The economy has been particularly vulnerable not due to the high dependence on Intensive Care Beds, but due to the high dependence on consumer spending.
by Victor Cherubim
Do not get me wrong, Britain was sizzling hot last week, with temperatures well ahead of Sri Lanka. Some said it was sunshine and roses, many thronged the coastal beaches. We were told that Britain was much the worse than other European countries, not for the spike in humidity, or the Coronavirus, but for the recession. Of course, we did not learn anything new on that front.
The economy has been particularly vulnerable not due to the high dependence on Intensive Care Beds, but due to the high dependence on consumer spending. With jobs at risk, the high streets of Britain are deserted, people not wanting to spend and banks not wanting to lend. Amazon vehicles and Deliveroo cycles were seen catering for more people homebound.
While Boris Johnson is desperate for office workers to return to the city centre work places, as revenues of public transport companies, underground, bus and train have plummeted with fewer people commuting, it has also impact service industries such as cafes, bars, restaurants and sandwich shops. In desperation from today (15 August) more outlets like parks, and museums and other closed public places are open.
Panic stations
Many firms in UK are struggling financially, with Department Store Debenhams, perhaps going into liquidation and John Lewis cutting staff. Investment Management firm, Schroder’s in the City has told staff, they no longer need to come into their London office but all 1000’s of staff can permanently work from home.
At the same time, there was panic in Britain closing the border with France due to the new 14-day quarantine restriction imposed and tourists rushed to return to UK by 0400 hrs 15 August 2020. Many who were forced to return by the Eurostar train from Paris which arrived at Euston station, London before the deadline, stated it was a harrowing experience. One family who travelled back complained they received an SMS notice at Paris, stating: “you’re 2990 in the queue”.
After a week of relentlessly grim forecasts about many things including about the economic calamity, with every job lost meaning a life thrown into chaos and how to survive to pay the bills, we now are told by the Bank of England Chief Economist, Andy Haldane that Britain will “bounce back,” with recovery in the second half of 2020, a healthy dose of optimism can save jobs.
How is Britain then bouncing back?
But for all the anxiety there is a note of cautious optimism, with foundations for recovery “hiding in plain sight”.
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There is a sudden boom in local tourism with “staycation” bookings rocketing. People are getting adjusted to staying in UK at a holiday destination.
Boris Johnson has stated he is prepared to shut pubs and other public places to keep classrooms open. He is of the view that children suffer more by staying home, of missing school, which is worse than the virus risk, if all the rules are adhered.
Boris Johnson has further pledged to secure a vaccine to wipe out the disease. He has promised to do everything in his power to have a vaccine in place soon.
The Office of National Statistics now maintains that over the last month economic activity in UK has been steadily rising. GDP has fallen to 23% working solely from home, from a peak of 38% in mid-June 2020, a sign of recovery.
Everything now depends on Britain to contain a relapse, perhaps, a replication of a weaker or stronger strain of the virus in the weeks and months ahead.
The fine imposed for not wearing a face mask protection during travel and shopping has gone up from £1000 to up to £3000, on prosecution. People are taking it seriously.
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