by S. Chandrasekharan
On 21st December, in a surprise move, the Army Chief Gen. Hliang announced a four-month ceasefire of operations in the northern and eastern regions bordering China and to end by April 30th 2019.
The idea, it is said, is
to let the Government have some free space to negotiate with the ethnic Insurgent Groups
that have not so far signed the ceasefire agreement. The Army announced that they are forming
special teams of Army Officers to help the Government in the negotiations. It is also sad that this period will be
utilized in settling the differences among the signatories themselves like the
one between the KNU and the RCSS , though no mention was made of the conflicts
between the Army and some of the ethnic groups that have signed the national
cease-fire agreement.
The Northern Alliance consisting of KIO, TNLA, MNDAA and
AA met on 27th and responded to the Ceasefire declaration. They said that they would halt all military
activities but offered to hold talks in China and not within Myanmar. It was
also mentioned that the talks should involve the Government, the Military and
the ethnic groups belonging to the FPNCC.
Significantly the offer of ceasefire did not include the
operations that are going on in Northern Rakhine State because of the
continuing threat from the ARSA as declared by the Army. The reason could be
that the operations against the Arakan Army and the ARSA do not affect the
Chinese border as the present cease fire order appears to be China driven. China also suspects that ARSA is in league
with Uighur terrorists of Xinjiang.
The Arakan Army has also not been quiet. On 4th January, over 300 Arakan Army
Insurgents attacked four border posts in Rakhine State’s Buthidaung
Township. 14 Policemen were killed and 7
injured and another 14 taken prisoners. The prisoners that had 14 Border Police Officers and 9 civilian
women were returned the next day.
Earlier, there was another incident suspected to be by
the ARSA when two Buddhists were killed, and their throats slit. Counter
operations have been going on since then.
It is therefore no surprise that the operational areas in
the northern Rakhine State have been excluded from the Army’s ceasefire
declaration. But it will be an
embarrassment both to the Northern Alliance and the bigger group- the Federal
Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) led by United Wa State
Army, backed by China, as the AA is part of the Northern Alliance and the
FPNCC. Yet the northern alliance had
agreed for the negotiations apparently on the advice of the Chinese as the
present initiative of the Army appears to be China driven and China backed
move.
The Army also insisted on four of the six points it had
demanded earlier from the ethnic groups in accepting the cease-fire and these
were-
- Avoid capitalizing on the cease-fire Agreement.
- Avoid placing a heavy burden on the local people
- Abide by the existing laws.
- Adhere to the promises agreed to in the peace declaration.
Reasonable enough, though no monitoring system to
supervise the cease fire and an institutionalized system to resolve allegations
of ceasefire violations which normally arise in case of conflicts have been
made.
More significantly, the Myanmar Army chief claimed on the
same day he announced the unilateral cessation of operation that the peace process
will be completed by 2020. Why
2020? Was he referring to the next
General elections when the NLD of Suu Kyi
is not likely to get the same majority and the Army backed USDP (Union
Solidarity & Development Party) is expected to have a better showing!
The Army’s position on the cease fire needs a fundamental
paradigm change as the 2008 Constitution is not federal in character and needs
to be amended. Only then can meaningful
talks take place to look for a permanent solution to the ethnic problem that has
battered the country since its independence.
The Army Chief has not helped the situation, when he declared following
the cease-fire declaration that the ethnic armed groups need to participate in
the peace process if they accept democracy and national development through
national unity and solidarity!
The cease-fire has to be a long and sustaining one and
nothing can be achieved within the four months stipulated by the Army.
Why then did the Army declare a temporary cease fire now
when it can continue the operations against the Northern Alliance for any
length of time? The Myanmar media
suggests that that the idea is to divert international attention where they are
under pressure both individually and collectively for their operations and
alleged atrocities against the Rohingyas.
This does not appear to be the position as they will be facing flak
anyway in the coming months from the International Criminal Court and the UN
backed Human Rights Groups.
What is more likely is that it is at the initiative of
China who seem to be in need for peace and stability in their border region
with Myanmar for successful completion and operation of projects under the BRI.
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