Death toll claim climbs from ‘Zero’ to over ‘100,000’

President of Sri Lanka said after the war: The forces pursued a "humanitarian rescue operation" with a policy of "zero civilian casualties".

The UN initially said: ‘7,000 civilians were killed’.

 Channel 4’s initial claim: 20,000 civilians died in the final few months of the Government-led military campaign to crush the Tamil Tigers.

UN Expert Panel Report said: Tens of thousands were killed.

President’s brother Gotabaya Rajapakse: ‘Estimated the number of LTTE cadres who died in battle to be close to 30,000’

Channel 4 news claim: ‘More than 100,000 Tamils unaccounted for’(UN leak points to 'crimes against humanity' in Sri Lanka war.)

by Rajasingham Jayadevan

(April 17, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Sri Lanka’s effort to hide the civilian death toll in the war is now boomeranging on its own face, as the reports and news filed are progressively showing high number of casualties.

Soon after the war, the President publicly claimed zero casualties of civilians, but unfortunately he could not tighten the genie in the bottle for long and the extent of the casualties in very high numbers has been claimed by credible sources internationally.

Even the President’s brother is unable to hold on to the zero figures, has now claimed that estimated 30,000 LTTE cadres were killed in the battle front.

Pre-war reports and analysis confirm that LTTE fighters were estimated at 12,000 to 15,000 cadres. Of this, 12,000 according to government’s own claims were taken into captivity by the forces in the final war. Assuming the strength of the LTTE was the maximum15,000 cadres prior to its demise, death toll of 3,000 LTTE killed in the war will be a reasonable estimate.

Gotabaya’s claim of 30,000 deaths, unless the Sri Lanka ‘Sunday Times’ inadvertently misquoted the figure of 3,000 as 30,000 exposes that thousands were killed in the war as claimed by the UN Panel of Experts.

At one stage, the UN stuck to the death toll of 7,000 based on the best estimate available, but its latest report put the toll into many thousands without quoting any figures.

Interestingly, Channel 4 news that took a stand on the reporting on the war crimes in Sri Lanka, despite intimidation and the Government of Sri Lanka threatened to take legal action, came out with a much higher figure of missing civilians based on statistical evidence. In its news despatch of April 16, 2011, following the UN Expert Panel report, it reported that 110,000 civilians are missing by using a simple arithmetic calculation.

It said according to the authenticated census of 2008, the population in Vanni was 430,000. The statistics revealed by the government of the population in the post war internment camps was 290,000. The deficiency therefore is 110,000. In the well unshakeable LTTE boarder controls, it was difficult for the population to move out over a period. Therefore this deficiency cannot be attributed to movement of population. The manner in which the military advanced, the forces literally cornered the population of Vanni in the Nanthikkadal area. Even if 10% is discounted of the census figure as population movement, estimated population 67,000 may have been perished in the battle.

The government’s own account has progressed from Zero to Gotabaya’s latest claim of 30,000 deaths. By the time international effort take further momentum, Gotabaya’s may further multiply his claim to a worrying scale. Even establishing the accurate details of the 30,000 figure of the Defence Secretary will be a hell bent effort for any international effort due to hostilities shown by the Government of Sri Lanka for any probe.

Large scale movement of population to the north and the south was mere impossibility without passing through internment camps.

The claim of 30,000 by Gotabaya Rajapakse must have some statistical backing. These must be made public without delay as a starter to independently verify who the tigers were and who were not.