“Her government, however, does not retain confidence of country and I believe would be probably defeated if election were held tomorrow,” its further said. Full text of the cable is follows;
PAGE 01 COLOMB 00001 181036Z
50
ACTION NEA-12
INFO OCT-01 EUR-25 ISO-00 IO-14 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-07 H-03
INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-10 PA-04 RSC-01 PRS-01 SPC-03
SS-20 USIA-15 AID-20 COME-00 EB-11 FRB-02 TRSE-00
XMB-07 OPIC-12 CIEP-02 LAB-06 SIL-01 OMB-01 INT-08
FEA-02 NIC-01 DRC-01 SCI-06 EA-11 ACDA-19 IGA-02
AGR-20 /261 W
--------------------- 011878
R 180905Z JAN 74
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 432
INFO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
AMEMBASSY DACCA
AMEMBASSY KABUL
AMEMBASSY TEHRAN
US LIAISON OFFICE PEKING 5
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY LONDON
USUN NEW YORK 290
CINCPAC
AMCONSUL MADRAS
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECION 1 OF 4 COLOMBO 0189
EO 11652: GDS
TAGS: PFOR, PINT, CE
SUBJ: IMPRESSIONS OF SRI LANKA CURRENT POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICIES
1. SUMMARY: THIS MESSAGE SUMS UP MY PERSONAL IMPRESSION OF
SRI LANKA'S INTERNAL POLITICS AND FOREIGN RELATIONS, AS SEEN IN
PERSPECTIVE OF MY FIRST YEAR IN COLOMBO.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 COLOMB 00001 181036Z
2. PM BANDRANIKE MAINTAINS UNDISPUTED LEADERSHIP SRI LANKA'S
PRESENT GOVERNMENT DESPITE SHARP RIVALRIES WITHIN HER UNITED
FRONT COALITION AND SUSTAINED ECONOMIC CRISIS. HER GOVERNMENT,
HOWEVER, DOES NOT RETAIN CONFIDENCE OF COUNTRY AND I BELIEVE
WOULD BE PROBABLY DEFEATED IF ELECTION WERE HELD TOMORROW.
GOVERNMENT'S UNPOPULARITY STEMS PRIMARILY FROM ITS FAILURE
FULFILL 1970 ELECTION PROMISES AND FACT IT HAS BEEN REQUIRED
CUT BACK SHARPLY ON FOOD AND SOCIAL WELFARE SUBSIDIES. HOWEVER,
OPPOSITION, WHILE ATTEMPTING EXPLOIT WIDESPREAD DISCON-
TNET WITH VIEW FORCING ELECTIONS PRIOR TO 1977, HAS BEEN UNABLE
BUILD EFFECTIVE ANTI-GOVERNMENT CAMPAIGN AND PRESENT PROSPECT
IS FOR GOVERNMENT TO HOLD POWER UNTIL AT LEAST 1975.
3. DESPITE CONTINUED MARXIST RHETORIC, GSL ECONOMIC POLICY
DURING PAST YEAR APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY TOWARD CENTER.
UNTIL ENERGY CRISIS STRUCK ISLAND, I FELT THERE WAS SOME
HOPE THAT GOVERNMENT'S FOOD PRODUCTION DRIVE WOULD SUCCEED AND
THAT DEPTH OF ECONOMIC CRISIS MIGHT HAVE PASSED. NOW, HOWEVER,
UNLESS RELIEF OBTAINED FROM RECENT OIL PRICE INCREASES, SHORT-
TERM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REMAIN DARK.
4. SRI LANKA NO LONGER PURSUES ACTIVE OR DYNAMIC FOREIGN
POLICY BECAUSE COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD ACTIVIST POLICY, APRIL
71 INSURGENCY DIVERTED ITS ATTENTION TO INTERNAL PROBLEMS,
AND NON-ALIGNMENT IN ASIA LACKS PREVIOUS POTENCY. MANY OF GSL'S
FOREIGN POLICIES ARE GEARED TO OBTAINING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE
TO CLOSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE GAP. WHILE GSL CONTINUES STRONGLY
SUPPORT NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT, FAILURE OF ARAB COUNTRIES TO
PROVIDE CONCESSIONAL PRICES FOR OIL HAS CREATED DISILLUSION.
5. SHARP PRC-USSR COMPETITION EXISTS ON ISLAND WHERE PRC HAS
BRIGHTEST IMAGE OF ANY EXTERNAL POWER BUT DOES NOT POSE
DIRECT THREAT TO INTEGRITY BANDARANAIKE GOVERNMENT. INDIANS,
LIKE SOVIETS, ARE CONCERNED ABOUT CHINESE INFLUENCE BUT INDIA
HAS PLAYED RESTRAINED ROLE DURING PAST YEAR.
6. ALTHOUGH GSL CONTINUES PROMOTE INDIAN OCEAN ZONE OF PEACE
AT UN, IT HAS ADOPTED MODERATE STANCE REGARDING RECENT US
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 COLOMB 00001 181036Z
NAVAL TASK FORCE VISIT TO INDIAN OCEAN. US-SRI LANKA RELATIONS
ARE GOOD AND I THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN GOOD AS LONG AS US
POLICIES DO NOT CONFLICT WITH IMMEDIATE CEYLONESE INTERESTS
AND PROVIDED USG CAN CONTINUE SUPPLY APPROPRIATE SHARE OF ECONOMIC
ASSISTANCE. END SUMMARY.
7. DURING MY CONSULTATION IN WASHINGTON LAST MONTH, I PASSED
ON SOME PERSONAL IMPRESSIONS OF CURRENT POLITICAL SCENE IN SRI
LANKA AND GSL'S FOREIGN POLICIES, AS VIEWED IN PERSPECTIVE
OF MY FIRST YEAR IN COLOMBO. FOLLOWING IS SUMMARY OF THESE
IMPRESSIONS WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL BE OF SOME VALUE TO SRI LANKA
WATCHERS AS 1974 BEGINS.
8. BANDARANIKE GOVERNMENT TODAY. CEYLONESE POLITICS HAS OFTEN
HAD CERTAIN ALICE-IN-WONDERLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND THIS REMAINS
TRUE TODAY. THIS IS NOT TO SUGGEST MADAM BANDARANAIKE SHOULD
BE COMPARED WITH ALICE BUT RATHER THAT POLITICAL LIFE ON
THIS ISLAND CONTINUES TO BE SOURCE OF WONDERMENT, BOTH TO
PARTICIPANTS AND OBSERVERS, AS THEY WATCH INTERPLAY BETWEEN
SIX POLITICAL PARTIES, TWO DISTINCE AND MUTUALLY DISTRUSTFUL
ETHNIC COMMUNITES, AND FOUR RELIGIOUS GROUPS, ALL INTERLARDED
WITH INTRICATE AND POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT FAMILY AND CASTE
RELATIIONSHIPS.
9. ON TOP OF THIS COMPLEX POLITICAL, ETHNIC, AND FAMILY-CASTE
MIXTURE IS 56 YEAR OLD PM BANDARANAIKE, WHO, DESPITE HER
OUTWARD CHARM AND AFFABILITY, IS SHREWD, HIGHLY PRAGMATIC
POLITICIAN, VINDICTIVE AND SKILLFUL MANIPULATOR. FIFTEEN
CABINET MEMBERS OF HER SOCIALISTIC SRI LANKA FREEDOM PARTY
(SLFP) SPAN IDEOLOGICAL SPECTRUM AND IN ADDITION SHE HAS TO
COPE WITH THREE AGING CABINET MEMBERS REPRESENTING TROTSKYITE
LANKA SAMA SAMAJA PARTY (LSSP) AND ONE SELF STYLED "HONEST
COMMUNIST" WHO REPRESENTS FACTION OF RECENTLY DIVIDED COMMU-
NIST PARTY MOSCOW (CP/M). REMARKABLE FACT ABOUT CABINET IS
THAT THIS POLITICALLY DISPARATE GROUP HAS REMAINED INTACT SINCE
UNITED FRONT CAME TO POWER ALMOST FOUR YEARS AGO DESPITE
INTERNAL RIVALRIES, APRIL 71 INSURGENCY, AND SUSTAINED ECONOMIC
DISTRESS.
10. NUMERICALLY, RIGHTISTS AND CENTRISTS CONTINUE TO OUT-NUMBER
LEFTISTS IN THREE PARTY GOVERNING COALITION BUT IN TERMS OF
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 COLOMB 00001 181036Z
INTELLIGENCE, ABILITY, AND POLITICAL SKILL, ADVANTAGE STILL
LIES WITH LEFTISTS. MRS. B MAY POSSESS CAPABILITY TO OUST LEFT-
ISTS FROM CABINET BUT SHE HAS CHOSENNOT TO DO SO, POSSIBLY
IN BELIEF RIGHTISTS, WITH THEIR POWER ENHANCED, WOULD TURN
AGAINST BANDARANAIKE FAMILY. SHE MAY ALSO FEAR THAT OUSTED
LSSP AND CP/M LEADERS AND TRADE UNIONS AFFILIATED WITH THEM
WOULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR HER GOVERNMENT, WHICH THUS FAR
HAS ESCAPED SERIOUS LABOR AGITATION. THEREFORE, RATHER THAN RISK
SHARP CONFRONTATION WITH EITHER RIGHT OR LEFT, SHE HAS
FELT CONSTRAINED TO PLAY DEFT BALANCING GAME, SHIFTING HER
POLITICAL WEIGHT AND INFLUENCE AS REQUIRED TO COUNTERACT
ATTEMPTS BY AMBITIOUS UNITED FRONT MEMBERS TO THREATEN HER
PRIMACY OR TO PROMOTE POLICIES SHE DISLIKES. ALTHOUGH UNABLE
EXERT STRONG AND COHERENT POLICY DIRECTION, SHE HAS DEMON-
STRATED REMARKABLE FINESSE IN HER BALANCING EFFORTS. TODAY,
THERE IS NO ONE WHO SERIOUSLY CHALLENGES HER LEADERSHIP.
VAN HOLLEN
CONFIDENTIAL
END OF DOCUMENT
 Prime Minister Bandaranayake maintains undisputed leadership Sri Lanka's present ...){kind=link}