Written by Day
(July 04, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Can you believe this? WihuluWansa (WW) has just proved, contrary to popular belief, with his rhetoric and ‘empty bravado’ against the Colombo Office of UNthat ‘Dr. Silva’ is very much smarter than him! The good news is and all indications are such that GOSL has rightfully so recognized that the best thing or the need of the ‘minute’ is to do, as a good measure of damage control, to ‘apologize’ profusely, genuinely and contritely for the gimmicks and playing for the gallery for the cheap popularity by one of its ministers. Sooner the better, before the other nations take it ‘wrong way’! I mean, for real! I will also explain elsewhere why Dr Silva is very much smarter than WW.
I will slice and dice the negative outcome that can come out of this situation. Sri Lanka is handfuls with controversies from how ‘Praba and family’ died to how the ‘cook’ at ‘Big Banana’ died. Or from Mrs. Satahsivam’s death to the story of abduction, rape and denial of justice to a 17 year old girl from Kalutara or a monk sodomizing an innocent kid. Or else we can go back to unwritten history to written history of Sri Lanka.
The last thing Sri Lanka needs right now, just after the victory over terrorism, tourism booming, country enjoining peace dividends after almost three decades, investors eagerly waiting to deploy their money, is rhetoric or empty bravado by a joker who happens to be a government Minister. I am not sure the Sri Lankan citizens, the innocent people like Asilin who sells Gotukola (Ginkoba) at Maharagama Sunday fair, Magilin who sells flowers at Kalutara Bhodi or Kathirin who sells ‘Jadi’ (salted fish) in Negambo are aware of the implications or dire consequences of conveying a veiled threat to a world body whose members can be anyone, a superpower to a nuclear power, an economic power to a tiger economy, a nation with energy resources to a nation with banana or diamonds.
If I am the President or Secretary Defence right now, I will go on national TV and tell ‘no protests are allowed within 100 yards of a foreign diplomatic mission of any nation’, to quickly gain what is already lost. I will tell ‘If anyone wants to ‘test’ me I will order my armed forces to stop them (protesters) by force, the force includes shooting to kill and questioning afterwards’. I will promulgate the laws needed, immediately banning any kind of protest, and assembly near or around a foreign mission other than to apply for a visa and release it in a famous ‘midnight gazette’.
We owe it more than to the foreign governments whose missions are located in Sri Lanka but to the terrified near and dear ones of the embassy staff back home or in Colombo.
How did the staff and families and their kith and kin back in Sri Lanka feel or easily, quickly and conveniently forget what they went through when Sri Lankan missions in India and Oslo, Norway were attacked recently. Did not GOSL and Sri Lankan pillory the Indian and Norwegian governments for the inadequate security measures that were in place or provided. Having suffered that way GOSL must more than anyone else feel the pain and suffering that could cause to others in such a situation and must not condone nonsense and empty bravado from any quarters or mischief makers in national dress with ‘verbal diarrhea’?
Failing above;
Scenario #1:
Due to incitement or being ‘paid’ by WW an unruly crowd with false or misguided patriotism gathers and surrounds the ‘Colombo Office’. The next thing happens in a logical sequence is a phone call from New York to Mr. President with a ‘friendly reminder’ (You would think!) about diplomatic protocol and the safety of staff and their families and property in foreign capitals.
Mr. President has two choices; to deploy police and military to disperse the crowd and put up roadblocks, if not already there, to maintain the peace and security. Or be cavalier about it; like ‘Stuff happens!’ or ‘Protesters will be protesters.’ I think Mr. President knows better.
If Mr. President does not believe what I believe; “Prevention is Better than Cure” then his Army and police will clash with ‘false patriots’ and it is good news or Manna from Heavens for any media, foreign or local, print or electronic, that depend on sensational journalism for their ratings and ‘Breaking News’ tickers. They will loop and loop it umpteenth time to the wider world to see the brutal force employed by high-handed military that is accused of human rights violations, against ‘innocent protesters’ participating in a peaceful protest. They will suppress or hide the fact that there is resemblance in this situation that of the American Embassy siege in Teheran by Iranian student protesters in 1979. The Drealam media such as TamilNet or the LTTE sympathetic media personnel such as DBS will undertake gleefully to ‘disseminate’ those visuals, free of charge to every nook and corner of the wider world rather to the world capitals and their gullible people. Unfortunately for innocent Sri Lankans this is more and more bad news, more and more misery and possible economic, travel, military and diplomatic sanctions.
Scenario # 2
If GOSL does condone or does not check WW’s ‘empty bravado’ or ‘Boru Hila’ he has alluded to and there is a siege, then the world body will initiate ‘military action’ for safety and security of its staff, families and properties due to the threat of violence, surrounding and hostage situation allegedly incited by WW.
We call it NEO Operation in the military. NEO-Non-combatant Evacuation Operation.
I will try to visualize how it is going to unfold and who gets the ‘mission’ etc. I want to reiterate that this is only an analysis, a Soldier’s Point of View, with my military know-how and the information that can be gathered from the ‘open source’ (Internet).
I intentionally, I say again, intentionally leave out or blank the very privileged information of capabilities, tactics, techniques or procedures of the unit or the units that might be called upon to respond. Moreover I would like to emphasize I have not seen preparations or heard of discussing any ‘options’ with regards to this threat of violence to the Colombo Office. But unlike Sri Lanka other countries ‘lean forward’ and they plan and have plans for possible scenarios and war game them thoroughly. The military leaders with vision will not close the stable once the horse has bolted, but before!
Now a Freudian slip has taken place through the tongue of WW or he let the cat out intentionally why should not we as soldiers think other agencies and nations might not be considering CONOPs (Contingency Operations)?
Please be aware that other nations have very robust ‘capability’ to deal with any contingency or in a hostage or barricade situation, which is most of the time ‘not employed overseas’ due to ‘political reasons’. If WW thinks he can do the same way his former friends, IUSF, do things; lock up poor, helpless and hapless vice-chancellors and lecturers in their offices for not yielding to Red Brothers’ nonsensical and laughable demands or send innocent university students and workers demonstrate, pelt stones and block the traffic, as a result get baton-charged then I am sad to say he or anyone thinks like him is sadly, highly and thoroughly mistaken. He cannot or will NOT be able to browbeat foreign diplomats or terrorize them thinking they would be panicky.
This scenario is purely hypothetical or notional. Once a global situation occurs we solders call it ‘a real world situation’, in this case say the world body office is under threat then Secretary General will ask for a manifest of people in Colombo Office and ask who wants the ‘mission’ to rescue. If by chance US citizen are there then US Ambassador to the world body will be in touch with POTUS-President of United States. Then he, as the popular legend has it, dials ‘911’, a phone rings at the 82nd Airborne Division HQ and the Commanding General (CG) answers the phone. The POTUS gives the mission and the CG replies: Yes, Sir! 82nd Airborne Division is America’s Guard of Honor. The POTUS ends the conversation with ‘Have a Nice Day!’
Some information for you to read; The Fort Bragg-based outfit is once again the military's Global Response Force (GRF), The 82nd Airborne Division got its job back as the rapid reaction mission was stripped away in 2007 as the Pentagon stretched its forces to fight wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its deployment to Haiti's earthquake recovery is the first test of the resurrected unit.
The paratroopers proudly claimed that role for decades, under names such as the "Division Ready Brigade-DRB," a status that bolstered the airborne moniker: "You call, we fall." Real world situations are such they had just finished 10 days of outdoor field training in sub-freezing temperatures when they got the call to deploy to a tropical climate. The last time 82nd performed a ‘forced entry’ mission that was in 1989 in Panama codenamed Operation Just Cause. All the paratroopers who jumped into Panama got what is so coveted to all the paratroopers. They call it ‘Mustard Stain’- a brown star on parachutist wings to signify that he or she has jumped in combat.
In September 1994, President Bill Clinton launched Operation Uphold Democracy. The 82nd paratroopers were on the planes and the doors opened to drop in ‘MasTact’ (Mass Tactical) but the Haitian ruling military decided to surrender and the paratroopers did not get a chance jump in combat therefore did not get ‘mustard satin’ and were disappointed.
The global response designation carries as much romance as reality. It is a designation that comes with bragging rights. The brigade is ready to begin deployment within 18 hours, and there is a sense of pride in the first responder status. The division’ is able to project no-notice combat power and conduct forced-entry missions as the U.S. Global Response Force. In this capacity, the brigade will be on 24/7 standby, ready to deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours.
The Historical Example: The Invasion of Grenada, codenamed Operation Urgent Fury, was a 1983 U.S.-led invasion of Grenada, a Caribbean island nation with a population of just over 100,000 located 100 miles (160 km) north of Venezuela. It was triggered by a military coup which ousted a brief revolutionary government. The successful invasion led to a change of government. The Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), then chaired by Eugenia Charles, the Prime Minister of Dominica; as well as the nations of Barbados, and Jamaica appealed to the United States for assistance. According to a reporter for the The New York Times, this formal appeal was at the behest of the U.S. government, which had already decided to take military action. U.S. officials cited the murder of Bishop and general political instability in a country near U.S. borders, as well as the presence of U.S. medical students at St. George's University on Grenada, as reasons for military action.
The best and bright diplomats do not yield but ‘wag the finger’ to threats, intimidation, saber-rattling or brinkmanship but ‘tip the hat’ to ‘reason’ and ‘logic’. They are professionals and very professional. Most of them value self-respect more than anything else, and some may deviate due to very interests of his government, which is understandable. A Government, instead of being antagonistic, ruffling the feathers or stepping on the toes of the officials of other governments, which may not be to your liking can always organize a golf tournament, to have a drink and start an intellectual dialog and ‘overawe’ them with your ‘wisdom and knowledge’ in very humble manner. They are going to definitely respect you. Then they are going to influence their governments to ‘revisit’ the whole gamut of problems GOSL has had, have or are experiencing. They are going to tell their respective governments to ‘soften’ their stance on GOSL. Isn’t it a ‘plus’ though it might not be the GSP Plus? I know it for a fact and leave at that.
Sri Lanka is a very proud nation and Sri Lankans are very literate and intelligent, but I fervently hope they do not kid themselves to believe that they can win in war against all the nations on planet earth. What I mean is one might have ‘guts’, ‘hope’ and ‘will power’ but Sri Lanka simply do not have ‘technology’ or ‘resources’ against a relentless ‘Air Campaign’, I say again ‘Air Campaign’. You see on TV bombs falling on Tora Bora Mountains but you do not see the pictures of the dead, be they terrorists or the collateral. Tora Bora is just a mountain range and the dead do not have any clue about ‘air power ’or what it can do unfortunately as they are very much primitive people, are not educated enough. But remember cities in Sri Lanka are concrete jungles and its military camps are concentrated with soldiers, unlike bad guys sparsely deployed in AFPAK. And WW or his ilk will not get to decide whether a 500lbs, 2000lbs or MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) will fall from what aircraft; F-15, Stealth or B-52. My attempt here is not scare anyone, belittle any nation but as Sun Tzu said; know yourself, and know your enemy, in this case other nations and their militaries before come up with empty bravado.
I know WW will ‘sharp shoot’ me and ask if US or any other western nation is so mighty why UBL is not caught yet. Answer lies in the way UBL and Western militaries operate. UBL has gone low tech, as Somali warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid did, who was one of the main targets of Operation Restore Hope. The western militaries rely heavily on SIGINT (Signal intelligence) and MASINT (Measurement intelligence) as they do not have required HUMINT (Human intelligence) capability due to lack of ‘native speakers’ on ground. I am not sure whether WW will understand that as he cannot discern the difference between ’Green card’ and ‘US Citizenship!’
A very vast majority ridicule Dr. Silva for his behavior and alleged actions attributed to his goon squads. Has anyone tried to understand his behavior with an open mind or taking into consideration the wholesomeness or unwholesome of his and his alleged narco-friends’ actions? We know at times he raised ‘only a finger’ and some other times ‘only his hand’ and he has warned you too that we would not hesitate or is not afraid to use the government issued side-arm. All these actions are against ‘locals’. His high-handed actions have always been against some media institution or TV station here or a journalist there, some ‘graduates’ over there and some labourers over here. Has he ever threatened foreigners with violence or against diplomatic institutions in Sri Lanka? No!
It says a lot about him and his shrewd psychology when Dr. Silva secures a UK visa for an alleged narco-friend without any issue when Ph. Dees in visa lines are burning in the scorching sun to get a visa to go and study or lecture in UK. It tells without a doubt that Dr. Silva is in the Ambassadors’ and High commissioners’ good books. There is no bad blood between him and diplomatic corps. They are ‘mango friends’ rather bosom friends. Whatever his humble or otherwise beginning is he is very street smart. In the final analysis Dr Silva is much smarter than WihiluWansa.
Last but not least how come a country which boasts of a near 100% literacy rate, a country that has produced top doctors, engineers, micro-biologists, lawyers, counter-terrorism, and counter-insurgency experts etc would send nothing but a joker to the parliament with the highest preferential vote in a district? That fails logic and defies description!
Have a Nice Day!
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