| by Dr. B R
Deepak
( December 27,
2012, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) In the wake of China’s mammoth economic
growth that catapulted China as the second largest economy of the world in
2010, and the military expenditure corresponding to its economy, everyone
including the Chinese is talking about China’s rise and its emergence as a
challenger to the unipolar world.
 |
Since 2007, China twice shot down its dysfunctional satellites with anti-satellite missiles thus displaying its capabilities to destroy spy satellites and space-based missile defense system of other countries, especially the US. These gestures from China has not only sent shockwaves to its neighbors, but has also challenged the US power projections.
The jargon
emphasizes the emergence of China as a “soft power” implying that China’s rise
is not a threat to its neighbors and the world as a whole, and that China seeks
to avoid conflict. According to Duan Bingren (2004:2-3 preface), the road of
peaceful rise is a major innovation of China’s developmental strategic thought.
Duan asserts that “the developmental road, China has sought, is a unique road
seeking peace and mutual benefits; this not only will harmonize the
international order, but will also enable China to uphold its independence,
social system and choice of life style. The developmental road of peaceful
rise, seeks harmony with others, partnership with China’s neighbors, and
friendly coexistence with other countries on the basis of Five Principles of
Peaceful Coexistence. Economically, it seeks integration with the
globalization, and naturally seeks China’s new role in global development
equations, thus becoming a constructive and responsible player in the
international economic activities. Politically, the notion would enable China
to actively and constructively participate in the international affairs, be a
challenger rather than a moot spectator to the events and aspire for a
democratic, peaceful and multi-polar world.” Therefore, the peaceful rise of
China is an antidote to “hegemony”, “hot war”, “cold war”, “China threat”,
“disintegration of China” etc. theories and notions; it is a promise to the
world that the rise of China is peaceful.”
However, the
lexicon ran into rough weather as the think tanks in China tried to debate the
pros and cons of the term. Many felt that the word “rise” would put its
neighbors at unease, while others argued that it is premature to talk about the
rise, as China largely remains a developing country. In the backdrop of such a
debate, China changed the term ‘rise’ to ‘development’ when it published a
white paper entitled “China’s peaceful development” in the beginning of 2006. Nevertheless,
the terminology is still being widely used in government as well as academic
circles across China.
The debate
apart, the crux is whether the “rise” or “development” of China is going to be
a smooth sail? If not what could be the dangers or challenges China would face?
While contemplating on these questions, Xin Xiangyang (2004:2-3, preface II)
posits that China would face four major external challenges: 1) Trade and
commerce (challenges from world markets, world energy resources, and trade protectionism);
2) National security (traditional security threat, number of variables in its
surrounding security environment, as well as non-traditional security issues);
3) External political challenges (disintegration and westernization of China,
the penetration of Non Government Organizations (NGOs) in China, international
terrorism and the increasingly large number of international criminal
activities); 4) The US containment of China. Besides, Xin also outlines the
following four internal challenges: 1) Population; 2) Resources and energy; 3)
Environmental degradation; and 4) Social imbalance.
It has been
widely speculated by the analysts that the priority of the fifth generation
leadership under Xi Jinping would keep a low key profile as far as China’s foreign
policy is concerned, and concentrate more on the internal challenges,
especially the challenge of social imbalance. The challenge has manifested
itself in China in various shapes and forms. Whether it is the question of food
security, rural urban divide, peasant’s protests, the issue of rural education
or migrant laborers, each and every issue is related to peasants, agriculture
and the countryside, and is capable of derailing China rise or peaceful
development. Therefore, economic
development, deepening of reforms and opening up is going to remain the top
priority of the new leadership. It not only would help China to overcome the
social imbalances but also equip it to deal with the external challenges in a
better way.
Contrarily, it
appears that of late China has shown signs of discarding the time tested
strategy of Deng Xaoping as is well explained by his maxim “hide your strength,
bide your time.’ Ever since the middle of the first decade of this century,
especially the successful convocation of the Olympic Games in 2008, China
started to take maximalist positions vis-à-vis conflicts with the neighboring
countries, be it the Diaoyu/Senkaku row with Japan in the East China Sea, or
with Vietnam, Philippines and other smaller disputing countries in the South
China Sea, or its dispute with South Asian neighbors. As China has started to define South China
Sea as an area of core interest in addition to Taiwan and Tibet, it has taken
the disputes to new stages by way of sending unmanned surveillance plane over
disputed Diaoyu; standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal; Chinese
fishing vessels cutting the cables of Vietnamese Oil & Gas Group seismic
ship in Vietnam controlled waters; announcing new rules for the region that
authorize its police in the southern province of Hainan to board and seize
foreign ships in the South China Sea; raising threats of conflict by
establishing Sansha on Yongxing Island in the southernmost province of Hainan;
threats to disrupt ONGC Videsh exploration in South China Sea and reiterating
China’s ‘indisputable sovereignty’ in the region; initiating a new passport
design containing a map claiming the South China Sea and disputed areas along
the Sino-Indian border; and even flexing economic muscle against the smaller neighbors
in the region by banning their exports on flimsy grounds.
Besides, since
China’s economy has grown with a neck breaking speed all these years, its
military spending has also increased manifolds. For example a decade back, it
only spent around 20 billion USD on defense, the same has increased around five
times in recent years. Last year when the US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates
met Hu Jintao in Beijing, China showcased its new fighter jet, the J-20 in
Chengdu, Sichuan. China has also showcased its own drones that resemble the US
Predator and Global Hawk. The US suspects Iran for giving China access to the
US drone that was shot down by Iran within its territory. If people’s
Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has showcased its new assets, the People’s
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has also commissioned its first aircraft carrier,
Liaoning earlier in September this year. Two months later China landed J-15 on
the Liaoning. Analysts believe that the aircraft carrier will allow Beijing to
help project its military might in territorial disputes. China has also
aggressively furthered its space program. Since 2007, China twice shot down its
dysfunctional satellites with anti-satellite missiles thus displaying its
capabilities to destroy spy satellites and space-based missile defense system
of other countries, especially the US. These gestures from China has not only
sent shockwaves to its neighbors, but has also challenged the US power
projections.
It is in this
context that the US ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalancing’ toward Asia should be seen. It is
also in the light of above that smaller neighbors of China are increasingly
looking at the US for countervailing China. Even countries like Philippines and
Vietnam that have suffered the aggression from Japanese and the US are willing
to forge closer ties with these countries. It is for the very reason that ASEAN
countries are taking common and united position on the disputes in South China
Sea, but they are equally aware of the fact that even if united it is still impossible
to confront China.
Therefore, even
if China frantically defends it ‘rise’ or ‘development’ as peaceful, the ‘China
threat’ has once again raised its head to the discomfort of every party. The situation may be changed to better once
Xi Jinping takes charge of the party and military, as in recent pronouncements
we have seen him showing difference. For example, in his interaction with
foreign experts in China on December 5th, he seems to have reiterated the
essence of China’s peaceful development. He said China will not seek hegemony
or expansionism and continue to open to the outside world. He also pronounced
that China’s peaceful development does not seek selfish interests, and benefits
by harming others, it seeks mutual benefits. Again between December 7 and 11,
2012 while touring southern China, he reiterated that ‘reforms and opening up
is unstoppable.’ I believe this doesn’t prove to be a mere rhetoric as has been
the case in recent times. China being a developing country still needs Deng’s
wisdom as regards the disputes relating to sovereignty. China has resorted to
military means to solve its disputes or exert sovereignty several times, if
that happens again, the long-term goals of China, especially attaining the
level of a moderately developed country by the middle of this century would be
seriously subverted, and the fruits of being a beneficiary of globalization
lost for a few reefs and rocks here and there.
References:
Duan Binren (2004). “破解世界性、世纪性课题” (Topic of this
century and of worldwide importance). Guo Wanchao (2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of
China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation) Jiangxi People’s Publishing
House, Nanchang.
Guo Wanchao (2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of
China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation) Jiangxi People’s Publishing
House, Nanchang.
Hu Jintao (2003). “胡锦涛在纪念毛泽东同志诞辰110周年座谈会 上的讲话” (Hu Jintao's
Speech at the 110th birth anniversary of Mao Zedong” in Liberation
Daily, December 27, 2003.
Xin Xiangyang (2004). “大视野中的中国崛起” (Grand vision
of China’s Rise). Guo Wanchao (2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of
China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation) Jiangxi People’s Publishing
House, Nanchang.
(Dr. B R Deepak
is Professor of Chinese and China Studies in Jawaharlal Nehru University,
India. The views expressed are his own. He could be reached at
bdeepak@mail.jnu.ac.in)
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