Candidate Rajapaksa’s first media conference was more baby pool than ocean. Yet he often floundered and meandered.
by Tisaranee
Gunasekara
“You are talking
all the time on the past, no. Ask the future (laughs) I’m trying to become the
president of the future Sri Lanka. If you concentrate on the future, I think it
is better (laughs).”
Gotabaya
Rajapaksa (at his inaugural media conference)
The past is what Gotabaya Rajapaksa
invokes when he tells us to vote for him. In his glitzy propaganda material,
the past has the pride of place - the war-winning man and the Colombo-beautifying
man.
He wants us to remember the past but
not all the past, only the approved bits. When questioned about the Other past
at his inaugural media conference, he turned testy and evasive. “Ask the
future,” he told the media.
The next day, his media spokesman,
Dulles Allahapperuma issued guidelines about questioning Candidate Rajapaksa. Don’t
ask him about the past, Mr. Allhapperuma said, ask him about his opinions and
ideas.
Ask the future.
At the media conference, the future
was not forgotten. Some of the questions Candidate Gotabaya managed to answer, often
with a general dose of platitudes. But when asked how he will finance the
generous promises he is making, he had no answer to give. He turned speechless
again, when questioned about the debt crisis. When a journalist asked him about
extremism and reconciliation, he was silent for several long seconds; he
stared, smiled and made a circular gesture with one hand, eventually giving an
answer that had little to do with the question. On issues that could shape the
future he was as clueless as he was unforthcoming about issues that coloured
the past.
At the conference he didn’t have a
meltdown, didn’t call any woman journalist a shit eating pig (as he did when
Fredrica Jansz questioned him about the Swiss-puppy) or threaten to hang a
political opponent (Gen. Sarath Fonseka). But his dislike of probing questions
and follow-ups were was clear. Asked why he didn’t attend the all candidate
confab on October 5th (he promised to attend it and didn’t) his
response was characteristic of both the man and of the president he intends to
be. “I have presented my policy proposals on many occasions,” he said, followed
by his signature laugh. “Therefore it’s not necessary to go to a place where
there are about ten opponents, and one is isolated.”
Candidate
Rajapaksa’s first media conference was more baby pool than ocean. Yet he often floundered
and meandered. No wonder he has been shackled to a teleprompter ever since he
was named the SLPP’s presidential candidate. In a theatre where every move,
every word is controlled, he can don the mantle of sagacity, play the
philosopher-technocrat to his heart’s content.
A firefly needs the darkness of the
night to shine.
The president of the future Sri Lanka
There’s
much to say for the teleprompter-habit. No off-the-cuff gems that Sajith
Premadasa and his merry men excel at (especially Harsha de Silva, who is rapidly
becoming the lead joker in a pack of jokers). Every word can be taken seriously,
because every word is meant. Like these words, this pledge by Gotabaya
Rajapaksa at his inaugural campaign rally: “A large number of war heroes are in
jails on trumped up charges. At this moment I’d like to say by the morning of
the 17th all of them would be acquitted and freed.” (At the media
conference he was asked how many military personnel are in custody. He didn’t
answer, perhaps because he didn’t want to admit that the answer is 7 - 48
military personnel were arrested by the CID since 2015. 41 have been bailed
out.)
A
president can pardon a convicted criminal. But only a judge can acquit and
discharge an accused. Therefore Gotabaya Rajapaksa intends to begin his
presidency by violating the constitution, by breaking the law, by exercising
powers the presidency never had, no presidency anywhere has. If any judge or lawyer tries to resist this
gross constitutional violation, he/she would probably be accused of treason and
locked up, if not worse. Given the primordial silence of the Bar Association
about Candidate Gotabaya’s statement, it is reasonable to assume that there won’t
be any protests when President Gotabaya sets himself up as the judge and jury.
The country will fall onto its collective knees, allowing the president of the
future to shape the future any which way he likes.
In
his warning to the media about permissible and non-permissible areas of
questioning, Dulles Alahapperuma said that Gotabaya Rajapaksa separates black
from white. No arguments there. When Mervyn Silva’s son Malaka Silva assaulted
Major Chandana Pradeep of the Military Intelligence, the self-appointed
godfather of all war-heroes, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa threw that particular war hero
under the bus. He saved the ministerial brat by criminalising the major,
accusing him of “acting as a personal bodyguard of
an individual, which is beyond his duties” (Sri Lanka News – 14.9.2012). Amongst those he intends to acquit and
discharge are the four military personnel charged with killing three unarmed
protestors in Rathupaswala.
Black and white.
Like ACSA and SOFA, black as
imperialism when others try to renew the agreements, white as national
sovereignty when Gotabaya Rajapaksa renews them. The two agreements with the US
were first signed under the presidency of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga
and renewed under the presidency of Mahinda Rajapaksa, with not a hum from
anyone. When they came up for renewal this year, the SLPP went into a patriotic
frenzy, accusing Ranil Wickremesinghe of turning the island into an American
military base, the Guantanamo of the Indian Ocean. The SLPP patriots even
formed an organisation, STOP USA, to
defeat this ‘great betrayal’. “If Sri
Lanka does not take a stand against…there will be no turning back,”
Parliamentarian Wimal Weerawansa thundered (Ceylon
Today – 26.6.2019). His partner in hysteria, parliamentarian Udaya
Gammanpila warned, “The time has come for us to find allies that will not
intervene in our internal affairs. Even if this agreement was for a certain
time period, what happens when the time period is over and if the US refuses to
leave?” (Ibid). Mr. Rajapaksa, who until recently
was a Sri Lankan-American, remained silent as his supporters screamed about an
imminent American invasion.
When asked about how ACSA and SOFA
would impact on Sri Lanka’s non-aligned status, Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s reply was
they didn’t. “The agreement we signed went on for ten years.” He said, and laughed.
“Nothing actually happened with that. The benefit was for us. Not for them.”
Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila both actively participated in the media
conference, but remained silent as their candidate gave the lie to their fiery
campaign of last several months. (Incidentally, thanks to the Rajapaksa
mandated STOP USA campaign, President Sirisena deferred the renewal of the
Millennium Challenge Corporation grant by six months. As a result, Sri Lanka
stands to lose – or has already lost - a grant of US$ 480 million.)
Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the president of
the future Sri Lanka, is breaking new ground in this campaign going back to the
past. On September 26th, he and Brother Mahinda attended the Shanthikarmavedinge Jathika Sammelanaya,
a gathering of kapuwas, exorcists, astrologers etc, at the Sri Lanka Exhibition
and Convention Centre. According to internet reports, the brothers promised the
gathering that these ‘god-men’ will be accepted as a separate profession, given
a separate ID card and registered in the Cultural Ministry. A special
administrative unit will also be established for them. Are we in the Duvalier
territory, with this politicisation of superstition?
Ask the future, where disorder is
discipline, lawlessness is law, impunity is justice and superstition is
knowledge.
The God-president?
The Mirror and the Light, the long
awaited final book in Hilary Mantel’s trilogy on Thomas Cromwell will be out in
2020. The official publicity video carries a quote from the book: What have I but what my king gave me? What
am I but what he has made me?
Those
two lines encapsulate the nature of monarchic despotism where king was god. It
was a past common to most of the world. And in some parts of the world, it
remains a possible future.
Candidate Rajapaksa clearly has
little knowledge and even less interest in constitutional provisions. He sees post-19th
Amendment presidency not as it is – a weakened institution sans many of its powers – but as it never was – an omnipotent
position that will make him an uncrowned king, not a constitutional monarch,
but an absolutist one, the head of all three branches of government including
the judiciary.
The only man standing in Gotabaya
Rajapaksa’s path to a god-presidency might be his older brother. Mahinda
Rajapaksa is now the spiritual leader of Sri Lanka, at least according to Basil
Rajapaksa. “No matter who our candidate or our president is, our leader
(Mahinda Rajapaksa) will be the head of the government (as PM). So this
arrangement suits us well. He is our leader and he is the spiritual leader of our country” (The Hindu – 13.10.2019 – emphasis mine).
Mahinda Rajapaksa’s elevation from
the secular to the sacred plane, from High King (maharajano) to spiritual leader is but the logical conclusion of
the Rajapaksas’ boundless self-veneration. But Gotabaya Rajapaksa is unlikely
to be content to play nominal president to his brother’s spiritual-leader PM.
The contestation between the two siblings and their attendant satellites to lay
claim to the centre of gravity in the new regime would make an interesting
spectacle, assuming anyone interested in such matters is in a fit shape to
observe.
Totalitarian in intent, familial in
nature, violent in means, majoritarian supremacist, deeply rooted in
superstition under a technocratic and futuristic veneer, adhering to a
kith-and-kin capitalism (which combines the worse features of neo-liberalism and
statism) – where to pigeon-hole Sri Lanka under a Gotabaya presidency is
uncertain. But stable is one thing it will not be. When Mahinda Rajapaksa was
the president, his word was the law for his brothers. Who will call the shots
when younger brother Gotabaya is the president and older brother Mahinda is the
prime minister? What happens when the likes of Kamal Gunaratne, Mohan
Wijewickrama and Chagi Gallage confront the likes of Dinesh Gunawardane,
Keheliya Rambukwella and Dulles Alahapperuma for power, influence and wealth?
Will the Lankan state become the terrain of contestation between the armies of
God-president and Spiritual leader?
Is this future our unavoidable fate?
Not yet. The election is wide open still. There is no clear winner the way
there was in 2015 or 2010, yet. Currently Gotabaya Rajapaksa is the
frontrunner. But given the nature of the man and his politics, his path to
victory, while short, is also extremely narrow. He can never win anything other
than a sliver of the minority vote. If he fails to win the SLFP vote in
near-entirety, he cannot win outright. If he fails to win a majority of the
SLFP vote (50% or above) he can lose. If he gains less than 30% of the SLFP
vote, he will lose.
A percentage of the 2018
SLFP vote will go to the SLPP, but how much that would be is and would remain
unknowable until after the election. There is a real possibility that a
majority of those who voted for the SLFP in 2018 will not vote for the SLPP in
2019. The pro-Rajapaksa SLFPers are no longer in the SLFP. Those who remain are
more likely to be Bandaranaike supporters or left-of-centre voters with a more
modernist outlook and therefore uncomfortable with the extreme brand of familial
politics practiced by the Rajapaksas.
If Sajith Premadasa can
gain more than 75% of the SLFP vote and
more than 75% of the N/E minority vote, he can defeat Gotabaya Rajapaksa, if
not outright, then in the second round. His chances will improve considerably
if he can persuade those who vote for various third party candidates to give
him the second preference, as the only way to stop a Gotabaya-victory. When the
real contest is between a joker and a murderer, the choice is cringe-worthy but
clear. Sajith Premadasa with his embarrassing antics might give democracy a bad
name, but he will not set out to destroy democracy on the morning after.
Unfortunately, Sajith
Premadasa is yet to emerge from the echo-chamber of his supporters’ hurrahs and
face reality. To overtake Gotabaya Rajapaksa and reach the finish line, he has
a long way to go.
Filling the Galle Face
will not win him election. To win, he needs to heal the fissures in the UNP he
and his supporters worsened in their vitriolic campaign to win the candidacy.
To win, he must understand that his constituency is no longer Hambantota, but
Sri Lanka, a place of not just Sinhalese, Buddhists and monks, but also of
Tamils, Muslims, Hindus and Christians, a place of not just villages but also
of cities and towns.
Even if Sajith Premadasa
gains a majority of the SLFP vote, he cannot without the minorities. If he
thinks the minorities will flock to his side because of their fear of a
Gotabaya-presidency, while he spends all his time chasing the mirage that is
Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist vote, he is mistaken. The episode with the fasting
disabled soldiers should have taught him a lesson about what his real constituency
is. His assumed nativism didn’t work even in Hambantota (where he never
equalled the UNP’s national average, except once). It will fail miserably in
multi-ethnic, multi-religious Sri Lanka.
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