A New Space Race

by Wendy Whitman Cobb

China became the third country to
land a probe on the Moon on Jan. 2. But, more importantly, it became the first
to do so on the far side of the moon, often called the dark side. The ability
to land on the far side of the moon is a technical achievement in its own
right, one that neither Russia nor the United States has pursued.

The probe, Chang’e 4, is symbolic of
the growth of the Chinese space program and the capabilities it has amassed,
significant for China and for relations among the great power across the world.
The consequences extend to the United States as the Trump administration
considers global competition in space as well as the future of space
exploration.

One of the major drivers of U.S. space policy historically has been
competition with Russia particularly in the context of the Cold
War. If China’s successes continue to accumulate, could the United States find
itself engaged in a new space race?

China’s
achievements in space

Like the U.S. and Russia, the
People’s Republic of China first engaged in space activities during the
development of ballistic missiles in the 1950s. While they did benefit from
some assistance from the Soviet Union, China developed its space program largely on its own.
Far from smooth sailing, Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and the Cultural
Revolution disrupted this early programs.

The Chinese launched their first
satellite in 1970. Following this, an early human spaceflight program was put
on hold to focus on commercial satellite applications. In 1978, Deng
Xiaoping articulated China’s space policy noting that, as a
developing country, China would not take part in a space race. Instead, China’s space efforts have focused on
both launch vehicles and satellites - including communications, remote sensing
and meteorology.

This does not mean the Chinese were
not concerned about the global power space efforts can generate. In 1992, they
concluded that having a space station would be a
major sign and source of prestige in the 21st century. As such,
a human spaceflight program was re-established leading to the development of
the Shenzhou spacecraft. The first Chinese astronaut, or taikonaut, Yang Liwei,
was launched in 2003. In total, six Shenzhou missions have carried 12
taikonauts into low earth orbit, including two to China’s first space station,
Tiangong-1.

In addition to human spaceflight, the
Chinese have also undertaken scientific missions like Chang’e 4. Its first
lunar mission, Chang’e 1, orbited the moon in October 2007 and a rover landed
on the moon in 2013. China’s future plans include a new space
station, a lunar base and possible sample return missions from Mars.

A new space race?

Wendy Whitman Cobb

The most notable feature of the
Chinese space program, especially compared to the early American and Russian
programs, is its slow and steady pace. Because of the secrecy that surrounds
many aspects of the Chinese space program, its exact capabilities are unknown.
However, the program is likely on par with its counterparts.

In terms of military applications,
China has also demonstrated significant skills. In 2007, it undertook an
anti-satellite test, launching a ground-based missile to destroy a failed
weather satellite. While successful, the test created a cloud of orbital debris that continues to threaten other
satellites. The movie “Gravity” illustrated the dangers space debris poses to
both satellites and humans. In its 2018 report on the Chinese military, the
Department of Defense reported that China’s military space program “continues
to mature rapidly.”

Despite its capabilities, the U.S.,
unlike other countries, has not engaged in any substantial cooperation with
China because of national security concerns. In fact, a 2011 law bans official contact with
Chinese space officials. Does this signal a new space race between the U.S. and
China?

As a space policy researcher, I can
say the answer is yes and no. Some U.S. officials, including Scott Pace, the
executive secretary for the National Space Council, are cautiously optimistic about the potential
for cooperation and do not see the beginning of a new space race. NASA Administrator Jim Brindenstine recently met with the head of the
Chinese space program at the International Astronautical
Conference in Germany and discussed areas where China and the U.S. can work
together. However, increased military presence in space might spark increased
competition. The Trump administration has used the threat posed by China and
Russia to support its argument for a new independent military branch, a Space Force.

Regardless, China’s abilities in
space are growing to the extent that is reflected in popular culture. In Andy
Weir’s 2011 novel “The Martian” and its later film version, NASA turns to China
to help rescue its stranded astronaut. While competition can lead to advances
in technology, as the first space race demonstrated, a greater global capacity
for space exploration can also be beneficial not only for saving stranded
astronauts but increasing knowledge about the universe where we all live. Even
if China’s rise heralds a new space race, not all consequences will be
negative.

The writer is an associate Professor of Political Science, Cameron University