Uncertainty in Thailand

Reconciliation a far cry

by Maj-Gen Ashok K. Mehta (retd)

(July 10, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian)After the 69-day battle for Bangkok between the government and Red Shirts, Thailand is not the same any more. While few are wearing Yellow, (the colour of the monarchy, the elite and the Army-supported coalition government led by the Democratic Party) or Red (symbol of the rural base of supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) Shirts, uncertainty and tension are palpable over the surface.

Three processes are underway in Bangkok: investigation over the alleged Army crackdown which broke the barricades killing 90 and wounding 2000 persons; political reforms; and reconciliation. Visiting Thailand one month after the street battles, one can still detect scars of Red rage and Army-police riposte despite the forgive-and-forgive teeshirts bearing We Love Thailand, We Love Central World, Together We Can, and We Love Ratchaprasong.

To recap, Ratchaprasong intersection in the heart of Bangkok’s commercial centre has been immortalised as the fulcrum of the Red Shirts’ protest rallies, their occupation stretching on one side to Siam Square, on the other, CentralWorld and on the third, leaning on to a group of five-star hotels, including the Four Seasons. Above Ratchaprasong is Bangkok’s famous Sky Train providing overhead cover for the protestors. The two other protest sites were the barricades at Lumphini Park and Wat Pathun Wanaran. The military made two attempts to disperse Red Shirts, first on April 10 and then between May 14 and 19.

Two other events reverberated across Bangkok on June 22. The cremation of renegade Maj-Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol, the military mastermind behind the barricades who was shot in the head by a sniper on May 13 outside the Red Shirt defences while being interviewed by a foreign reporter near Rama IV Road. His daughter, ironically a Yellow Shirt supporter, became the rallying point to what people called “farewell to a fighter”. Soon after his death, military action was launched by the Army at Ratchaprasong intersection.

The first explosion to shatter the uneasy calm after May 19 occurred on June 22 near the headquarters of the Bhoom Jai Thai party, an ally of the government. A 15-kg TNT bomb blew up just hours before the General’s funeral, triggering off conspiracy theories, the most popular being the government was behind it to justify the continuation of the emergency decree.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democratic Party and the Yellow Shirts People’s Alliance for Democracy, has constituted the Reform Thailand and Reconciliation panel, led by former Prime Minister Ananda Panyarachun which the firebrand Red Shirt leader and MP Jatuporn Prompan has described as a sham and sarcastically suggested that the proposed panel leader should first reform himself.

The opposition United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has said that the reform panel is to obfuscate the enquiry into the massacre of Red Shirts by the Army. Red Shirt leaders have called for an independent investigation into the incidents from March 12 to May 19, appointed a team of UDD lawyers to bring court cases against the government and are reported to be planning new strategies to oust the government.

The reforms process could take up to three years though the government’s term is till December 23, 2011, when fresh elections are to be held. Mr Prompan believes that it is not possible for Red Shirts to regroup in the next few months as the government has fanned out troops into the province for plucking out Red Shirts. The priority, therefore, must be to seek justice for those killed and learn lessons from the battle for Bangkok, Prompan added. The leadership during the protest campaign was diffused and it lacked negotiating skills. At one stage, Prime Minister Vejjajiva had offered to hold elections in November 2010 but Red Shirts demanded the government step down and immediate elections be held. Had they accepted the government’s offer, it would have been a different ballgame. Once Maj-Gen Sawasdipol was killed, the protest strategy dissipated.

The Army is said to be at the peak of its strength after its decisive role in security operations to crack down on anti-government protestors in May. Its triumph has boosted the chances of the ruling Democratic Party-led coalition remaining in power longer and even winning the next elections. There are reports that Army operations were a foul up and led to excessive use of force, a charge made by the Opposition. Prime Minister Vejjajiva is unlikely to apologise for the Army action. Army Chief Anupong Paojunda has dismissed reports of Army high-handedness and has said violence was instigated from within Red Shirts and terrorists mingling with them. “Thai Army never shoots its own people”, he added.

Another Red Shirt rally in Bangkok is not likely anytime soon. Rather they will go underground and could start a low-level insurgency, complimenting the ongoing southern uprising.

The Bangkok Post on June 21 published the results of a poll one month after the protests. The findings revealed that the majority of those who participated in the poll felt that the political situation had not improved and the chances of reconciliation were from low to moderate. The economy is shaky with a decline in hotel occupancy ranging from 20 to 40 per cent, the worst in 40 years. The government is bailing out the tourism industry, which is expected to pick up by December provided Bangkok remains on an even keel.

A by-election is due later this month — July 25 (one was held on June 6 and won by the ruling party). The UDD is fielding its revolutionary leader, Natthawut Saikua, who was caught on video allegedly calling on his supporters to burn Bangkok. The shadow of the enigmatic Thaksin Shinawatra does not seem to fade away as his popularity is deep-rooted among the rural masses who swarmed the streets of Bangkok. The government is believed to have the names of most people who took part in the protest campaign: it is in three categories: hardcore Red Shirt members, UDD members and those who joined the rallies for financial reasons and to see Bangkok.

The Shinawatra supporters who financed the protests are being investigated for their role in the civil unrest. At least 83 individuals and firms suspected of having links with Red Shirts are being questioned by “the Department of Special Investigations’. Another 422 people have been arrested in connection with the protests, including a Briton and an Australian who were accused of violating the emergency laws.

The King in Thailand is a divine and revered figure who has historically brokered reconciliation. This time around, the ailing King was silent though everyone knows his loyalists wear yellow shirts. Before dispersing from Ratchaprosang on May 19, Red Shirts torched the entire CentralWorld complex, the commercial heart of Thailand. Reforms may be on the way but reconciliation is a far cry. The economic anchor of South-East Asia has come unstuck. Near the debris of Central World, Thais can be seen praying to Lord Ganesh for prosperity and peace.