Popular vote Vs Popularity: To those questioning the role of Aung San Suu Kyi

"The regime is not immune. Look at General Ne Win, General Saw Maung, and General Tin Oo who died shockingly and disgracefully. There are also living dead army officers such as Brigadier Aung Gyi and Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt."

GUEST COLUMN BY DR. TINT SWE

(October 22, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Like everywhere, in Burma, there are always pros and cons as well as positives and negatives whenever a move is done from either side. By and large the military rulers made moves first and the opposition had to react. At times the opposition started the move ahead and the regime had to counter it.

When the people of Burma demonstrated in 1988, General Ne Win who had ruled for 26 years gave up. But the next two presidents tried to kill and quell the protest.

When the people voted for the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 1990, the then junta in the name of State Law and Order Restoration Council had to hurriedly act in response to the legitimate call for a new government and the parliament by issuing the historic announcement 1/90 on 27th July 1990 which assigned that all elected Parliamentarians were to merely draft a new constitution. However when the national convention to draft the constitution was held on 9th January 1993 the elected MPs constituted only 15.24% at the outset and in the later sessions it was reduced to barely 1.38%.

"A dead woman bites not." When Aung San Suu Kyi was attracting more and more crowds during her around-the-country tours, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) attempted to kill her on 30th May 2003. Fortunately she survived and the world was outraged. The junta had to respond with the announcement of the Roadmap to Democracy. The upcoming election is a result of that roadmap.

A fight against the dictatorship takes an exceptionally long time in Burma. Meanwhile both sides lost the so-called own men. From the NLD more than a hundred elected parliamentarians have died, three of them killed in the prisons and two assassinated outside the country. Meanwhile a number of intellectuals who have advocated for democracy collaborated with the regime. One of Aung San Suu Kyi's assistants turned hostile. Before the upcoming election, a few scholars are visiting abroad to lobby for the junta's election.

The dilemma also caused NLD causalities. After the unanimous decision was made on 29th March 2010 not to re-register, some leaders of the NLD left the party and formed the National Democratic Force (NDF) to field 164 candidates in the election to be held from 7th to 11th November this year. It is more than hearsay that NDF received funds from the junta's party USDP which will contest almost all seats.

The regime is not immune. Look at General Ne Win, General Saw Maung, and General Tin Oo who died shockingly and disgracefully. There are also living dead army officers such as Brigadier Aung Gyi and Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt.

So far, the opposition keeps the top leader alive. Although the party has been stripped of its legal status, all NLD members disallowed to contest and the constitution drafted to preclude a woman as head of state, Aung San Suu Kyi is still regarded as a person whose liberty might bring the regime down. The Junta is holding the election before she is freed. Only when she declared boycotting the election, the election commission made a correction and informed that she had the right to vote. The message to her people is that the people have the right to vote as well as the right not to vote.

Propaganda if effectively used can turn events upside down. Rumors can also efficiently mislead and misinform to some extent. Now and again the military intelligence has printed thousands of leaflets of Aung San Suu Kyi to defame her. There have been numerous mischievous articles about her in the state-run newspapers written by various pseudonyms. Almost all subordinates have been taught or ordered to defame Aung San Suu Kyi. A deserter (soldier) who fled to India told that Aung San Suu Kyi is the trouble maker.

In Burma the grass roots opinion cannot be correctly gauged by any means. Many of them are terrified, some of them are hoodwinked, a few of them have been bought and several of them do not have any comment. Looking back at the way the referendum was held the grass roots people realize that the military will be the winner and they do not see any alternative.

For the junta it is time to augment the campaign against her as she is scheduled to be released. It indicates that the junta leaders are not confident of their water-tight plan of new government formation when Aung San Suu Kyi will be free. So her popularity is rumor of the day for internal consumption because the world leaders including UN Secretary General are repetitively voicing their concerns.

Yes, in terms of numbers NLD is now down. NLD can't contest in the election. But NLD disagrees that election is not the sole path to democracy. NLD believes in the people who, if allowed to cast a vote or to express freely, will all go against military dictatorship. Since the junta announced the election laws and dates, the plan to transform the ethnic armed groups into border guards failed. Then the major ethnic groups officially declared that Aung San Suu Kyi is the national leader. That is the unity hardly ever acquired in the history of independent Burma. So qualitatively she is on the rise.

If she is inconsequential and her call for election boycott seems nothing, the junta should allow election observers from other nations. But in the second week of November the world will hear, not witness, the pre-typed "winner takes all announcement".

Then Aung San Suu Kyi and the people will have to start afresh the next phase of the struggle.

(Dr. Tin Swe is an elected member of Parliament from Burma from the NLD now living in F-15, Vikas Puri, New Delhi and can be reached at his mobile- 981-000-3286, e-mail drswe01@gmail.com)