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| YANGON, BURMA - NOVEMBER 05: A Burmese people looks at campaign poster of candidate at downtown on November 5, 2010 in Yangon, Burma. The imminent election in Myanmar, due to take place on November 7, has been heavily critisisced and branded a 'sham' by opposition politicians and the west due to the NLD (National League for Democracy) leader Aung San Suu Kyi being detained under house arrest.-Getty Image |
by Brig. (Rtd) Rahul K Bhonsle
(November 06, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Myanmar goes to elections on 7th November. Myanmar's state media warned citizens to vote "without fail" in the elections. "Every citizen who values democracy and wants democratic rule must cast their votes without fail," said an editorial in the New Light of Myanmar. "However, some people are inciting the people to refrain from voting in the elections. They are attempting to mislead the people who are walking along the road to multiparty democracy for a change of a new era with instigated words," it said. This was an oblique reference to the jailed leader Aung Suu Kyi who has asked the people and her supporters to boycott the polls.
While the Constitution of Myanmar which has been recently drafted at the behest of the military junta has no stipulation for compulsory voting the State media and other organs have been emphasizing to the people to exercise their right to vote. This will create some disconcert with Suu Kyi having asked the public not to vote as the government has not facilitated fair play by blocking her party. This may be taken amiss by the junta leadership in case they want to pursue a path of confrontation as enough grounds to detain her even after the present period is over on 13 November.
The call for boycott by Suu Kyi may also prevent anti junta parties as the National Democratic Force (NDF) which is a break away faction of the NLD from gaining votes as supporters may not turn up if it heeds to Suu Kyi. Than Nyein, a former political prisoner and Chairman of the NDF say, “It is our duty to carry on the democratic movement, within the legal fold. It’s the only tangible way to do politics. But others disagreed. So it is very difficult for us of course because we have to start from scratch amidst many accusations against us.” He fears that if his supporters do not turn up, the parties supported by the military will win hands down.
In all probability there would be a contest between the military junta and the opposition as well as the ethnic militant groups mainly to persuade the people to vote or to abstain respectively. What would be the legitimacy of elections if a large number of voters refrain from voting remains to be seen? However the main areas the Irrawaddy Valley is likely to see voting in large numbers as influence of the military may force many to come out or face consequences of disapproval of the military.
Many believe that the election verdict is largely known, with former general Thein Sein likely to return as the Prime Minister with his party comprising of a majority of former army colleagues occupying the front rows of the Parliament. Under the circumstances Suu Kyi’s struggle may not yield the desired results at least in the short term.
But there are other portends too, if the ethnic groups dissent and there is no voting in the periphery it would be difficult for the junta to rationalize the elections. With Suu Kyi also having given the call for boycott the credibility of the vote will be particularly low. What options the government exercises in that case remains to be seen. Daw Aung Suu Kyi may get another jail sentence in that case, for defying the regime. Possibly it is because of such fears that the Senior General Than Shwe has already taken an insurance policy by visiting his two powerful supporters, India and China. New Delhi and Beijing will certainly back the octogenarian general, so will he have to use the back up plan remains to be seen.
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