| by Victor Cherubim
( May 22, 2013, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) “Whispers can sometimes be louder than fanfares” so the saying goes.
The visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to New Delhi on Sunday 19 May 2013, some 27 years after his last visit and the visit of India’s Foreign Minister, Salman Khurshid to Beijing ten days previous, speak volumes about the Chinese proverb quoted by Premier Li: “a distant relative may not be as useful as a near neighbour,” which no doubt has varied overtones.
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President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s sixth visit to China soon to meet the new Chairman and Leader Xi Jinping will be keenly watched, not only the media but by all the powers. How does this fit in China’s dream and how does this fit in Sri Lankan diplomacy, is anybody’s guess.
The media is naturally taking a lot of interest in both visits and developments. Notwithstanding the wit and the diplomacy of the Chinese Premier which we note but the body language of Indian Premier Manmohan Singh in welcoming his guest does matter, thus leading to the signing of Eight (8) agreements for trade between India and China.
In 1962 some 51 years ago China defeated India in its border dispute in the Ladakh region in Kashmir. But times have changed or has the perception altered? The downturn in world economy is partly to account for this new approach between two neighbours. India’s $70 billion trade target with China in 2015 cannot be downplayed. Besides, India’s economy is sagging and there is also the lingering envy of China’s economic success.
The Chinese Premier stated:”both Mr. Singh and I believe there are far more interests than differences between our two sides. We need to confront issues with a broad mind and tackle them in a mature way.”
The Indian Prime Minister went on to state:”we agreed that our special representatives will meet soon to continue discussions seeking an early agreement on a framework for a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable boundary settlement.”
Is there a meeting of the minds?
There has always been a meeting of minds between China and India. The ”border spat” has not derailed a general warming of relations between neighbours in recent times. India and China are members, in fact ardent members of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) forum of emerging world nations. China does not view lightly India’s close relations with the United States. India too does, it appears, view with askance the closer connection between China and the Pacific Rim nations with United States as a key ally.
China watcher, Binoda Mishra says:”China’s policy towards India appears to be more nuanced than many imagine in India.”
India’s attitude towards China’s growing influence particularly in Central Asia is of natural concern to Indian scholars, who are deeply sceptical of China’s ambitions in Central Asia. Yet the omission of Tibet from the joint statement is a clear indication that India does not want to rock the boat.
To my mind, both India and China are still very much concerned with basic balance of power considerations.
Strategists on both sides maintain that “each is too big to contain each other, or by any other country.” India perhaps want a North / South trade route. China may want a Pacific Rim trade route.
Sea vs. Land Power
China’s vision exhorts its faithful to be rich and strong. Like the American dream, China too has a dream.
China’s dream is the power of the sea. Sea power has enabled the West to reach out in history around the world. China’s maritime interests and national security will no doubt bear unique features to the influence of sea power in history of nations.
How does the China-India axis affect Sri Lanka
President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s sixth visit to China soon to meet the new Chairman and Leader Xi Jinping will be keenly watched, not only the media but by all the powers. How does this fit in China’s dream and how does this fit in Sri Lankan diplomacy, is anybody’s guess.
Whispers can be louder than fanfares.
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