Assad’s grip on power is crumbling in Syria - Part 02

| by Dr Rifai

( August 22, 2012, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Blood thirsty Assad’ military force with its full strength and power has been killing innocent children, women, young and elderly people without any discrimination. This is unprecedented in Syrian history. Of course Syria has witnessed many massacres and genocides in the past and yet, this time it is unmatched in its history. Without any human remorse or sympathy Assad’s force uses its all military power to crush his political opponents. As we mentioned in the first part of this article, there are some historical and sectarian factors contributed to such hostile action against Sunni population. Alawite dominated army do not have any sympathy or remorse in killing of Non-Alawite Sunni people in Syria. Ironically more than 80% of Syrian army comes from Alawite sect and more important all high ranking army, Navy, and Air force officials are from Alawite sect and though some Sunni army Generals and officials defected from Syrian army and joined hand in hand with Free Syrian Army yet, the commanding structure of Syrian army is in tact and is operating with its full force with support of arms gained from Iran and Russia.

The trajectory of this ruthless war is many folds. This war is sandwiched in between contrasting political, ideological and regional powers. That makes this war more complicated and more elastic. One hand American and its allies want to find a peaceful resolution to this problem but Russia and China do not want to see American domination on this issue and for their geo-political interest they have used their veto power in blocking international military intervention in this war. Ironically, the political hypocrisy of western power is that it waited more than one year until now to act swiftly. The failure of Western powers to take necessary measures to stop blood bath in Syria justifies this political hypocrisy. During the Libyan conflict all these western powers provided some technical and military support to anti- Gaddafi forces to topple him. And yet, Syria has not got Oil for Western politicians to intervene in this ruthless war that has already killed more than 20000 people and displaced more than 2.million people. What a political hypocrisy and double standard is this? This is the so called modern civilised world today we live in?

The so called Veto power was instituted soon as ww2. This Veto power is vested in the hands of five countries to protect the interest of those five nations at the expense of other third world country. For the last sixty years this veto power has been misused many times at the expense of poor countries in time of conflict. Two contrasting ideological and political blocks control this veto power and hence, viable application of veto power is always not possible. Take for instance, the case of Syrian conflict more than 140 countries voted in favour of Syrian resolution in UN and yet, China and Russia vetoed against it. What an ironic power is this veto power and how many millions of people might have been killed because of this Veto power or misuse of Veto power. Do we need such mocking system in this modern world? Many scholars and intellectuals in the West and East have been calling for reformation of United Nations: It is high time that International community and particularly human right communions demand for the reformation of UN before more and more blood is shed in many part of world.

The second trajectory of Syrian conflict is that on one hand Iran strongly support this brutal Assad’ murderous Government. It is reported that Iranian Militants are working in Syrian and helping Syrian force. Iran provides arms and ammunition for this war. To counter this Iranian infiltration, Saudi, Turkish, Qatari and some western countries are providing some logistics and financial support and yet, there is no any external military intervention has been materialised and for that reason it is predicated this Syrian conflict will go on for many months if not for many years. This means that more people will be killed and more people will be displaced. The country will descend into total destruction and collapse. Moreover, it is argued that this war may spill over to Lebanon as well. Some argues that this is proxy war between Shia and Sunni. It is argued that Lebanon with its Shia majority in parliament supports Assad in Syria as well. In this way, this war could generate regional conflict.

Some people argue that Assad’s days are numbered and with matters of weeks if not days he will meet his doom days: why do they say that? These people argue that Syria is dominated predominantly by Sunni people and unlike in the past in this modern world it is impossible that minority Alawite rules over this Sunni population for ever. They further argue that Assad is politically weak today in the country and he does not have popular support and some of his ministers are already defected for FSA. Moreover, International sanction on this country has economically damaged the country. Internationally Syria has been isolated today than ever before. Syrian diplomats in some countries have already defected and Arab countries have already removed Syria from its Arab Union. They further contend that Assad only controls 30% of the country today and 70% of the country is controlled by FSA. Moreover, the majority of people are with FSA. Iran’s meddling in Syrian affairs could not go for ever. Because Syrian dominated by Sunnis. No doubt such assumptions are viable and Assad may lose his power sooner of later.

Even Assad could hold on for sometimes, FSA could go for Gorilla warfare and it would be very difficult to suppress such type of warfare. Moreover, after all this blood bath, No Sunni would support this brutal regime? On the other hand some people argue that with help of Iran and Russia Assad could go on for sometimes. They predict that Assad could go to Latakia province. This province is dominated predominately by Alawite tribes. They could protect him and he could try to create autonomy in that part of Syria with help of Iran: such eventuality is predicated by some people. Why do they say this? Because Syria today got one of strongest Arab army and most of them are from Alawite and it would be difficult to dismantle them all unless there is international intervention takes place from some western nations. What is more worrying is that some Sunni people too support Assad.

Some of them support him by compulsion otherwise, they will be killed. Some of them support him in the pretext of wrong perceptions. Some argue that Assad ruling would be better rather than creating political chaos and destruction in the country. This argument does not have any credibility at all. The majority people have been suffering for the last 40 years and how long this political despotism could go on? All these factors give him more time to cling on his power. Yet, I think given the nature of this struggle his days are numbered and he shall meet his doom day sooner.

This Syrian war begs one more question about Muslim world today. That question is all about inability of Muslim world to act in times of emergency in any part of world: powerlessness of our political leaders is so vivid in recent conflicts in many parts of Muslim world but there is a good tiding as well. Thanks to Arab springs all over Arab world people are awaken up from long slumber.