The prospect of space tourism looms ahead, making our minds soar with dreams of flights into the heavens. This could be a reality in 2050. All this brings to bear the question as to how we should handle outer space given the dimensions envisioned. How would we handle space tourism?
by Dr. Ruwantissa Abeyratne
Writing from Montreal
“it’s judgment time” The World in 2020, The Economist
The year 2020 is not far off and is a good point at which we could inquire into the scenario that confronts us in the next 30 years. One of the reasons for this is that 2020 could be taken as the inflexion point between 30 years ago – where in 1990 there were no internet browsers nor the internet and 2050 artificial intelligence (AI) would dominate as the super technology that would make the world revolve round the individual rather than the State, a group of States or institutions.
At a recent seminar on scenario planning with focus on aviation which the author attended, it was emphasized that scenario planning should eschew certainty based on current trends and focus on “plausibilities”. These plausibilities would be driven by various factors that would remain with us over the next 30 years, such as turbulence; uncertainty; novelty and ambiguity (TUNA) and genetics; robotics; nano technology; and information (GRIN). The moderator of the seminar went on to define scenario planning as “a small set of manufactured possible future contexts of something; for someone; for a purpose; with a pre-specified use interface and actual use”.
Even to the most sophisticated planning brain this soup of acronyms and logic based on a contrived accumulation of single instances would appear esoteric and ambivalent to say the least. What was clear in the message was that the groups assigned to create scenarios of the future must ascertain what is not by taking yesterday’s data, model it and forecast plausible scenarios. Contrary to these instructions, many groups honed in on their comfort zone of analyzing the megatrends – large global transformative forces that affect our existential life in the present context – and stayed for the most part on climate change being a major factor in 2050, ignoring the obvious fact that if by that time humans had not solved the climate change conundrum we would not be there to discuss the issue in the first place.
Some of the thoughts presented by the author at the seminar focused on the prominence of aerospace rather than air transport in 2050. For example, the use of aerospace in terrestrial transportation where an aerospace plane will take off as an aircraft, go into orbit, enter the atmosphere using the Earth’s orbit into its destination, cutting the travel time significantly, would be a distinct plausibility. It is said that by using this method, air travel time can be reduced drastically. For instance, a journey by air between Los Angeles and Sydney, which would now take 16 hours by conventional air travel, could take 2 hours or less. None of these technological feats would be possible without the advancement of information technology and computerized knowledge-sharing which would have reached its zenith by that time.
The prospect of space tourism looms ahead, making our minds soar with dreams of flights into the heavens. This could be a reality in 2050. All this brings to bear the question as to how we should handle outer space given the dimensions envisioned. How would we handle space tourism?
Another “plausible” dimension is the colonization of Mars, where, by 2050 there will be humans living and working in Mars. These two would certainly come within the definition of “a small set of manufactured possible future contexts…”
Through AI, connectivity within the globe as well as outside would be much more seamless than it is today and the global economy would benefit by the further development of concepts such as Blockchain - a revolutionary tool in the financial sector that started as the platform for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and is now widely recognized as usable and useful in other sectors of entrepreneurship. It is a decentralized database that is maintained by a distributed network of computers which assists entrepreneurs to track down transactions to the minute, obviating the risk of misinformation. For instance, a bank could track down the creditworthiness of a potential client or customer through transactions the details of which are in the Blockchain. In simple terms a Blockchain can be likened to a ledger such as a spreadsheet (e.g. Excel) where, unlike in a typical spreadsheet where information contained can be changed, in Blockchain any information therein cannot be changed. It is also “hack resistant” in that it is cryptographically secure and there is no central database. The information in Blockchain is distributed and not centralized or decentralized. Blockchain operates on a mechanism called “consensus algorithm” which determines what is placed in the Blockchain subject to agreement of its users, and, when it operates with full automation, it promises transparency that could greatly assist with good business decisions; increased accountability; and consistency in execution.
In the air transport context, Blockchain can be a useful tool in numerous areas in the management and sharing of data sources. For instance, in Advance Passenger Information (API) and Passenger Name Records (PNR) which involve data records, Blockchain could be an effective platform that could securely share data and information. Another area is ticketing and loyalty programmes where e-tickets could be in Blockchain and sold by partners to airline alliances in real time. This could also be tied in with loyalty programmes where passengers can use points earned as currency. In the area of air freight, the digitizing of the various information required in Blockchain could greatly assist in reducing cumbersome paperwork. Yet another area would be in personnel licencing and the registration of aircraft where Blockchain’s anti-tamper mechanism can ensure accuracy and security of records. Blockchain can act as a registry of mobile assets by moving the International Registry of Mobile Assets. Blockchain could also be extended to transactions in the aviation industry where leasing of aircraft and purchasing of parts and costs incurred in flight operations could all go into the decentralized database of the Blockchain. It could also be of benefit to regulatory authorities who could keep tabs on service providers and their compliance with regulations.
Aircraft manufacturers and airlines could be assured that their contracts are contained in transparent digital databases in digital codes with a reasonable assurance that they will not be hacked, deleted, tampered with or revised. Every inclusion – be it process, payment or task – would be identifiable through its digital record in Blockchain and would have a signature and could be validated, properly stored and shared. The middle men such as lawyers, brokers and bankers would be eliminated. Machines and individuals could freely transact with each other. This notwithstanding, it must be noted that Blockchain will not attack an existing or traditional business model by disrupting its business process. It merely adds a foundation of technology that enables the introduction of new ways to conduct business and facilitate economies and social systems.
Blockchain has its weak points. For instance, from a legal standpoint, Blockchain cannot be easily tied to a particular jurisdiction as servers of its digital ledger could be based anywhere, and therefore in case of a fraud, erroneous transaction or inherent defect the greatest legal challenge would be identifying the lex situs or location of the transaction or fraud. An additional drawback could be the opacity brought to bear by the anonymity provided to its users. Another consideration would be that although Blockchain introduces an efficient way of doing the same thing, its users must have a clear idea as to how it can be used to achieve their end goals.
If one were to have indulged in scenario planning in 1990 one wonders whether any of the prevailing factors today would have been envisioned. Would 9/11 have come within our speculation? How about Afghanistan and Iraq? Would they have been predicted through the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the US invasion of Iraq? TUNA my not have spewed out these scenarios. On the other hand, would TUNA tell us that in 2050 it is plausible that the United Nations will exist? Would NATO be strengthened or disappear completely? How far would cybersecurity have advanced?
We have only GRIN to build on. In an uncertain, turbulent ambiguous world where novelty is the key driver, and where the number of transistors in a micro chip doubles every two years at half the cost, it may not be implausible to assume that the possibility of a scenario happening is zero.
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