President Trump's administration has increased the freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea region as a part of their dynamic force employment strategy.
by Anwar A. Khan
Lou Chan, deputy chief of the Chinese academy of military sciences, last month spoke at a military conference proposing an attack on two US aircraft carriers as a solution to the South China Sea crisis. The move would be a high casualty one claiming as many as 10,000 American sailors’ lives. Explaining his reasoning Lou said China’s anti-ship missiles are sufficient to destroy U.S. carriers and their escorts.
What the United States fears the most is taking casualties. China says, “We’ll see how frightened America is.” And Loun is not the only one with these tactics in mind, as his latest call to arms echoes a growing sentiment in China that the US is too weak to fight. The crisis has been heating up again this week as Manila plans to seize control of oil and gas in the region despite protests from Beijing. Gas fields in the area have long been claimed by the Chinese but the Philippines have also staked their claim in the resources defying them.
In fact, the South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims among several sovereign states within the region, namely Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. An estimated US$3.37 trillion worth of global trade passes through the South China Sea annually which accounts for a third of the global maritime trade. 80 percent of China's energy imports and 39.5 percent of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea.
Manila has begun beefing up its defensive capabilities in recent months as a result of Chinese President Xi Jinping's insistence on sending various vessels into Filipino waters. National security adviser under President Rodrigo Duterte – Hermogenes Esperon said, “Whatever we spend on defence should strengthen our position on developing our maritime domain especially the West Philippine Sea into what we call the blue economy.” China also sees economic potential in the region and has therefore made increasingly brazen moves to establish dominance of the waters.
The disputes include the islands, reefs, banks, and other features of the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and various boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin. There are further disputes, including the waters near the Indonesian Natuna Islands, which many do not regard as part of the South China Sea. Claimant states are interested in retaining or acquiring the rights to fishing stocks, the exploration and potential exploitation of crude oil and natural gas in the seabed of various parts of the South China Sea, and the strategic control of important shipping lanes.
Since 2013, the People's Republic of China has resorted to island building in the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands region. These actions have been met with a wide international condemnation, and since 2015 the United States and other states, such as, France and the United Kingdom have conducted freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) in the region. In July 2016, an arbitration tribunal constituted under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruled against the PRC's maritime claims in Philippines v. China. The tribunal did not rule on the ownership of the islands or delimit maritime boundaries. The People's Republic of China and Taiwan stated that they did not recognise the tribunal and insisted that the matter should be resolved through bilateral negotiations with other claimants.
China enjoys indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea and the island. China's stand is based on historical facts and international law. China's sovereign rights and positions are formed in the course of history and this position has been held by Chinese Government for long. On the basis of this China is ready to engage in peaceful negotiations and friendly consultations to peacefully solve the disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights so as to positively contribute to peace and tranquility in the South China Sea area.
We hope that the relevant countries respect China's position and refrain from taking unilateral action to complicate and expand the issue. We hope they will respect and support countries in the region to solve the bilateral disputes through bilateral channels. As for oil and gas exploration activities, China’s consistent position is that we are opposed to any country engaging in oil and gas exploration and development activities in waters under China's jurisdiction. We hope the foreign countries do not get involved in South China Sea dispute.
The Shangri-La Dialogue serves as the "Track One" exchange forum on security issues surrounding the Asia-Pacific region. The South China Sea territorial disputes has dominated proceedings at the conference in recent years. The Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific is the "Track Two" forum for dialogue on security issues.
In February 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama initiated the US-ASEAN Summit at Sunnylands in Rancho Mirage, California for closer engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea were a major topic, but its joint statement, the "Sunnylands Declaration", did not name the South China Sea, instead calling for "respect of each nation's sovereignty and for international law". Analysts believe it indicates divisions within the group on how to respond to China's maritime strategy.
The vast majority of international legal experts have concluded that China's claims based on historical claims are invalid.
Japanese scholar Taoka Shunji criticised Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for trying to falsely portray China as a threat to Japan and that China was invading neighbours, such as, the Philippines. He pointed out that the Spratly Islands were not part of the Philippines when the US acquired the Philippines from Spain in the Treaty of Paris in 1898 and that Japanese-ruled Taiwan itself had annexed the Spratly Islands in 1938 in a move that was never challenged by the US-ruled Philippines, which never asserted that it was their territory. He also pointed out that other countries did not need to do full land reclamation since they already controlled islands and that the reason China engaged in extensive land reclamation is because they needed it to build airfields since China only has control over reefs.
President Trump's administration has increased the freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea region as a part of their dynamic force employment strategy. The new U.S. strategy is to be unpredictable and deploy ships to the area without notice. As of May 2019, the United States has conducted four freedom of navigation operations in the Spratlys during the early 2019. In 2019, the United States has also twice flown B-52 Stratofortress bombers near the PRC-claimed islands in the Spratlys.
Last month also saw an increase in the US’ involvement in the area as they drafted in the US Coast Guard (USCG) for the first time since the Cold War. As part of its deployment the USCG will carry out joint exercises with regional partners. Admiral Karl Leo Schultz, commandant of the USCG, told Asia Times in a recent interview that “there are ongoing discussions, ongoing planning efforts” to support the US Indo-Pacific Command’s (INDO-PACOM) operations in the South China Sea.
Admiral Karl Leo Schultz added, “We have partnered up in training [allies] to enhance security in the region. “We are keenly focused on those likeminded partners, building a regional approach.”
During the visit in October to oversee the Sama-Sama exercises, the admiral stressed that US involvement was only to reassure strategic partners and bring peace to the region through greater security. He said, “In the face of coercive and antagonistic behaviour from China in disputed waters, the US Coast Guard offers transparent engagement and partnership at both the professional and personal levels.”
Tensions between China and both the Philippines and Vietnam have recently cooled, even as China increased its military activity in the South China Sea by conducting a series of naval maneuvers and exercises. Meanwhile, China continues to construct military and industrial outposts on artificial islands it has built in disputed waters.
The United States has also stepped up its military activity and naval presence in the region in recent times, including freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs). In a speech during his November 2017 visit to Southeast Asia, President Donald J. Trump emphasised the importance of such operations, and of ensuring free and open access to the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the United States has conducted six FONOPs in the region.
In recent years, satellite imagery has shown China’s increased efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea by physically increasing the size of islands or creating new islands altogether. In addition to piling sand onto existing reefs, China has constructed ports, military installations, and airstrips—particularly in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, where it has twenty and seven outposts, respectively. China has militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets, cruise missiles, and a radar system.
To protect its political, security, and economic interests in the region, the United States has challenged China’s assertive territorial claims and land reclamation efforts by conducting FONOPs and bolstering support for Southeast Asian partners. Also in response to China’s assertive presence in the disputed territory, Japan has sold military ships and equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam in order to improve their maritime security capacity and to deter any Chinese aggression.
The United States has a role in preventing military escalation resulting from the territorial dispute. Washington’s defense treaty with Manila could draw the United States into a potential China-Philippines conflict over the substantial natural gas deposits or lucrative fishing grounds in disputed territory. The failure of Chinese and Southeast Asian leaders to resolve the disputes by diplomatic means could also undermine international laws governing maritime disputes and encourage destabilising arms buildups.
A top Chinese general has a warning for any U.S. leaders planning an arms race in space: Be prepared to lose. Outspending a rival power into economic exhaustion might have helped the U.S. win the Cold War, said Qiao Liang, a major general in the Chinese air force who co-wrote a book called "Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America." But he said it won’t work against a wealthy manufacturing powerhouse like China.
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The writer is a political commentator based in Bangladesh who writes on politics, political and human-centred figures, current and international affairs.
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