The international forces that we can anticipate in the next five years will most certainly colour our progress in Sri Lanka.
by Victor Cherubim
Elections all around the world are “tamashas” or so they say? People in Sri Lanka seem not to be taken in on all the promises made by the candidates in the Presidential election, this time round?
To be considered good, effective and successful, a President must be a good persuader and be able to deliver.
There are three systematic and rigorous dimensions used to measure success.
First, people evaluate and assess the external factors that the President will face when he takes up office and how well he can deal with those situations, events and crises ahead.
Next, they examine his ratings in public opinion polls in being able to perform and deliver.
Finally, they analyse and assess his potential success in implementing his campaign promises.
External factors
We in Sri Lanka often give credence to what is of primary importance within the nation. Well, that is not what scholars think it necessary as a measure of success today.
Of course, we know of three things that come to mind in Sri Lanka as our priorities:
1. Drug menace
2. Corruption
3. Religious extremism
We tend to think that if the new President is able to initiate change to eradicate or control the above three issues facing Sri Lanka at the present, he could consider himself successful? This premise could be accepted if Sri Lanka can achieve all three issues on its own steam.
We also note that as a small nation island what happens around our waters affects us in a very serious, if not a subtle way. Why? Today, we have to accept that world events control much of what we can do, more than ever before. We have seen international events, problems can “drive out” domestic concerns. Thus, salient international events and Presidential action in the foreign arena does enhance the public standing of any President in our island, as well as in the world.
What are these international forces?
The international forces that we can anticipate in the next five years will most certainly colour our progress in Sri Lanka.
First and foremost is the fact that the world may be heading toward its next big slowdown. Downturns historically come about once every decade and it has been more than that since the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, it was the banking crisis. Banks were thought to be too big to fail and wreaked financial havoc on us all. Today, we can be in little doubt that the next big crisis will be different. It is argued that it will emanate from “Big Tech” which at present is using its lobbying muscle to avoid regulation and thinks it should play by different rules. Because of this the “wealth divide” has been increased which is driving political populism.
Our next President has to meet head on the next crisis upon us, which is the deflationary power of technology. This means that all the time technology has driven down the prices of things and has kept interest low. Thus, Central Banks will have much less room to navigate unlike in the past through any upcoming crisis. We in Sri Lanka in the past, have relied more on this method to manage our debt.
Our new President, whoever he is, will have as his priority how to tackle growing self-regulation, which has become the norm in the world. Risks posed by increased reliance on technology as well as risks to the global economy will become major concerns for us? We need to be prepared to tackle this. For this we need cooperation and forethought.
Internal factors
A more aged or ageing population in Sri Lanka than ever before is before us. People in the world and in Sri Lanka are living longer than ever. Which is great, but the downside is all those senior citizens are going to require care at the expense of the younger generation? The new President may have to think seriously about our declining birth rates.
What about the “have’s and the have nots”?
The chasm between rich and poor have never mattered more to a Sri Lankan President than now. Solving this level of inequality will be held up as a grand challenge to the incoming President.
The issue in Sri Lanka is not the existence of unfairness. Some people in the recent past have been treated preferentially and others unjustly.
First, the idea that people should have equal opportunity in society regardless of their background, race or gender.
Second, is fair distribution of wealth, which means that benefits and/or rewards should be distributed fairly, based on merit.
There is much silence about the poverty in the Sinhalese heartlands, rather than in other parts of the land. This must be corrected.
Finally, the equality of outcome or the fact that people of all races receive equal outcomes regardless of circumstances.
A tall order for the new President
The new President has no choice but at the start of his terms to declare war on poverty. The poverty trap has spiralled for far too long and the same people have been poor for far too long.
The new President must get new minds and put a face on poverty.
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