus did; and that, depending on these two scenarios our lifestyles will change; or we would go back to living the way we were. There are two certainties that the Pandemic would bring to bear in any of these scenarios. These are a health revolution and a communication revolution of sharing information, both of which the world had not seen before in the intensity that they would be present in the future. The generation that would impact the next 5 to 10 years most would comprise the Millennials. Their life support is derived through connectivity. The Pew Research Centre opines that in 2036 Millennials they could amount to 81.1 million In Asia, Millennials (Y generation of 25-35-year olds) comprise 58% of the population and occupy 25% of its workforce. 27% of China’s population are Millennials whereas they amount to 29% of the population of India. Eastspring Investments forecast that in the US, by 2020, one in every three adults will also be a millennial. Whichever way we go in the scenarios mentioned above, Millennials would take center stage in the health revolution and the communication revolution.
As for the health revolution, Millennials would be more receptive to adopting healthier habits of consuming food and following lifestyles that are attuned to prevention such as wearing masks in public laces such as supermarkets, transport systems and events. The Pandemic would also nudge Millennials to rely on digital connectivity more in terms of the sharing of data and the creation of a management society primarily based on information. In other words, the Millennial generation would be able to cope with the chaos caused by the Pandemic through adaptive innovation much more effectively than the Boomers could. Additionally, the Pandemic would drive the world in the way of Millennials more than before as Millennials also influence global investment through their link to artificial intelligence. In what some call “the new normal” they could make supply and demand shift to accord with their tastes, beliefs and economic proclivities.
It may be opportune at the present time to conduct a detailed study of how the Pandemic would affect Megatrends. Such a study could address the interplay between Megatrends with one another; the effect that the exponential increase in urbanization could have on congestion and environmental change as well as with the increasing trend towards connecting people across the world and whether, as claimed, the projected increase will recede back to rural areas due to the Pandemic; the needs of the Y (Millennial) and Z generations (the latter being those born between the mid 1990s tand2010) the economic power shift to the East; and the overall effect of information technology on all other Megatrends.
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