| by Upul Joshep Fernando
( January 30, 2013, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Rahul Gandhi was recently appointed to lead the 2014 Congress Party election campaign. In his roadmap for victory, Tamil Nadu plays a pivotal role. It is a must win state for the Congress Party to consolidate its power in the centre.
As winning Tamil Nadu tops his election agenda for 2014, Rahul has already had discussions with Vijay, the 'Kollywood' super star. He has also reportedly made contact with popular actor turned politician in Tamil Nadu, Vijayakant. This gives credence to the rumour that a Congress alliance with regional electoral movers and shakers in Tamil Nadu is in the offing.
The Vijay and Vijayakant duo has been in the forefront of protest movement against Sri Lanka, fighting for the Tamil cause for quite some time now. It was Vijaykant who agitated for a boycott of 2009 central government elections by Tamil Nadu parties as a mark of respect for Tamil people who lost their life in the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. Vijay too was a strong voice during the latter stage of war, condemning Sri Lanka's all out military offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He was also a main speaker at the rallies organized by Tamil Nadu fishermen to protest against the alleged unfair treatment meted out to them by the Sri Lankan security forces after the war. At one such rally Vijay declared, "Sri Lanka should be wiped off the world map if the Sri Lankan Navy continues attacking South Indian fishermen. I was raised on Tiger's milk. I will fight for the rights of the Tamil people".
Tamil Nadu electorate
It will be interesting to watch how South Indian sympathy for Sri Lankan Tamils will affect Rahul Gandhi, in his quest for the support of the Tamil Nadu electorate. Rajiv Gandhi was compelled to sign the Indo-Lanka accord due to a very special reason, which had direct political relevance to him at that time.
Indian intelligence agencies had reported to him that the Congress Party was steadily losing electoral support in Tamil Nadu; so he decided to play a hero's role among India's Tamil community by openly supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil's cause. This led him to sign the Indo-Lanka accord. But, as it turned out, it was not enough to make him Tamil Nadu's hero; because Prabhakaran threw a spanner into the works by declaring war against the Indian peace-keeping forces deployed here as required by the accord signed with the government. Tamil Nadu people were not convinced of Rajiv Gandhi's bona fides of trying to help their brethren on the other side of Palk Strait. For this reason and also the sudden demise of MGR, the former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Rajiv was unable to win electoral support in Tamil Nadu.
Be that as it may, in the 1991 Indian General Election, Rajiv banked heavily on the Tamil Nadu electorate to support the Congress Party. Notwithstanding any setbacks till then, he set about mending fence with the LTTE. It was in this backdrop that Rajiv agreed to meet with Kasi Anandan, an avid supporter of Prabhakaran. Rajiv's message to Prabhakaran delivered through Kasi Anandan was that he was contemplating a change of policy as regards the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka, in a manner more conducive to the realization of the Tamil people's aspirations. In light of these developments it has become immensely obvious that Rajiv was planning to use the Sri Lankan Tamil problem in a big way in the 1991 election campaign.
Since Rajiv's demise
In the State and Centre elections, since Rajiv's demise until now, Rahul Gandhi did not display any overwhelming support for the Tamil's cause as a significant factor in the electoral prospects of the Congress Party. At a 2009 General Election rally, he referred to it in a mostly tangential manner, as follows: "Sri Lankan Tamil civilians will have to be given their due political rights and the party will stand by the Tamil people". At the same time he had reminded the South Indian Tamil community that it was Prabhakaran who killed his father and that he was only supportive of the Tamil cause and not the LTTE.
In the 2011 Tamil Nadu State elections Rahul Gandhi in a sort of testing of the waters, got directly involved in propaganda work for the Congress Party. But he did not factor the Sri Lankan Tamil issue with much import. Referring to it in passing at election rallies, he guardedly said that the "Sri Lankan Government is not doing enough for the Tamils" and that he would "take up the matter with appropriate persons at the Centre and see Sri Lankan Tamils got justice".
His popularity test in Tami Nadu crashed with the Congress Party's heavy loss in the state election. The common belief among LTTE sympathizers was that the Congress' loss was due to its support for the Sri Lankan Government during the war, and the low priority attached to Tamils grievances, by the Congress. Political analysts subscribe to the view Rahul failed to mobilize Tamil Nadu electoral support to the Congress Party because he did not correctly read the importance of supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil cause to win elections there, as his father and grandmother correctly did.
Now that Rahul Gandhi has been put in charge of the 2014 elections, it remains to be seen whether he is going to use the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka as his main platform to mobilize electoral support in Tamil Nadu.
Rajapaksa Government
If he does so, the Rajapaksa Government here will feel the heat emanating from the South Indian state. The government's wishful thinking that India will remain aloof from using the Tamil problem as an election issue in Tamil Nadu due to Rajiv's assassination, may after all, not hold water at this stage.
It has now come to light that the Rajapaksa Government, courtesy some Indian business people operating in Sri Lanka, has built up close relations with the Gandhi family. The grapevine has it that the Rajapaksa Government has won over Gandhi family support by cultivating and extending generous trading benefits to powerful Indian businessmen closely connected to Robert Vadra, Priyanka Gandhi's husband
There is also a view expressed in the same quarters that it was Priyanka who influenced India's change in attitude since 2008; as one that was unfavourable to the LTTE, notably after meeting Nalini who is in prison for the murder of Rajiv.
Of utmost interest here is that, on the balance, Tamil Nadu voters' ability to influence the Indian Government's attitude towards Sri Lanka is far too powerful than that of Vadra's business partners and power mongers.
Rahul Gandhi must have been privy to this reality at least since the 2011 Tamil Nadu election defeat of the Congress Party, which the Indian media labelled as failed 'Gandhi magic'. He will need, this time around, a new magic wand; one which can deliver him votes.
Another looming threat insidiously gaining ground is the not too far-fetched idea of Jayalalitha staking a claim to the Indian Premiership as a common candidate of a common front. It would not be surprising at all if Rahul decides to carry the vote-winning magic wand of the Sri Lankan Tamil problem in his foray into the Tamil Nadu electorate; which could cause the political hot seats here to get very much hotter.
( The writer is a senior journalist who works for the Ceylon Today, where this piece was originally appeared)
( January 30, 2013, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Rahul Gandhi was recently appointed to lead the 2014 Congress Party election campaign. In his roadmap for victory, Tamil Nadu plays a pivotal role. It is a must win state for the Congress Party to consolidate its power in the centre.
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Indian intelligence agencies had reported to Rajiv Gandhi that the Congress Party was steadily losing electoral support in Tamil Nadu; so he decided to play a hero's role among India's Tamil community by openly supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil's cause. This led him to sign the Indo-Lanka accord.
The Vijay and Vijayakant duo has been in the forefront of protest movement against Sri Lanka, fighting for the Tamil cause for quite some time now. It was Vijaykant who agitated for a boycott of 2009 central government elections by Tamil Nadu parties as a mark of respect for Tamil people who lost their life in the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. Vijay too was a strong voice during the latter stage of war, condemning Sri Lanka's all out military offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He was also a main speaker at the rallies organized by Tamil Nadu fishermen to protest against the alleged unfair treatment meted out to them by the Sri Lankan security forces after the war. At one such rally Vijay declared, "Sri Lanka should be wiped off the world map if the Sri Lankan Navy continues attacking South Indian fishermen. I was raised on Tiger's milk. I will fight for the rights of the Tamil people".
Tamil Nadu electorate
It will be interesting to watch how South Indian sympathy for Sri Lankan Tamils will affect Rahul Gandhi, in his quest for the support of the Tamil Nadu electorate. Rajiv Gandhi was compelled to sign the Indo-Lanka accord due to a very special reason, which had direct political relevance to him at that time.
Indian intelligence agencies had reported to him that the Congress Party was steadily losing electoral support in Tamil Nadu; so he decided to play a hero's role among India's Tamil community by openly supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil's cause. This led him to sign the Indo-Lanka accord. But, as it turned out, it was not enough to make him Tamil Nadu's hero; because Prabhakaran threw a spanner into the works by declaring war against the Indian peace-keeping forces deployed here as required by the accord signed with the government. Tamil Nadu people were not convinced of Rajiv Gandhi's bona fides of trying to help their brethren on the other side of Palk Strait. For this reason and also the sudden demise of MGR, the former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Rajiv was unable to win electoral support in Tamil Nadu.
Be that as it may, in the 1991 Indian General Election, Rajiv banked heavily on the Tamil Nadu electorate to support the Congress Party. Notwithstanding any setbacks till then, he set about mending fence with the LTTE. It was in this backdrop that Rajiv agreed to meet with Kasi Anandan, an avid supporter of Prabhakaran. Rajiv's message to Prabhakaran delivered through Kasi Anandan was that he was contemplating a change of policy as regards the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka, in a manner more conducive to the realization of the Tamil people's aspirations. In light of these developments it has become immensely obvious that Rajiv was planning to use the Sri Lankan Tamil problem in a big way in the 1991 election campaign.
Since Rajiv's demise
In the State and Centre elections, since Rajiv's demise until now, Rahul Gandhi did not display any overwhelming support for the Tamil's cause as a significant factor in the electoral prospects of the Congress Party. At a 2009 General Election rally, he referred to it in a mostly tangential manner, as follows: "Sri Lankan Tamil civilians will have to be given their due political rights and the party will stand by the Tamil people". At the same time he had reminded the South Indian Tamil community that it was Prabhakaran who killed his father and that he was only supportive of the Tamil cause and not the LTTE.
In the 2011 Tamil Nadu State elections Rahul Gandhi in a sort of testing of the waters, got directly involved in propaganda work for the Congress Party. But he did not factor the Sri Lankan Tamil issue with much import. Referring to it in passing at election rallies, he guardedly said that the "Sri Lankan Government is not doing enough for the Tamils" and that he would "take up the matter with appropriate persons at the Centre and see Sri Lankan Tamils got justice".
His popularity test in Tami Nadu crashed with the Congress Party's heavy loss in the state election. The common belief among LTTE sympathizers was that the Congress' loss was due to its support for the Sri Lankan Government during the war, and the low priority attached to Tamils grievances, by the Congress. Political analysts subscribe to the view Rahul failed to mobilize Tamil Nadu electoral support to the Congress Party because he did not correctly read the importance of supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil cause to win elections there, as his father and grandmother correctly did.
Now that Rahul Gandhi has been put in charge of the 2014 elections, it remains to be seen whether he is going to use the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka as his main platform to mobilize electoral support in Tamil Nadu.
Rajapaksa Government
If he does so, the Rajapaksa Government here will feel the heat emanating from the South Indian state. The government's wishful thinking that India will remain aloof from using the Tamil problem as an election issue in Tamil Nadu due to Rajiv's assassination, may after all, not hold water at this stage.
It has now come to light that the Rajapaksa Government, courtesy some Indian business people operating in Sri Lanka, has built up close relations with the Gandhi family. The grapevine has it that the Rajapaksa Government has won over Gandhi family support by cultivating and extending generous trading benefits to powerful Indian businessmen closely connected to Robert Vadra, Priyanka Gandhi's husband
There is also a view expressed in the same quarters that it was Priyanka who influenced India's change in attitude since 2008; as one that was unfavourable to the LTTE, notably after meeting Nalini who is in prison for the murder of Rajiv.
Of utmost interest here is that, on the balance, Tamil Nadu voters' ability to influence the Indian Government's attitude towards Sri Lanka is far too powerful than that of Vadra's business partners and power mongers.
Rahul Gandhi must have been privy to this reality at least since the 2011 Tamil Nadu election defeat of the Congress Party, which the Indian media labelled as failed 'Gandhi magic'. He will need, this time around, a new magic wand; one which can deliver him votes.
Another looming threat insidiously gaining ground is the not too far-fetched idea of Jayalalitha staking a claim to the Indian Premiership as a common candidate of a common front. It would not be surprising at all if Rahul decides to carry the vote-winning magic wand of the Sri Lankan Tamil problem in his foray into the Tamil Nadu electorate; which could cause the political hot seats here to get very much hotter.
( The writer is a senior journalist who works for the Ceylon Today, where this piece was originally appeared)
 Rahul Gandhi was recently appointed to lead the 2014 Congress...){kind=link}