| by B.Raman
( October 28, 2012, Chennai, Sri Lanka
Guardian) I would like to make the following points regarding the Cabinet
reshuffle carried out by the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on October
28,2012.
The widespread
expectations by many, including me, that the reshuffle would have the stamp of
Shri Rahul Gandhi have been belied. The reshuffle has the hotch-potch stamp of
Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. It is a play-it-safe reshuffle to carry
on the governance without any major political problems till the 2014 elections
to the Lok Sabha.
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Will this Cabinet, which is expected to fight the coming elections to the Loh Sabha, be able to avert a defeat in the elections? I will not be surprised if it does.
Not only
Dr.Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, but even Shri Rahul Gandhi and his young aides
have chosen to play it safe lest Shri Rahul Gandhi fall flat on his face as he
did after the elections to the UP State
Assembly earlier this year. Once bitten twice shy. That has been the attitude
of Rahul. He is still politically
diffident and does not want to project himself in the forefront till the
political situation turns in his favour. Public perception is still not in his favour.
The most
surprising element in the reshuffle is the elevation of Shri Salman Khurshid as
the Minister for External Affairs. Shri Khurshid is a gifted individual and
Minister who had done well in whatever responsibility was entrusted to him in
the past, but he had recently got involved in an embarrassing controversy due
to allegations of misuse of funds sanctioned for the welfare of physically
disadvantaged people by a Trust with which he and his wife are associated. He
and his wife handled the allegations in
a press conference in a shockingly petulant and insensitive manner.
His behaviour
definitely created considerable embarrassment for the Government and a negative
percepton of him even among those well disposed to him. One would have,
therefore, felt that Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi would have played it safe by not
giving him a prominent portfolio. Their action in giving him the prized
portfolio of External Affairs can be explained only from the point of view of a
convergence of the interest of both Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi in having him in
that portfolio.
Since he became
the Prime Minister in 2004, Dr.Singh has been playing an activist role in
foreign policy matters whether it be in respect of closer strategic partnership
with the US or a thaw in the relations with Pakistan despite the 26/11
terrorist strikes in Mumbai or co-operative relationship with China despite the
continuing border dispute.
He chose Shri
S.M.Krishna as the EAM because of the confidence that Shri Krishna would let
him play that activist role without any friction and that the two would be on
the same wavelength on important foreign policy issues. Shri Krishna totally
went along with Dr.Singh in all these matters. Dr.Singh has similar confidence
in Shri Khurshid.
In the case of
Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, it is not so much her
confidence in his foreign policy expertise as her gratitude to him for standing
by her in public as the Law Minister in the controversy relating to the
allegations of wrong-doing made against Shri Robert Vadra, her son-in-law, by India Against Corruption (IAC) led by
Shri Arvind Kejriwal that has played a role for her backing to his elevation.
It must be remembered that on the day the IOC publicly made the allegations
against Shri Vadra there was total panic in the Congress Party and in the
entourage of Mrs.Gandhi.
Shri Khurshid
stood in the forefront of the Ministers who openly defended Shri Vadra. It
would not be wrong to say that his fierce defence of Shri Vadra and his open
proclamation of his loyalty to Mrs.Gandhi added to the venom of the IOC against
him. Mrs. Gandhi has thus reasons to be grateful to Shri Khurshid for diverting the fire away from her
and Shri Vadra. These two factors have definitely played an important role in
his elevation in total disregard of the public perception against him.
Will this
Cabinet, which is expected to fight the coming elections to the Loh Sabha, be
able to avert a defeat in the elections? I will not be surprised if it does.
The BJP has been thinking that the allegations of corruption against the
Congress alone will bring it down. The history of our elections since 1950 show
that allegations of corruption, however serious, are not crucial in determining
the outcome. Despite the Bofors controversy, the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi
did not do that badly in the 1989 polls even though it failed to secure a
majority. The Congress was back in power within two years. All the allegations
of corruption and Emergency excesses made against Mrs.Indira Gandhi could not
prevent her return to power with a huge majority in 1980.
Relentless
demonization of political opponents has played a crucial role only in the
elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly .Otherwise, the impact of a demonization
campaign is generally marginal as we have been seeing repeatedly in Gujarat and
in the elections to the Lok Sabha. If the BJP wants to profit from the existing
mood against the Congress, it has to project before the people an alternative
policy framework. Instead of doing so, it seems to be thinking that it can rout
the Congress by harping on the issue of corruption and by demonising the Sonia
Gandhi family. It may not work.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For
China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Twitter @SORBONNE75)
 I would like to make the following points regarding the Cabinet res...){kind=link}