| by B.Raman
( September 26, 2012, Chennai,
Sri Lanka Guardian) Al Qaeda in North Waziristan, Al Qaeda in the Arab
Peninsula (AQAP), the NeoTaliban of Afghanistan and the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) have been closely following the presidential election campaign
in the US. While they have kept up their rhetoric against President Barack
Obama, they are not yet clear in their mind whether it would be in their
interest to work for the defeat of
Mr.Obama by stepping up acts of terrorism in the Af-Pak region and in the
Iraq-Syria-Libya region.
 |
| AFP PHOTO/Barbara Sax) |
2. There is a high level of anger
against Mr.Obama in all these organisations. This is due to his intensification
of the Drone strikes against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Waziristan area
after coming into office, the killing of Osama bin Laden in a special operation
at Abbottabad on May 1 / 2,2011, the killing of Abu Yahya al-Libi, the
religious mentor of Al Qaeda, who was a Libyan religious cleric, in a Drone
strike in Waziristan on June 4 last, the death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the Amir of
AQAP, who was a US citizen of Yemeni origin, in a Drone strike in Yemen in
September last year, and the US refusal to take action against the producer of
the anti-Islam film that has triggered a wave of demonstrations, some of them
violent, by Muslims in different countries.
3. The strong dislike of Al Qaeda
for Mr.Obama was evident from two recent messages of Al Qaeda. A video message
of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Amir of Al Qaeda, released on September 10,2012,
described Mr.Obama as a liar who was elected to "trick" Muslims
around the world, but who nevertheless is "being defeated in
Afghanistan".
4. A statement circulated by the
AQAP after the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya on September
11,2012, that led to the death of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other US
nationals said: “The killing of Sheikh Abu Yahya only increased the enthusiasm
and determination of the sons of (Libyan independence hero) Omar al-Mukhtar to
take revenge upon those who attack our Prophet. The uprising of our people in
Libya, Egypt and Yemen against America and its embassies is a sign to notify
the United States that its war is not directed against groups and
organisations... but against the Islamic nation that has rebelled against
injustice." It called for more violent demonstrations against US embassies
in the Middle East and Africa, and urged Muslims in the West to attack American
interests in their countries of residence. "May the expulsion of embassies
and consulates lead to the liberation of Arab lands from the American hegemony
and the arrogance," the statement
said. The AQAP is led by Nasser al-Wahishi.
5. There has been an increase in
anti-Obama and anti-US rhetoric from the Neo-Taliban of Afghanistan and the TTP
too. They have called for protests against the US film and have stepped up
anti-US demonstrations and acts of violence in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
At the same time, they are confused whether it would be in their interest for
Mr.Obama to be defeated in his bid for re-election. Though they may intensely
dislike him, they are not sure of what
would be the policy of Mr. Mitt Romney in matters like intensified Drone
strikes, thinning out of the US military presence in Afghanistan and not
opposing a role for the moderate elements of the Neo-Taliban in any future
political dispensation in Kabul.
6. For them, Mr.Romney is an
unknown and unpredictable element in their objective of securing the withdrawal
of the US troops from Afghanistan. The US has already completed the withdrawal
of the additional troops inducted into Afghanistan under the surge ordered by
Mr.Obama after he came to office. They have reasons to hope that if Mr.Obama is
re-elected he may continue the further thinning out of the US troops which
could prove to be advantageous to the Talibans and Al Qaeda.
7. In the case of the AQAP too,
which controls Al Qaeda operations in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Syria,
Mr.Obama’s policy of regime change with US-sponsored external interventions has
proved beneficial and helped them to strengthen their foothold in these areas.
Their only worry is whether Mr.Obama, if re-elected, would step up attacks on
AQAP as he had stepped up attacks against AQ in the Af-Pak region after coming
to office in 2009.
8.While calling for an
intensification of anti-US activities, these organisations have been avoiding
any disproportionate acts of reprisal against US nationals and interests that
might turn US public opinion against Mr.Obama. It is likely as of now that
while maintaining the anti-Obama rhetoric and the present levels of
demonstrations and violence, they would avoid actions that could aggravate
anti-Obama voter anger in the US.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For
China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Twitter @SORBONNE75)
 Al Qaeda in North Waziristan, Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP...){kind=link}