EDITORIAL: Is Sri Lanka on the threshold of an imminent change?

| by I. S. Senguttuvan

( May 21, 2012, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The expected release of General Sarath Fonseka fuels a great deal of debate and discussion. A fumbling regime, self-inflicted to be on the defence on most issues, stridently claims the Fonseka release is, to use a term in vogue, “a home-grown solution” Those on the other side of the divide are convinced it is more due to pressure both from Washington and India – the current enfant terrible of the Rajapakse Brothers. Leaving the nuances and arguments aside, the release of Fonseka is one of the few welcome decisions of Mahinda Rajapakse in recent times – and, that is not bad, for a man under attack on many fronts, if you will.

Sarath Fonseka will leave his captives as a much greater hero than when he was crudely and illegally taken in on the footsteps of a General Election which many claim he won. He honourably resisted many requests and inspired-messages to seek Presidential pardon. He insisted he had done nothing wrong to President Rajapakse to warrant his imposed fate. An uncompromising hero caring tuppence for his own comforts or life is what he will be seen by the Sinhala South. In a political landscape creeping with unprincipled worms – blue, green, red and what have you – that is a claim few in the contaminated system can make. Despite his many short-comings his principled stand will remain hard to beat for a long time.

Now that the Rajapakses failed in their fond wish to see him dead in jail, they certainly can be expected not to relent in the many conspiracies mapped out how they are going to deal with him once he is out. A former Presidential candidate and War Hero described by Indian leaders as “one of the finest Generals” appealing to Courts to provide him with a simple thing as an Electric Fan is not going to enhance the claims of the Rajapakses sense of fair-play. It is safe to assume Fonseka will not surrender his political ambitions to gradually fade into a life of inner hermitic peace and tranquility – the Lankan Buddhist way. A man, borne of his known mental-makeup has, in the unfamiliar words of Robert Frost “many miles to go before I sleep” Can’t blame the guy. Being a military man it is nothing but natural to hound out your real and perceived enemies. In Fonseka’s case it is safe to assume his list will be long – pretty long.

He finds himself in the cross-roads of history as JRJ in 1973-1977. The same journey when Charles de Gaulle made from Colombey-les-deux-Eglises in 1958 to the Champs d’Elysses to unite and save a crumbling, politically unstable France. The weary French Nation gave him 9.2% of their votes

in the Referendum de Gaulle insisted on. France regained its glory and political stability for some decades since then. Drawing a lesson locally, many of us still remember the massive landslide Mrs B’s Coalition secured in 1970 - crushing Dudley Senanayake’s performing government - with the “Rice from the Moon” deception. She was thereafter to be ingloriously dumped in 1977. The Rajapakses will not forget the short-memoried Lankan voter is also not a particularly consistent or grateful one.

It will be in Fonseka’s interest to have within his reach a group of senior economists, lawyers, political scientists, senior politicians, administrators, foreign-policy persons and the like to help formulate policies to run an alternative government based strictly on the foundations of the established law. Fonseka himself has made mistakes in bad tender purchases benefitting his family that has cost him dear so far. The message must be clear to him when you depart from the norm you are bound to be hounded for the lapse both by friend and foe – simply because what was done was patently wrong.

The much offended system left to us by the British, after all, has its own safety valves – often violated by design - to our detriment.

Fonseka needs much to do in repairing the wrong done to political leaders in the region. It is easy to irresponsibly say “Tamilnadu jokers” and win the applause of the local yakkos. But the fact is out there in the world are many who have the clout and the means to make things uncomfortable for you, as Fonseka realized when he tried to soft-peddle the issue later. Fonseka is unlikely to make the mistake the Rajapakse regime committed in taking India for granted before the Geneve HR Resolutions in March.

It is to avoid this he must gather close to him professionals endowed with a sound knowledge of diplomacy in them. Sycophants and grinning "Yes" men will not do here.

One of the most sensitive area to handle will be the Army – now suffering divided loyalties below the surface. It is no different in the Police, the Navy and the Air Force – all highly politicised with opportunists dislodging the able – creating unprecedented confusion.

The raw truth is the country remains mortally wounded in all of its vital areas – Police/Law and Order, Justice, Health, Education. In most cases square holes are placed in round holes. The Foreign Ministry, under the influence of a regime-favourite - said to be a convict for fraud - is one glaring example of how a Ministry should not be run.

Needless to say, the National Question will be Fonseka's litmus test.

Fortunately for him, there is now greater space now – even within those sources identified as Sinhala supremacists – for a permanent and sustained settlement with the Tamils. If he chooses out to settle the issue he will see that India, the USA, Britain, E/U, Japan, China and all our friends will provide him with all the necessary assistance and support to reunite the once tranquilcountry.

There is little doubt if country-wide General Elections are called today any Coalition that Sarath Fonseka leads will get an overwhelming majority. This in spite of the many sophisticated acts of skullduggery the regime is surely expected to engage in. That is, to the Rajapakses reget, the legacy they have created in the past six years. The cause for this is multi-fold. Leading the list will be the galloping inflation which the President nor his chosen economic czars of proven poor ability have been able to find solutions. The Stock Market, which the regime’s propagandists glibly claimed as the Miracle of Asia, is more closed than open and is probably the laughing stock of South Asia’s Stock-markets. Even a fraction of the the FDI’s forecast never saw the light of day. The Colombo Stock market sees its activity merely in existing stocks changing hands – and that too among a few entreprenauers or groups linked to the government. Unfortunately Raj Rajaratnam, who provided much of the stimulus in the Colombo Stock Market for years, is now in a US jail. At least one leading politico here is richer by several millions of dollars Rajaratnam transferred for investing. The matter is now in Courts. Events such as this certainly do not inspire confidence either in our Stock Market or on those occupying the front line of our political and economic life.

But, by jove, Mahinda Rajapakse or his brothers will fight to the last any attempt to dislodge them. After all, they have done “much work” to subvert the system in every sordid way to ensure a long relay of succession to ensure Rajapakse familial rule at least for the next two decades. So in many ways Fonseka may be entering his own Third War Vs the Brothers Rajapakse.