A New Revolutionary Wave: A New Warning?

"The most indubitable feature of a revolution is the direct interference of the masses in historical events. In ordinary times the state, be it monarchical or democratic, elevates itself above the nation, and history is made by specialists in that line of business - kings, ministers, bureaucrats, parliamentarians, journalists. But at those crucial moments when the old order becomes no longer endurable to the masses, they break over the barriers excluding them from the political arena,(...). The history of a revolution is for us first of all a history of the forcible entrance of the masses into the realm of rulership over their own destiny." - Leon Trotsky, Preface to History of the Russian Revolution

(February 07, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The political earthquake that began with the self-immolation of 26-year-old unemployed university graduate Muhammad Bouzizi in Tunisia in December 2010 has turned into a Tsunami generating ripple effects on the entire Arab world. Egypt considered the most important Arab country was on the brink of a revolution at the time of writing. The people of Egypt are writing the first pages of the revolution of the third millennium. While I was writing this note (on Friday evening), Aljazeera showed the situation at the Tahrir square full of protesters. It reported that Egyptian writers and artistes were also present in the square participating in the protest. Reverberation from the mass protests in Tunisia and Egypt continue to be felt around the Arab world as demonstrators have gathered on the streets of Yeman, Jordan and Sudan. Algerian rulers feeling the danger of popular uprising try to defuse tensions by lifting its 19-year state of emergency. They are sending shock waves throughout the Arab world, from Algiers to Ramallah, from Amman to Sana’a in Yemen. Noam Chomsky, the well-known dissident writer, commented on the events in the following words: "What’s happening is absolutely spectacular. The courage and determination and commitment of the demonstrators are remarkable. And whatever happens, these are moments that won’t be forgotten and are sure to have long-term consequences, as the fact that they overwhelmed the police, took Tahrir Square, are staying there in the face of organized pro-Mubarak mobs, organized by the government to try to either drive them out or to set up a situation in which the army will claim to have to move in to restore order and then to maybe install some kind of military rule, whatever. It’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen. But the events have been truly spectacular. And, of course, it’s all over the Middle East. In Yemen, in Jordan, just about everywhere, there are the major consequences".

These spectacular events have silenced many who in the past advocated that revolutions are unlikely in the current historical conjuncture that finally confirmed the victory of liberal system. What we have been witnessing is a revolution in its true sense whatever its outcome would be. The situation, as with any revolution, is changing with the passage of time. Any evaluation will undoubtedly be overtaken by events within a few hours or days. What causes peoples’ uprising? Who is on the streets? What would be the political implications? What are the attempts by the forces led by the Obama administration that stand for counter-revolution? Are the insurrectionary masses strong enough to face this counter revolutionary manipulations and strategies? Will revolution move beyond immediate demands for democratization? These are the questions people all over the world should seriously deliberate and discuss.

There is no doubt that these popular upheavals are largely led by workers, students and the unemployed men and women. Large disaffected sections of a middle class of professionals, public servants and petit-bourgeois have also joined the movement. In Egypt, where popular protests have reached a new crescendo, even judges have expressed their sympathies with the struggling masses against Hosni Mubarak dictatorship. If someone follows the recent reports of the World Bank, Egypt and Tunisia have recorded reasonably high rate of economic growth and prosperity. However, the World Bank and other international bodies have totally ignored or even tried to mask the bitter truth of high prosperity and growth. In Tunisia, unemployment has reached 18 per cent of the labor force. In Tunisia, the economy that has highly dependent on Tourism and the large portion of capital was invested in tourism and other export-oriented sectors. A typical example for uneven growth without substantial ripple effect or trickle-down effect! The situation in Egypt is no better. Close to 40 per cent of Egyptians are estimated to live under the poverty line. Uneven urban sprawl has left close to 9 million living in the slums of Cairo alone. Hence, the performance of the economies of the two countries as recorded by international agencies is highly misleading. Unemployment and poverty have risen in spite of economic growth! Market economy has also led to rampant corruption in the bureaucracy. The main demand by the street fighters is the elimination of poverty, unemployment, corruption and injustice. "Together we fight against poverty, corruption and injustice," the protesters at Sana’a University in Yemen chanted. So it was totally wrong to portray the uprisings in the Arab world as a campaign for democracy in spite the fact that democracy in a different sense is one of the demands of the insurrectionary masses. Masses need freedom of expression and assembly that they have already won on the street in order to get their deep problems resolved and not to stop the revolution at the point of establishing a so-called democratic regime.

The issue is how the revolution could reach its next phase. How will the reactionary forces led by the Mubarak regime within the country and the USA and EU outside it manipulate the masses to stop such an advance? The statement by Mubarak that he is keen to resign but is worried about that Egypt would fall into chaos in the event of his resignation shows the manipulations by the ruling regime. Ironically he is the person responsible for having plunged Egypt in chaos. It has been clear how the US would act. Noam Chomsky has mentioned the following scenario. "The United States, so far, is essentially following the usual playbook. I mean, there have been many times when some favored dictator has lost control or is in danger of losing control. There’s a kind of a standard routine—Marcos, Duvalier, Ceausescu, strongly supported by the United States and Britain, Suharto: keep supporting them as long as possible; then, when it becomes unsustainable—typically, say, if the army shifts sides—switch 180 degrees, claim to have been on the side of the people all along, erase the past, and then make whatever moves are possible to restore the old system under new names. That succeeds or fails depending on the circumstances". As it highly likely that Mubarak regime will fall soon, Obama administration has announced that an interim government should be formed making a ‘peaceful’ transition possible. They envision three scenarios. First, an interim government that includes some sections of the present regime plus liberal elements that are interested only in formal ‘democracy’ and to protect imperialist and Zionist interests in West Asia. Second scenario would be a provisional government of the people who are struggling to overthrow the present regime. This is essentially a step forward although it is not sure the directionality of this government in the medium and long run. As the Muslim Brotherhood, a banned party in Egypt, would be an integral part of this government, the US and its allies and Israel are worried that the Brotherhood, if a given a chance would probably cut deals on everything, place of the military in administration, Camp David peace agreement with Israel etc.

Analysts who look at the popular upheavals in the Arab world should place these developments in the global context that has been characterized by serious economic crises in the capitalist world. Financial collapse in 2007- 2010 was avoided by massive bail-out and part nationalizations of the banking system by advanced capitalist countries. Now the states are in crisis in Greece, Iceland, Ireland and Spain. What has been happening in the Arab world is another expression of the crisis in capitalistic system and gradual demise of the West.

Last but not least, it is imperative that the developments and popular uprisings in the Arab serve as a new warning to the rulers in many developing countries including the rulers of Sri Lanka. Many of these countries have similar regimes, or regimes that are leading in that direction. Earthquakes do not happen every day. But it happens occasionally. Crisises, uprisings, political tsunamis are always bad and warnings for the ruling classes. However, they should not be viewed by the classes below the same way. As Mao Zedong said long time ago ?"There is great chaos under heaven – the situation is excellent."

The writer teaches political economy at the University of Peradeniya. He can be reached at sumane_l@yahoo.com