| by Swadesh Roy
( January 20, 2013, Dhaka, Sri Lanka Guardian) This year is the last year of the present government’s tenure in Bangladesh. At the end of the year, government will dissolve the parliament and country will go for a general election. Spokespersons of the government are always telling, there is no uncertainty regarding the next general election. They are telling that election will be held according to the constitution of Bangladesh. But the opposition of the Bangladesh are repeatedly noticing the countrymen and the concern people of abroad, in which way government is going, it is not the way of election. In spite of that, government is making an uncertainty regarding next election. Therefore, the demand of the opposition is that, next election will be held in a neutral caretaker government. Without neutral caretaker government, they will not participate in the election. They are thinking, if they do not participate in the election, it will be impossible to make an election in Bangladesh.
In this situation, some economists and political analysts are thinking that, this year will come out a bit crucial for the economy of the country. Some of the economists are thinking that investment will be poor in this year for political unrest, so economical growth rate will fall and GDP cannot touch the expecting stature. However, they are thinking based on the political history of Bangladesh, but they are not thinking that some scenario has changed in Bangladesh. One of it is, now the private sector is a powerful stakeholder in Bangladesh economy and politics. Both economy and politics cannot ignore them. The industrialist or the owner of the private sector will not allow an intolerable political unrest if the opposition goes forward to create an intolerable political unrest in the country. Rater they will lose the support of the business sectors if they do it and that is a great deserter for them. Therefore, the opposition has to do everything, thinking their limit. They have to walk the road according to their limit.
Despite, it is true that one of the opposition parties will go to their optimum because of their existence. That very opposition party is Jamat-e-Islami. Their main leaders are now in the trail accusing for war crime; and some of their trail are supposed to be completed in this year. They are thinking that, the verdict might be come, sentence to death. Therefore, they will go out right according to their strength; but they have no enough strength to unstable the political situation of the country. So, they will try to keep the main opposition on the road with them. But, the situation tells that, main opposition will not do this. They will not go against the business stakeholders of the country. Besides, they have to follow the direction of the development partners of Bangladesh. United States of America is the one of the main development and strategic partners of Bangladesh now. The American Ambassador in Bangladesh has told that his country does not like the political program like shutdown. So, it is very tough for the opposition of Bangladesh to go a massive political unrest avoiding the development and strategic partner like America. Rather, they will think before to do anything like shutdown.
On the other hand, a huge amount of foreign investment will come to Bangladesh in this year, in garment sector and in the electricity sector. That will help for changing the scenario. Besides, now a days in Bangladesh, if any political party call a shutdown, it only implement in the city bus route. It does not hamper the train, aircrafts and water route. That not only it could not hamper the production of the industry and the irrigation but also now it runs in full swing because of uninterrupted electricity. In addition, of that, the mind set-up of the people of Bangladesh has changed. The new generation of Bangladesh does not want road agitation politics. They want now a better life. Their eyes are more open than their earlier generation. They are well informed regarding the economical and political development of the present world and the better life of the developed world.
Now a huge number of young people are involved in business, they are the young leader of the country now. They know that, Bangladesh is going to be next China in some sector. China is going to left the garment sector because of the higher wage. Therefore, it will be shifted to Bangladesh. Last two years Bangladesh is doing better in garment sector than China and India. This sector will do better in this year because of uninterrupted electricity supply. The government has produced more electricity and this year it will be produced more. That is why; many new garment factories will be open in this year. For the failure of China and India in garment sector, more buyers will come in to Bangladesh in this year. Besides some senior economists those who have a link with World Bank, they are thinking that, for this sufficient electricity, from this year, some industries may be boom; these are furniture, shoe and toy. They are thinking that, these industries are labor dense industries. Therefore, there is huge potentiality of these industries in Bangladesh. China and India have huge work force but they cannot compete with Bangladesh because in Bangladesh workers is inexpensive. In this year, a lot of investment will engaged in these sectors. Bangladesh will get market of these goods in Asia, Europe and America.
Therefore, Bangladesh is going in a new direction now. As a result, those people who are calculating the political and economical scenario based on past days, they are doing wrong. Even, the political parties of the country have to think their future politics on this ground that, Bangladesh is going to be the next China, so they have to do all the political behave on this ground; not to sit on the past days.
Swadesh Roy, Executive Editor, The Daily Janakantha, Dhaka, Bangladesh, he can be reached at swadeshroy@gmail.com
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