Election fear in Burma

by Dr. Tint Swe
(The views expressed are his own)

(June 21, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) When the military junta seized power after a bloody crackdown on the nationwide uprising in 1988 the first message to the people was “no more 1988 type rebellion again”. It was the students who were at the forefront of most of anti-government activities. Therefore at the expense of education the students were systematically taken away from politics.

The “No-88” effort was successful to some extent as the students could rise again only in 1996 but not on a nationwide scale. But the Buddhists monks led the absolute peaceful protest in 2007 though the potential threat from the monks had been meticulously reduced since 1988.

The 1990 election result was the worst set back the State Law and Order Restoration Council, the then junta had least expected. The SLORC needed to hurry for a contingency plan. They gave an excuse of lack of a constitution to form the government and then put that task of drafting the constitution on the shoulders of those elected. Meanwhile all parties and elected representatives were suppressed so that the call for parliament and government was effectively thwarted. Over 200 MPs were detained, over 30 fled the country, and over 200 political parties deregistered.

When it came to constitution, they realized that the people’s representatives would write a genuine one that would protect the country and favor the people’s desire and would not leave any room for the military to play extraordinary role. So they came up with an operational plan. It was the idea of the national convention which was convened on 9th January 1993.

But not all went well though the plan was in military style. The national convention was adjourned nine times and took 14 years 11 months and 12 days to finish the constitution. The longest interval was when Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from the second house arrest and the convention was paralyzed for 8 years 1 month and 8 days.

Meanwhile the military’s attempt to kill Aung San Suu Kyi misfired. But the masterminds of the 2003 Depayin Massacre Khin Nyunt (2003-2004) and then Soe Win (2004-2007) were promoted as Prime Ministers one after the other. Each of the Prime Ministers of the junta had made history. Soe Win sawSaw Maung was replaced by Than Shwe and he died of nervous breakdown. Intelligence chief Khin Nyunt is under house arrest, till today. The current PM Thein Sein has shed army uniform and, much against the election laws, will contest the election in this year.

The new codeword for 2010 election is “No 1990 election set back again”. The military-like planning in the form of a roadmap has taken a long time. The constitution was adopted by a sham referendum in the midst of a killer cyclone Nargis, with an incredible result of over 94% votes in favour. “Believe it or not” happens many times in Burma.

As the next step Aung San Suu Kyi has to be precluded from the election process. Thanks to an American swimmer who trespassed into her residence, she could be placed under house arrest for violation of the regulations of her house arrest. The election laws were framed so as to prevent all those sentenced or jailed including Aung San Suu Kyi and 2000 others.

All arrangements for the next election are evidently different from those of 1990 election. In 1990 political parties were encouraged and given incentives. This time parties have to exclude all political prisoners and need huge funds to participate in the elections. There were 235 parties in 1990 but there are only 42 parties till date wanting to contest in 2010 election.

The government of 1990 stayed like a referee but this time it is the sole contender. Election commissioners who were mostly civil servants are replaced by the military and civilian loyalists. The so-called laws are restrictive. Instead of an election fever there is an election fear in Burma.

In 1990 all those who are paid from state budget had to quit jobs to join the political parties. Soldiers, policemen and all civil servants had to leave behind the disgraced Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) which was the single official party of Burma for the last 26 years. But this time the entire military, police, and so-called social organizations are ordered to go for the Union Solidarity and Development Party headed by the Prime Minister in office.

The rules, the referee and the regime are in place. The free and fair practice of 1990 election can’t be expected this time. The election may be a repeat of the referendum. Voters lists are not freely available, the atmosphere is tense, election officers have to be hand-picked, the army commanders have to instruct for only yes votes for their men, advance voting will be practised extensively, the election commission will make announcement like the referendum and etc. The elected representatives from democracy side will be shown offside. Penalties will be awarded by USDP.

The international community may consider the election as an internal affair of Burma. So they are now dealing with potential parties which might be seen in the next parliament. But it is certain that foreign governments do not see any credible party like the National League for Democracy (NLD) which will not contest in 2010 election.

The NLD is boycotting 2010 election. The pro-democracy movement has been telling how unacceptable the upcoming election is. The responsible governments and international bodies will also criticize the conduct of that election.

However it is not a worthless effort. NLD, the movement and responsible governments are making the ground to grow democracy seeds in the next season. They predict a good monsoon rain, may be late. In 1990, the then powerful National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) made completely wrong pre-election assessment. Not all generals win all the battles. There is still hope for democrats.

(Dr. Tin Swe is an elected member of Parliament from Burma from the NLD now living in F-15, Vikas Puri, New Delhi and can be reached at his mobile- 981-000-3286, e-mail drswe01@gmail.com)