| by B.Raman
( October 24,
2012, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The misgivings entertained till now in the
West regarding the advisability of doing business as usual with Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of
Gujarat, are showing signs of subsiding.
2.That is the
message that comes out loud and clear from the visit of Mr.James Bevan, the
British High Commissioner to India, to Gujarat on October 22,2012. Till now,
the UK was following in the footsteps of other European Union countries in
avoiding any governmental, including diplomatic, interaction with the Government
of Gujarat in general and Shri Modi in particular. This policy of avoidance of
interaction was a sequel to the widespread communal riots in Gujarat in 2002
and the deaths of three Muslims of British origin in the State during the
riots. This policy of avoidance of Governmental interactions did not, however,
stand in the way of British investors---of Gujarati as well as non-Gujarati
origin---investing in Gujarat.
3. The decision
to end the policy of avoidance of Governmental interactions was announced by
Mr.Hugo Swire, a Minister in the British Foreign Office, some weeks ago. While
announcing the decision, he said: “ This will allow us to discuss a wide range
of issues of mutual interest in Gujarat. We want to secure justice for the
families of the British nationals who were killed in 2002.” It was in pursuance
of this announcement that Mr.Bevan visited Gujarat.
4. Among those
he reportedly met during his visit were Shri Modi himself, Ms. Kamala Beniwal,
the Governor of the State, and Mr.Arjun Modhvadia, the President of the State
Congress. Reading between the lines of the statements and observations of
Mr.Bevan, two significant points are evident.
5.Firstly, the
UK continues to attach importance to the question of human rights in Gujarat.
Secondly, it decided to resume interactions with Shri Modi and other members of
the Gujarat Government because it sees no reason to blame Shri Modi personally
for the violations in 2002. The British move is a clear indication that the
British Government no longer feels that alleged sins of commission and omission
of Shri Modi contributed to the massacre of the Muslims in 2002, as alleged by
his detractors.
6. Sections of
the Muslim community of sub-continental origin in the UK have strongly
protested against the British decision. It is significant that the British High
Commissioner went ahead with his visit to Gujarat despite these protests. This
shows that the British Government took its decision after a careful
consideration of its implications and there is little likelihood of its
reversing the decision under pressure from its Muslim community.
7.Mr.Bevan has
also been quoted as saying that the British Government took the decision on its
own without prior consultation with the
Governments of other EU countries. There is an element of surprise that
Mr.Bevan undertook the visit during the current election campaign in Gujarat,
but he did not seem to be worried that this could be politically misinterpreted
in India.
8.The only other
EU country which has officially commented on the British decision is Germany.
Its officials have been quoted as saying that Germany would wait till the
elections to the Gujarat Assembly are over before examining the matter.
9.It is likely
that after the State elections, other EU countries may follow the British
example. The ultimate attitude of the US is not yet clear.
10. If the
British decision is followed by other EU countries, it will pave the way for
the end of the diplomatic avoidance of Shri Modi followed by the EU countries
since 2002. If the US also joins, it could lead to a collateral strengthening
of the Prime Ministerial claims of Shri Modi.
11. While Shri
Modi has a very good record as the Chief Minister, what stands in the way of
his prime ministerial aspirations is his image as non-secular among political
elements outside Gujarat and the diplomatic avoidance by the Western countries.
12.With the
seeming beginning of the end of the policy of diplomatic avoidance, only the
mental reservations still in India outside Gujarat about his credentials as a
pan-Indian and all-community leader will stand in the way of his aspirations.
But if the BJP, under his leadership, fights the next elections to the Lok
Sabha unitedly and scores a significant victory, it may be difficult for other
political formations in the NDA coalition to oppose the acceptance of Shri Modi
as the post-2014 P.M.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For
China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Twitter @SORBONNE75)
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